Lead: Exit polls conducted on Nov. 5, 2025 across New York City, New Jersey, Virginia and California show a mix of local and national drivers shaping outcomes. Voters repeatedly cited economic pressures and affordability as decisive issues in city and gubernatorial contests, while many respondents said their vote was motivated by opposition to President Trump rather than support for him. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani won a clear majority on a platform focused on cost-of-living concerns; in New Jersey and Virginia, Democratic challengers prevailed among voters worried about the economy; and California’s Proposition 50 passed largely as a rebuke to Republican redistricting moves in other states.
Key takeaways
- Exit polling covered contests in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia and a California ballot measure on Nov. 5, 2025, with interviews conducted at polling places immediately after voting.
- National politics mattered: more respondents across these locations said they voted to oppose President Trump than to support him, and overall disapproval of his job performance exceeded approval in these Democratic-leaning areas.
- Housing and cost of living topped the agenda in New York City; 7 in 10 voters there called housing a major problem, and renters—who comprised over half of the electorate—strongly backed Zohran Mamdani.
- In New Jersey, economic concerns split along issue lines: voters prioritizing taxes and electricity problems leaned to Jack Ciattarelli, while those naming the broader economy as most important favored Sherrill.
- Virginia’s economy-focused voters backed Abigail Spanberger by more than 20 points versus Winsome Earle-Sears; independents shifted toward Spanberger compared with 2021 patterns.
- Women were a decisive bloc for Democrats in both gubernatorial contests, with margins larger than Kamala Harris’s national performance in 2024.
- California’s Prop 50 — a temporary measure to allow map changes in response to redistricting elsewhere—passed largely because voters wanted to counter Republican-led redistricting in other states, not because voters endorsed the measure as an ideal redistricting method.
Background
The 2025 off-year contests occurred in a political environment still shaped by the presidency of Donald Trump and by persistent economic pressures for many voters. New York City, New Jersey and Virginia are states and jurisdictions that have trended Democratic in recent cycles, but local dynamics—affordability in New York City, energy costs in New Jersey, and shifting independent voters in Virginia—created distinct electoral battlegrounds. Exit polls are snapshots of who voted and why; they combine voter self-reporting with demographic breakdowns to identify which issues drove choices at the ballot box.
Historically, off-year elections can amplify local issues while remaining sensitive to national cues. For example, a mayoral race in New York City often centers on housing and municipal services, but national figures and polarization can still shape turnout and preferences. In gubernatorial races, party control and policy stances on taxes, energy and social issues interact with voters’ pocketbook concerns. California’s ballot measures, including Prop 50, reflect a state-level response to interstate redistricting battles that many voters framed as partisan maneuvers beyond their borders.
Main event
New York City’s mayoral contest ended with Zohran Mamdani defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo on a message that emphasized affordability, especially housing. Exit polling showed housing ranked as the top issue for most NYC voters, and Mamdani won a large share of those who prioritized cost-of-living issues. He carried the majority of renters and dominated among voters under 30 and those who had moved to the city within the last decade.
Cuomo performed better among older voters, moderates and self-identified conservatives, and he led among Jewish voters—many of whom said a candidate’s stance on Israel was important to their choice. Voters who decided in the last month of the campaign skewed toward Cuomo, but that late movement was insufficient to overcome Mamdani’s pre-October advantage.
Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, finished a distant third and did not consolidate self-identified Republicans, many of whom split toward Cuomo. Exit-poll hypotheticals suggest that a two-way race between Mamdani and Cuomo would still have favored Mamdani given his coalition of young and first-time city voters.
In New Jersey and Virginia, economic concerns drove results in gubernatorial contests. In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli attracted voters whose top concerns were taxes and utility costs, while voters who named the broader economy as their principal issue favored Sherrill. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger beat Winsome Earle-Sears by a wide margin among voters who prioritized the economy, and independents swung back to the Democratic column after earlier backing for Republican candidates in 2021.
Meanwhile in California, Proposition 50—sponsored by Gov. Gavin Newsom—passed. Many “Yes” voters told pollsters they supported the measure primarily to counter Republican-led redistricting elsewhere rather than because they preferred the mechanics of the proposal itself. The result signals voter willingness to use state-level tools in response to perceived national partisan maneuvers.
