— PFF’s research team released game-by-game grades and matchup data for NFL Week 1, highlighting team strengths and weaknesses — from Dallas’ short-yardage issues to Buffalo’s red-zone rushing dominance — to help fans, fantasy players and bettors prepare for kickoff.
Key Takeaways
- Dallas allowed conversions on 77.0% of plays with 1 yard or fewer to go, a major short-yardage liability against Philadelphia’s league-leading short-yardage offense.
- Buffalo relied on a potent red-zone ground attack in 2024: James Cook (12) and Josh Allen (11) combined for 23 red-zone rushing TDs.
- Kansas City’s RPO and screen-heavy game (17.0% RPO usage; 2,383 YAC in 2024) will test the Chargers’ front and edge discipline.
- Tristan Wirfs’ absence (knee) weakens Tampa Bay’s OL; Atlanta’s upgraded pass rush must pressure Baker Mayfield to derail Tampa’s clean-pocket efficiency.
- Edge defenders Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson accounted for outsized shares of their teams’ pressures in 2024 and will be central in the Bengals–Browns matchup.
- New personnel — Will Campbell in New England, Tyler Warren in Indianapolis, Darren Waller in Miami — change matchup dynamics early in the season.
- Several quarterback-versus-scheme matchups (Herbert vs. Spagnuolo, Lamar Jackson vs. Bills’ middle-of-field coverage) are key storylines that could swing Week 1 results.
Verified Facts
Dak Prescott maintained a top-tier deep-passing grade in 2024 (93.7) despite a modest raw completion rate on deep attempts; adjusted metrics show drops affected outcomes. The Cowboys’ weakness on plays with 1 yard or fewer — allowing conversions at a 77.0% clip last season — contrasts sharply with Philadelphia, which led the league with 57 such conversions, including 34 quarterback sneaks.
Kansas City’s offense remains built around RPOs and the screen/ YAC game: the Chiefs used RPOs on 17.0% of plays last year, while producing 2,383 yards after the catch in 2024 and totaling 18,048 YAC since 2018, the most in the league. Those tendencies create clear tasks for the Chargers’ defense, which must limit space after the catch and avoid overcommitting to run fits.
Buffalo’s red-zone shift is verifiable: after just one red-zone rushing TD across 2022–23, James Cook and Josh Allen combined for 23 in 2024. That ground efficiency continued into the playoffs, when Buffalo ran 14 times for 57 red-zone yards and three TDs in a single game versus Baltimore.
Pass-rush concentration is another measurable factor. Trey Hendrickson produced 31.1% of his team’s pressures in 2024, leading all defenders, while Myles Garrett accounted for 24.9% of Cleveland’s pressures. Teams facing either player must prioritize pass-protection schematics and quick-release concepts.
Context & Impact
Personnel changes and rookie arrivals shift several matchups immediately. New England’s offensive line grade (54.2 in 2024) ranked near the bottom; adding Will Campbell (fourth overall pick) aims to reduce a 35.9% pressure rate allowed on dropbacks. Indianapolis invested a first-round pick at tight end after ranking 31st in TE receiving yards in 2024; Tyler Warren’s YAC profile at Penn State suggests a targeted upgrade in contested and after-contact situations.
Injury statuses and scheme hires also matter. Seattle’s hire of Klint Kubiak points to more outside-zone, under-center runs that should leverage Kenneth Walker III’s strengths. Conversely, Tampa Bay will need to adapt without Tristan Wirfs, who posted a 94.1 PFF pass-blocking grade and an extremely low pressure-allowed rate in 2024.
For bettors and fantasy managers, these matchups emphasize context over raw volume: clean-pocket production, red-zone usage, and opponent-specific pressure rates (for example, Rams’ 54% pressure rate on third-and-7+ situations in 2024) are better predictors for single-game outcomes than season totals alone.
Practical implications
- Prioritize running-game matchups in fantasy lineups for Buffalo and teams with red-zone rushing success.
- Avoid starting quarterbacks who face elite, concentrated pass rushers unless protections are upgraded.
- Lean on teams with proven play-action or YAC engines (Detroit, Kansas City) when projecting high-efficiency passing performances.
“Our week-to-week grades are designed to isolate matchup advantages and expose how schematic tendencies might create opportunities or problems on game day.”
PFF Research Team
Unconfirmed
- Tristan Wirfs’ game availability is listed with a knee issue; official game-day status may change.
- Andrew Thomas’ timeline for returning to full availability for the Giants was reported as a positive factor but official practice designations were pending at publication.
- Any in-season returns from players who missed 2024 (for example Darren Waller returning from a year out) should be monitored for health and snap counts.
Bottom Line
PFF’s Week 1 compendium highlights that early-season outcomes will hinge on matchup-specific metrics — short-yardage conversion rates, concentrated pass-rush production, RPO/screen usage and red-zone rushing efficiency. Those measurable edges should guide game planning, fantasy starts and wagering decisions in Week 1.