The ‘thorny’ issues that threaten to derail a Russia-Ukraine peace deal

Lead

Russia, Ukraine and the United States have signalled a tentative narrowing of differences over a deal to end nearly four years of full-scale war, but negotiators say a few deeply contentious issues remain unresolved. Key disputes include control of parts of Donetsk and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, now held by Russian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet European leaders in France on 6 January as talks continue, yet any single sticking point could collapse progress. The lack of mutual trust between Kyiv and Moscow underpins much of the difficulty in translating diplomatic momentum into an enforceable accord.

Key Takeaways

• Negotiations are described by participants as nearing a final stage, but leaders warn that “one or two very thorny” issues could still block a deal.
• Russia controls most of Luhansk and slightly more than 75% of Donetsk; President Putin continues to press for the whole Donbas region.
• Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear plant with six reactors, has been under Russian occupation since March 2022 and its reactors have been in cold shutdown for over three years.
• Zelensky has proposed mutual withdrawals to create a demilitarised or free economic zone policed by international forces; Russia’s political and military leadership have shown little appetite for such concessions.
• The Institute for the Study of War estimates that, at current rates, Russian forces could take the remainder of Donetsk by August 2027 — a projection that depends on continued momentum.
• Ukraine estimates war-related losses at about $800 billion (£600 billion); Russia holds roughly €210 billion (£183 billion) in European assets that Washington suggests could be a funding source.
• Kyiv asks for security guarantees and to retain an 800,000-strong military; Russia rejects the presence of European troops on Ukrainian soil.
• Public sentiment in Ukraine appears divided: polls cited by Kyiv show 87% want peace while 85% oppose withdrawing from Donbas, complicating any territorial settlement without a referendum.

Background

The conflict that expanded into full-scale war in February 2022 has roots in earlier tensions over Crimea and the Donbas since 2014, producing prolonged territorial disputes and deep political mistrust. Russia’s seizure of the Zaporizhzhia plant in March 2022 introduced a novel nuclear-security dimension: the plant’s six reactors are offline and survive on external power to prevent a catastrophic failure. Economic and human costs have been enormous — Ukraine estimates losses around $800 billion — and reparations, reconstruction funding and asset seizures are central negotiation topics. Multiple external actors, including the United States and European states, have been mediators and potential guarantors, but their proposals must bridge sharply different red lines from Moscow and Kyiv.

Territorial control on the ground is uneven: Russian forces occupy large parts of Luhansk and the majority of Donetsk, but key urban strongholds such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk remain contested. Kyiv has resisted ceding populated territory in law and practice, noting that hundreds of thousands of civilians live in the disputed areas. Meanwhile, Russia’s leadership frames territorial aims as non-negotiable and its generals report continued advances. Both sides exhibit signs of military and political exhaustion, which creates openings for diplomacy even as it raises the risk of sudden operational shifts.

Main Event

Diplomacy accelerated after public comments that negotiators were close to agreement, yet senior figures repeatedly emphasise unresolved “thorny” points. Ukrainian officials say their next diplomatic step is a meeting of Zelensky with European leaders in France on 6 January, while Moscow has described talks as at a final stage. Washington has circulated a 20-point plan that touches on territory, security guarantees and the management of Zaporizhzhia; two of the plan’s most sensitive items concern Donbas control and the nuclear site’s governance.

Zelensky has floated a compromise under which Ukrainian forces would pull back from parts of Donetsk to create a demilitarised or special economic zone policed by Ukraine, conditional on reciprocal Russian withdrawals and international policing of the contact line. Kyiv argues such an arrangement would preserve legal sovereignty while reducing immediate battlefield friction. Moscow, however, has so far pressed for full incorporation of Donbas territories into Russia and has not publicly accepted the notion of a neutral, internationally supervised zone under Ukrainian authority.