Analysis & implications
The exit-poll pattern that more voters cited opposition to President Trump as a motivator than support for him suggests nationalization of local races in Democratic-leaning jurisdictions. In areas where Trump’s approval was net negative, candidates and ballot measures benefitted when they framed contests as a check on his influence. That dynamic does not uniformly determine outcomes—local issues like housing and energy costs still shaped winners—but it elevated turnout among constituencies hostile to the president’s agenda.
Economically focused voters produced split results depending on how campaigns contested the framing. Where challengers linked specific local problems—housing supply in New York City, electricity costs in New Jersey—to concrete proposals, they won voters prioritizing those problems. In Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats captured large margins among women and independents, groups that appear to have been persuaded by economic messaging and candidate profiles.
The generational divide in New York City underscores changing urban electorates: Mamdani’s strong performance among voters under 30 and first-time mayoral voters points to an electorate reshaped by recent migration patterns and rising housing pressures. That suggests future municipal campaigns will need targeted approaches for younger and newer residents to address affordability and services.
California’s Prop 50 result illustrates another effect: voters using ballot measures tactically in reaction to nationwide redistricting disputes. Even when voters did not view the measure as the ideal technical solution, many supported it as a countermeasure. That sets a precedent for future state-level responses to perceived out-of-state partisan actions and could encourage more defensive ballot measures.
Comparison & data
| Contest | Top issue cited | Key demographic advantage |
|---|---|---|
| New York City mayor | Cost of living/housing (70% called it a major problem) | Renters & voters under 30 |
| New Jersey governor | Taxes & electricity / broader economy | Women & independents for Democrats |
| Virginia governor | Economy | Independents swung to Democrat; >20pt gap among economy voters |
| California Prop 50 | Countering out-of-state redistricting | Voters seeking to blunt Republican map changes |
The table summarizes the exit-poll signal across contests: local policy issues determined day-to-day voter preferences while national dynamics—particularly attitudes toward President Trump—shaped the overall contours of choices in traditionally Democratic places. Exit polls show magnitude (for example, seven in 10 NYC voters flagged housing as a major problem) rather than precise vote totals, which are supplied by official tallies.
Reactions & quotes
Officials, analysts and voters offered quick responses as results and exit poll summaries appeared.
Many respondents said their vote in these contests was driven more by opposition to President Trump than by support for him, a dynamic that helped shape results in Democratic-leaning jurisdictions.
CBS News exit-poll analysis (paraphrase)
Campaign teams described the outcomes as validation that voters prioritized affordability and local fixes to cost-of-living pressures.
Campaign statements (paraphrased)
Political observers noted the return of independents to Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, calling it an early indicator of how swing voters may behave in 2026 federal contests.
Nonpartisan political analyst (paraphrase)
Unconfirmed
- Whether the exact degree of Trump-driven voting in every precinct fully determined final margins — exit polls capture self-reported motivation, not ballot attribution by precinct.
- The long-term durability of Mamdani’s coalition beyond local issues such as housing; how it will translate into broader state or national influence remains unproven.
- Detailed causal links between Prop 50 support and specific demographic groups’ future behavior on redistricting remain to be validated by post-election studies.
Bottom line
The Nov. 5 exit polls depict an electorate balancing local material concerns with national political sentiment. Cost-of-living issues—especially housing in New York City—were decisive for winners in municipal and statewide races, while opposition to President Trump functioned as a cross-cutting motivator in these Democratic-leaning places. Independents and women were pivotal in the gubernatorial results, suggesting targeted economic messaging remains politically potent.
Looking ahead, these patterns signal that candidates who combine concrete local solutions with an ability to navigate nationalized political themes will have an advantage in similar jurisdictions. Exit-poll findings should be treated as directional: they illuminate voter priorities and coalitions but require confirmation from final tallies and deeper post-election analysis.
Sources
- CBS News – Exit poll report, Nov. 5, 2025 (news organization, exit-poll analysis)
- New York City Board of Elections (official election authority)
- New Jersey Division of Elections (official election authority)
- Virginia Department of Elections (official election authority)
- California Secretary of State (official election authority)