Traders and investors in U.S. markets on Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025, kept stock futures largely unchanged ahead of the August nonfarm payrolls report due Friday; the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record while mixed private payroll data and strong corporate results drove selective gains.
Key Takeaways
- Dow futures were up about 4 points (0.01%); S&P 500 futures rose roughly 0.09%; Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 0.2%.
- The S&P 500 hit a new closing high on Thursday amid renewed risk appetite.
- ADP private payrolls came in weaker than expected, increasing speculation about Fed policy moves.
- CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed about a 97% chance of a rate cut at the Sept. 17 meeting.
- Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast a 75,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for August.
- Broadcom reported stronger-than-expected results and raised its revenue outlook, supporting AI-related names.
- After-hours movers included Lululemon (shares down >13%), DocuSign (up ~5%), and Amneal (approved drug news).
Verified Facts
On Thursday, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up about 4 points, or roughly 0.01%, while S&P 500 futures were virtually flat, up about 0.09%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained approximately 0.2% as investors positioned ahead of the Labor Department’s August jobs release scheduled for Friday morning.
Private payrolls data from ADP released earlier this week fell short of expectations, signaling slower job growth in the private sector. Market participants are watching whether the official nonfarm payrolls figure corroborates that slowdown, since the Labor Department number typically carries greater weight for policymakers.
According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, futures markets are pricing in about a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate at the Sept. 17 policy meeting. That pricing reflects investors’ interpretation of recent data and corporate signals about demand and hiring.
| Index | Futures Move | Week-to-Date |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | +4 points (0.01%) | +0.2% |
| S&P 500 | +0.09% | +0.7% |
| Nasdaq Composite / 100 | +0.2% (Nasdaq 100) | Nasdaq Composite +1.2% |
Corporate earnings influenced sentiment on Thursday evening. Broadcom reported adjusted EPS of $1.69 on revenue of $15.59 billion for its fiscal third quarter, beating EPS estimates of $1.65 while missing the revenue consensus of $15.83 billion. Broadcom guided to about $17.4 billion in revenue for the current quarter versus the $17.02 billion analysts had expected; shares rose more than 4% in extended trading.
Other after-hours movers: Lululemon reported $2.53 billion in Q2 revenue, slightly below the $2.54 billion consensus and cut its outlook, sending shares down over 13%. DocuSign posted adjusted EPS of $0.92 on $801 million in revenue, beating expectations and rising about 5% after hours. Amneal received FDA approval for an extended-release form of risperidone for adults with bipolar I disorder and schizophrenia, prompting a share uptick.
Context & Impact
The nonfarm payrolls reading is the week’s focal point because it directly influences the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus. A materially softer-than-expected report could increase the odds and perceived timing of one or more rate cuts, while a stronger print could temper those expectations.
Markets reacted to a mix of macro signs: fresh highs in equity benchmarks point to resilient risk appetite, but slowing private hiring and uneven corporate results underline uneven economic momentum. Technology and AI-exposed names have benefited from chipmakers’ upbeat commentary, but consumer-facing companies showed strain in parts of their U.S. businesses.
- Potential market reactions to a weak payrolls print: short-term equity gains on higher cut odds, tighter credit spreads easing; downside risk if weakness signals a broader economic slowdown.
- Potential reaction to a strong payrolls print: bond yields could rise and equity gains could slow as rate-cut expectations are pushed out.
“Tomorrow’s jobs report will be the deciding factor, but so far the data points to a slowdown in the labor market,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Chris Larkin, E-Trade from Morgan Stanley
Unconfirmed
- Whether weaker private payrolls will fully translate into a comparable decline in the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls figure.
- Whether Broadcom’s strong report will sustain a broader, persistent rally across all AI-exposed sectors.
- Any change in Fed decision-making beyond what fed funds futures currently imply is subject to incoming data surprises.
Bottom Line
As markets await Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls release, traders remain cautious but receptive to data that could justify a September rate cut. Near-term moves will likely hinge on the payrolls print and on how corporate results shape risk appetite.