With Selection Sunday two days away, On3’s Bracketology shows a largely settled 68-team field but several bid-stealers remain alive after Saturday’s conference finals. The latest projection — last updated at 9 am ET on 3/14 — preserves Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida as the projected 1-seeds while mapping the First Four and the last teams fighting for inclusion. As conference tournaments finish, a handful of results will still reshuffle seed lines and determine who punches a ticket to March.
Key Takeaways
- Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida remain the top projected seeds heading into Selection Sunday.
- Last four byes: Santa Clara, NC State, UCF and Miami (OH) occupy the final protected spots in the 68-team field.
- Last four in: Missouri, SMU, VCU and Texas are currently slotted into the field; SDSU, Auburn, Oklahoma and Indiana sit just outside.
- First Four matchups (Dayton) project 16-seed play-ins: SIENA vs. Howard and LEHIGH vs. Southern; 11-seed play-ins: Missouri vs. SMU and VCU vs. Texas.
- Regionals show marquee pairings: Duke is projected in the East top line, Florida in the South, Michigan in the Midwest and Arizona in the West.
- Iowa State moved up to a 2-seed after a Big 12 Tournament victory over Texas Tech; Purdue returns to the 2-line after a deep Big Ten run.
- Florida’s SEC Tournament win over Kentucky and Michigan’s win over Ohio State were key results that stabilized top-line seeding.
Background
The NCAA selection process leans heavily on the NET Rankings, an algorithm that classifies each result into quadrants and combines efficiency metrics to help the committee evaluate teams. NET is not the sole determinant, but it is a central, transparent baseline the committee cites each March. Bracketology attempts to model how the committee will interpret NET alongside strength of schedule, quality wins, and late-season form to seed the 68-team bracket.
Every March, conference tournaments create volatility: mid-major champions earn automatic bids while bubble teams can be bumped by surprise winners. Historically, the final 48 hours before Selection Sunday produce the most movement as games against top opponents, neutral-site wins and upset losses alter the committee’s calculus. This year, the mix of Power Five resumes and high-performing mid-majors has left a compact bubble where a single upset can push multiple teams in or out.
Main Event
Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in this projection after surviving a close postseason meeting with Clemson; the Blue Devils are assured a 1-seed but can lock the top overall spot outright by winning the ACC Tournament. That finish preserved Duke’s standing atop the bracket while leaving room for movement if another contender strings together wins over the next two days.
Iowa State climbed to a 2-seed following a Big 12 Tournament victory against Texas Tech on March 11, 2026, in Kansas City, Missouri. The Cyclones’ earlier loss to Arizona had limited damage to their profile, and the conference title game win pushed them ahead of Illinois in the current seeding hierarchy.
Florida’s SEC Tournament triumph — including a win over Kentucky — reinforced the Gators’ projected 1-seed in the South region. A continued run through the SEC bracket would make Florida difficult to dislodge from the top line; UConn remains the closest challenger, having advanced to the Big East Championship against St. John’s.
Michigan held its No. 2 overall projection after dispatching Ohio State in postseason play. The Wolverines retain a path to the No. 1 overall seed, but that scenario requires winning the Big Ten Tournament and favorable results from peers on the other top lines. Purdue’s surge through the Big Ten moved the Boilermakers onto the 2-seed line in this projection.
Arizona’s win over Iowa State in a postseason matchup kept the Wildcats in contention for a 1-seed; they would need a Big 12 title and losses by those above to crack the top overall slot. On the bubble, Missouri, SMU, VCU and Texas currently fill the final at-large slots while San Diego State, Auburn, Oklahoma and Indiana are the first four out.
Analysis & Implications
The remaining conference finals and their winners will determine whether the bubble tightens or relaxes. An upset by a low-seed automatic qualifier would remove one at-large berth, likely ejecting a mid-tier Power Five squad or a high-major mid-major from the projected field. Conversely, if expected favorites win, several borderline teams should hold their projected spots.
Selection committee emphasis on NET quadrants and quality road/neutral wins means teams with fewer marquee victories remain vulnerable despite strong overall records. That dynamic advantages teams that scheduled tough nonconference opponents and booked quadrant-one wins late in the season. For bubble teams, an additional quadrant-one or quadrant-two road victory in the final weekend can be decisive.
The presence of multiple bid-stealers — automatic qualifiers from smaller conferences — heightens the importance of conference tournament outcomes. Mid-majors that win their league tournaments remove at-large spots, creating cascading effects across seed lines and possibly shifting First Four matchups. TV windows and travel logistics will also be affected if last-minute changes alter geographic regional placements.
Comparison & Data
| Projected Line | 1-seeds | 2-seeds |
|---|---|---|
| Top line (overall) | Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida | Iowa State, UConn, Houston, Purdue |
The table above summarizes the projected 1- and 2-seed groups in this update. While all four 1-seeds are listed, the actual order of overall No. 1 through No. 4 can still shift based on conference-championship outcomes. The projected First Four and the final at-large bubble are particularly fluid: Missouri, SMU, VCU and Texas occupy the final slots with SDSU, Auburn, Oklahoma and Indiana as the first four out.
Reactions & Quotes
Selection criteria and bracket projections drew immediate attention from pundits and officials after Saturday’s results. Two short, relevant statements frame the current landscape:
NET remains the primary analytic tool the committee uses to compare teams across conferences.
NCAA (official guidance)
Bracketology is a projection built to mirror committee decisions, not the committee’s final bracket.
On3 Bracketology (sports analysis)
Unconfirmed
- Duke’s claim on the No. 1 overall seed is not finalized; it depends on ACC Tournament results and outcomes elsewhere.
- Florida’s ability to remain above UConn for a 1-seed hinges on continued SEC wins; the swap is possible if Florida loses and UConn wins the Big East.
- Any listed First Four pairings or the order of the projected 1-line could change with late upset results in conference finals.
Bottom Line
Two days before Selection Sunday, the broad outline of the 68-team field is visible but not immutable. Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida look like the safest bets for 1-seeds, and a small cluster of at-large candidates are on the knife edge; a single upset by a lower-seeded conference champion could erase an at-large berth. Bubble teams should emphasize measurable quality wins and clear metrics on NET to make their final case to the committee.
On3 will continue daily Bracketology updates through Selection Sunday with live revisions after any key results. Readers tracking the bubble should monitor conference finals results and NET quadrant outcomes closely — those data points will determine which teams celebrate a berth and which will be waiting on Selection Sunday.