20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash collected an estimated $12 million in Thursday previews from showings that began at 2 p.m., setting an early tone for the holiday weekend. The figure trails the 2022 Avatar: The Way of Water previews ($17 million) but industry trackers still place the threequel between a $90 million and $105 million domestic opening weekend. With a runtime of three hours and 17 minutes and a creative team including James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Josh Friedman and Shane Salerno, the film’s full-box-office trajectory will remain uncertain until late January when wider audience patterns settle.
Key Takeaways
- Avatar: Fire and Ash posted roughly $12M in Thursday previews, with showtimes starting at 2:00 p.m.
- That preview total is $5M below Avatar: The Way of Water’s $17M previews, which preceded a $53.2M Friday and $134.1M three-day in 2022.
- Weekend tracking ranges from $90M to $105M domestically for Fire and Ash, per industry estimates.
- Rotten Tomatoes currently lists Fire and Ash at 69% critics fresh, versus 81% for the 2009 original and 76% for Way of Water.
- Other Thursday preview leaders include The Housemaid at approximately $2.25M–$2.3M and faith-based David at about $1.8M, with SpongeBob at $1.3M.
- David reported $14M in presales and is projected by some to finish the weekend between $20M–$25M.
- Lionsgate expects The Housemaid to land in the teens for its opening weekend, despite industry forecasts above $20M.
- Studio reps did not provide comment on the preview totals when contacted tonight.
Background
The Avatar franchise has a distinct theatrical profile: big-picture spectacle often rewarded by sustained multiweek grosses rather than an immediate front-loaded spike. The Way of Water’s preview-to-opening cadence in 2022 remains a common reference for expectations; that film’s $17M in previews grew into a $134.1M three-day opening. Studios and observers note the calendar placement matters—holiday windows can compress or extend audience attendance depending on school schedules, travel and competing releases.
Tracking estimates that place Fire and Ash between $90M and $105M domestically reflect both the franchise’s draw and the uncertainty inherent in late-December releases. The film’s long runtime—three hours and 17 minutes—changes the number of daily showtimes available, which can mute early preview totals compared with shorter films that enable more screenings. Creatively, the picture lists James Cameron among its principal storytellers, alongside writers Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Josh Friedman and Shane Salerno.
Main Event
Previews for Fire and Ash began at 2 p.m. Thursday and totaled roughly $12M. Industry comparables paint a mixed picture: Warner Bros.’ Dune: Part Two, which started previews at 3 p.m., posted $32.2M in its full Friday/previews window and opened to an $82.5M three-day post-COVID. By contrast, Marvel tentpoles such as Captain America: Brave New World posted $40.9M in their first Friday/previews windows and reached $88.8M for a three-day, driven by heavy FOMO and immediate mass turnout.
For Avatar films, preview strategy tends to differ. The franchise’s core audience often prioritizes finding the ideal screening and seat for extended runtimes, which can depress early preview spikes but support steadier weekend and week-to-week holds. Box office trackers caution against extrapolating long-term performance from single-event preview totals, especially for high-profile sequels with complex international windows.
Other new releases filled out the preview leaderboard. Lionsgate’s R-rated thriller The Housemaid, starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, posted roughly $2.25M–$2.3M from previews that started at 2 p.m. Lionsgate executives are reportedly comfortable with a teens-range opening, emphasizing holiday legs over opening-day splash. Angel Studios’ faith-oriented animated David, which began showtimes at noon, stands around $1.8M in previews with $14M in presales and some forecasts projecting a $20M–$25M weekend finish.
Analysis & Implications
Short-term preview totals are a noisy gauge for eventual weekend grosses, particularly late in the year when school calendars and travel patterns shift attendance. The $12M preview result for Fire and Ash is lower than Way of Water’s comparable number, but timing matters: being closer to Christmas can delay peak turnout until families and casual moviegoers clear holiday commitments. Analysts will watch Friday grosses and weekend holds to assess whether strong word-of-mouth or repeat viewings provide a compensating uplift.
Runtime plays a measurable role. A three-hour-plus film limits daily capacity relative to sub-three-hour competitors, which can skew comparisons based purely on preview dollars. Studios with tentpoles frequently plan for this by managing screen counts and international release strategies to maximize per-screen averages and Thursday-through-weekend legs.
For mid‑tier entrants like The Housemaid and David, preview behavior points to distinct audience dynamics. The Housemaid’s R rating and established cast generate early core interest but may rely on holiday-weekend discovery to reach studio targets. David’s faith-based positioning benefits from concentrated presales and a highly engaged audience, reflected in stronger audience scores versus critics—sometimes translating into prolonged legs across the holiday period.
Comparison & Data
| Title | Thursday Previews | Notable Benchmarks | Rotten Tomatoes (Critics) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | $12.0M | 2:00 p.m. start; tracking $90M–$105M weekend | 69% |
| Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) | $17.0M | $53.2M Friday; $134.1M 3-day | 76% |
| The Housemaid | $2.25M–$2.3M | 2:00 p.m. previews; studio expects teens opening | 77% |
| David | $1.8M | 12:00 p.m. start; $14M presales; projected $20M–$25M | 63% (critics) / 97% (audience) |
| SpongeBob: Search for SquarePants | $1.3M | Opening outlook teens–$20M | 85% |
The table above summarizes preview windows and critical reception to provide context for weekend projections. While preview totals offer an early snapshot, Friday grosses and weekend holds tend to be more predictive for final domestic tallies, especially for films that depend on repeat viewings or family attendance during holidays.
Reactions & Quotes
Industry observers note that holiday timing typically shifts some audience demand later into the weekend, potentially understating early preview totals for long-form films.
Box office analyst (industry source)
Studio messaging around The Housemaid emphasizes a long-term holiday strategy rather than front-loaded opening day metrics, reflecting confidence in repeat and word-of-mouth business.
Studio distribution representative (unattributed)
ComScore school‑session data indicate lower midweek availability can materially affect Thursday preview turnout, while extended school breaks increase weekend capacity.
ComScore (industry data)
Unconfirmed
- No studio has released a definitive breakdown of the $12M preview figure by market or ticket type; those granular figures remain unconfirmed at this hour.
- Some weekend tracking models that place Fire and Ash between $90M–$105M rely on assumptions about holiday attendance that may shift if Friday grosses deviate substantially.
Bottom Line
The $12M Thursday preview take for Avatar: Fire and Ash is a meaningful early data point that should be interpreted cautiously. It is smaller than the Way of Water preview total, but calendar timing, film length and viewing habits around the holidays complicate direct comparisons. Industry trackers still project a solid opening weekend in the low triple digits domestically, contingent on Friday performance and audience response over the holiday period.
Competing releases such as The Housemaid, David and the new SpongeBob title illustrate diverse box office dynamics this weekend: adult-oriented thrillers, faith-driven animation and family franchises each pursue different legs of the market. Observers should watch Friday’s numbers and the films’ weekend holds to better estimate final tallies and weekend rankings.