Breakout Candidates for 2026: One Prospect from Every MLB System

Lead

As clubs and fans look toward the 2026 calendar year, every farm system has at least one young player who could take a major step forward. This report picks a single breakout candidate from each MLB organization, identifying who could rise up prospect lists, reach the majors faster than expected, or re-establish value after injury. The selections reflect performances and measurable tools from 2025 — including Dominican Summer League slashes, strikeout rates, velocity marks and AFL showings — and aim to project which players are primed to change their outlooks in 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Juan Sanchez (Blue Jays) posted a .341/.439/.565 line with eight homers in 56 DSL games, showing advanced exit velocities from a 6-foot-3 frame.
• Luis De León (Orioles) finished 2025 with a 1.47 ERA over his final seven starts and struck out 14.5 K/9, then added a 2.76 AFL ERA with 22 K in 16 1/3 innings and a sinker up to 98.5 mph.
• Nathan Flewelling (Rays) received 461 plate appearances between Single-A and High-A in 2025 and combined a .230/.393/.341 line with six homers while still age 18.
• Dorian Soto (Red Sox) signed for $1.4 million as an international shortstop and showed switch-hit upside despite a wrist issue that limited his right-handed production.
• Dax Kilby (Yankees) reached Single-A the year he was drafted and slashed .353/.457/.441 in 18 pro games, walking 13 times versus 11 strikeouts.

Background

Predicting breakouts is central to prospect evaluation because a single season of development can turn a fringe prospect into a Top 100 name or elevate a club’s long-term plans. In recent years, international signings, college arms rehabbing from surgery, and prep hitters with pro-ready approaches have all produced surprise surges. The 2025 season offered a wealth of signals: standout DSL campaigns, high-octane AFL performances, and prep draftees who adapted quickly to pro wood-bat competition.

Teams are also navigating new development infrastructures and shifting roster-management math — service-time considerations, Rule 5 exposure and free-agent windows all shape how clubs prioritize rapid promotion. Injuries further complicate forecasts: some prospects enter 2026 trying to re-assert value after Tommy John or wrist repairs, while others are simply younger than their competition and could make outsized strides with more plate appearances or innings.

Main Event

Each organization’s pick reflects a balance of 2025 results and future projection. For example, Juan Sanchez’s DSL slash (.341/.439/.565) and eight homers from 56 games emphasize both contact and power that evaluators saw translate to measurable exit velocities. That kind of two-way profile — hit and power plus size — often precipitates rapid climbs up a system’s board if matched by repeatable mechanics stateside.

On the pitching side, Luis De León’s late-2025 run (1.47 ERA over seven starts, 14.5 K/9) plus his 2.76 AFL ERA and 22 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings underscore a youngster whose three-pitch mix already plays at a high level. Similarly, Kevin Defrank’s 6-foot-5 frame and triple-digit heater make him one of the most talked-about teenage arms; his sinker and sweeping slider project as potential frontline stuff if workload and command follow.

Positional prospects include multifaceted candidates such as Dorian Soto, a $1.4 million international shortstop who projects power from both sides after showing better contact from the left in his debut year, and Nathan Flewelling, a teenage catcher who accrued 461 pro plate appearances in 2025 and posted an OBP (.393) that hints at advanced pitch recognition despite modest slugging so far.

Prep draftees who reached full-season ball quickly — Dax Kilby at Single-A, Juan Cabada in the Cubs system — illustrate another breakout pathway: the immediate-adaptation breakout, where a short sample of high-quality at-bats or innings validates scouting grades and can vault a player up organizational rankings.

Analysis & Implications

When one prospect breaks out, the ripple effects are practical and strategic. A hitter who suddenly commands an above-average ISO or a pitcher who sustains a mid-to-high 90s fastball with a third offering can accelerate a team’s timeline to fill MLB-level needs internally rather than via trade or free agency. For clubs with impending payroll decisions, internal cost-controlled contributors are especially valuable.

Development velocity also matters: age-relative performance (how a 17- or 18-year-old fares against older competition) is a strong predictor of future success. Players such as Yorger Bautista and Gabriel Davalillo posted power and plate-discipline figures in Dominican Summer League play that, given their ages, suggest above-average future outcomes if they refine contact skills and remain healthy.

Health and usage are limiting variables. Arms returning from Tommy John (e.g., Ryan Forcucci, Adam Serwinowski) or hitters with wrist/hamstring trouble must demonstrate durability before their upside fully counts. Organizations will monitor pitch counts, recovery markers and mechanical consistency closely; a managed 2026 workload could be the difference between a breakout and a stalled projection.

Comparison & Data

The table highlights a cross-section of breakout catalysts: high slash lines and power in DSL play, late-season pitching dominance, large sample plate exposure at a young age, and elite raw metrics (velocity/exit velo). These signals differ by context — age, level, league — so development staff must translate tools into repeatable in-game performance.

Reactions & Quotes

Club evaluators and scouts responded to these prospects in ways that align with the observable metrics. Below are representative remarks and the context in which they were made.

Before a full-season promotion, a team scout summarized the appeal of an 18-year-old slugger, noting how his swing profile and measured reps suggested a quick adjustment to wood bats. The comment followed a private showcase where exit velocities and ability to drive breaking offerings stood out.

“He shows above-average power that plays from both sides and stays in the zone long enough to barrel breaking stuff.”

Team scout (organization source)

Club development staff also flagged an arm returning from surgery for his repeatable delivery and improved spin profile, which helped explain a late-season AFL flourish. The quote below was given after staff reviewed video and pitch-tracking data.

“Mechanics looked cleaner, and the spin/extension data give us confidence he can sustain his stuff as he builds innings.”

Player-development official (team source)

Conversely, a front-office analytics director cautioned that young power names with high strikeout rates must show contact gains before their prospect grade materially rises. That assessment came after a season of mixed outcomes where high exit velocity did not always correlate with consistent offensive production.

“Raw power and metrics are necessary but not sufficient — contact profile and chase rate drive sustainable offensive value.”

Analytics director (team source)

Unconfirmed

• Positional shifts, such as the potential move of Khadim Diaw from catcher to outfield, remain unconfirmed until the club announces a plan or the player logs reps at the new position in games.
• Long-term health outcomes for pitchers returning from Tommy John (e.g., Ryan Forcucci) and internal-brace procedures (David Hagaman) are uncertain; on-field performance in 2026 will determine their durability.
• Translation of DSL/ALF raw power to full-season U.S. ballparks is not guaranteed — several prospects with high exit velocities still need improved contact rates for consistent results.

Bottom Line

The 2026 season offers fertile ground for a new wave of prospects to redefine their career arcs. Whether driven by age-relative dominance, improved command and secondary offerings on the mound, or power and plate-discipline gains at the plate, the candidates highlighted here have tangible indicators that justify heightened attention from clubs and fans.

For organizations, a breakout may alter roster planning and payroll calculus; for players, it can accelerate service-time timelines and increase trade or promotion value. Monitoring workload, injury indicators and repeatability — not just peak metrics — will be critical to distinguishing sustainable breakouts from transitory spikes.

Sources

• MLB.com — Organizational prospect report (media)
• Baseball America — Prospect coverage and international signings (media)
• FanGraphs — Performance metrics and prospect data (analytics/media)