On the nuclear dimension, Ukraine says Zaporizhzhia should be demilitarised and converted to a free economic zone; Washington has proposed some form of joint management involving the US, Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv prefers joint US–Ukraine administration with shared control over electricity allocation, whereas Russia’s state nuclear agency Rosatom insists only Russia can guarantee and run the site. Rebuilding the destroyed Kakhovka hydropower dam — a key part of restoring reliable cooling and power flows to the plant — would also require large-scale reconstruction and funding.

Analysis & Implications

Territorial compromises over Donetsk would be politically explosive in Kyiv because the area contains hundreds of thousands of civilians and is embedded in Ukraine’s constitutional framework. Any formal transfer or long-term alteration of administrative control risks domestic backlash and could trigger demands for a referendum, which itself would require a ceasefire window. That political sensitivity reduces Kyiv’s bargaining bandwidth and raises the bar for any deal’s legitimacy.

The Zaporizhzhia plant presents both an acute safety hazard and a diplomatic bargaining chip. Safeguarding nuclear installations demands continuous, depoliticised technical oversight; proposals that mix military presence with commercial or political control increase the risk of accidents. An agreement that places the plant under internationally supervised technical management could reduce the immediate nuclear risk but would require a level of operational trust that neither side currently exhibits.

Security guarantees are another knotty question. Kyiv seeks assurances functionally similar to NATO collective-defence commitments while wanting to retain a large standing armed force. Moscow rejects foreign troop deployments and European forces on Ukrainian soil. A compromise may involve bespoke, multilateral guarantees with enforceable monitoring mechanisms — but design and enforcement are difficult in the absence of mutual confidence and robust verification tools.

Economics and reparations will shape post‑conflict stability. Estimates of Ukraine’s losses near $800 billion create pressure for a large reconstruction package; proposals to tap frozen Russian assets (estimated at about €210 billion in Europe) have been floated, but legal and political hurdles remain. Financing, conditionality and governance of reconstruction funds will determine how quickly Ukraine can rebuild and how durable any political settlement becomes.

Comparison & Data

The table summarises the principal numerical markers that shape bargaining leverage: territorial control percentages, the nuclear plant’s technical status, and the scale of economic losses. Those figures drive each side’s red lines — territorial claims, safety imperatives, and the scope of reconstruction finance — and therefore will be central to any final text.

Reactions & Quotes

Officials and analysts have offered terse, pointed reactions as negotiations proceed, reflecting the trust deficit between capitals.

I don’t trust Russians and… I don’t trust Putin, and he doesn’t want success for Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelensky (quoted to BBC)

Zelensky’s remark underlines Kyiv’s scepticism about Russian intentions and its insistence that any settlement be ratified domestically.

If the authorities in Kyiv don’t want to settle this business peacefully, we’ll resolve all the problems before us by military means.

Vladimir Putin (reported comment)

That statement, cited in public comments from Moscow, reflects the Kremlin’s continued willingness to use force if diplomacy stalls, a factor that shapes Kyiv’s demand for robust security guarantees.

Only one entity can run it and ensure its safety.

Alexei Likachev, Rosatom (on Zaporizhzhia)

Rosatom’s position emphasises Russia’s insistence on operational control at the nuclear plant, complicating proposals for international management.

Unconfirmed

• The reported drone strike targeting a Putin residence in Novgorod cited by Russian authorities has not been independently corroborated and was denied by Kyiv.
• Kremlin statements that Donbas could end up with no troops at all (neither Russian nor Ukrainian) are politically ambiguous and lack published implementation details.
• Proposals to use frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian reconstruction remain subject to legal, diplomatic and practical hurdles and no binding mechanism has been agreed publicly.

Bottom Line

Diplomacy appears to have narrowed some differences, but the Gordian knots are familiar: territory, nuclear safety and enforceable security guarantees. Each issue combines legal, technical and political elements that require trust, verification and credible enforcement — conditions that are currently in short supply. A feasible deal would need concrete monitoring mechanisms, international technical teams for nuclear safety, and a transparent financing plan for reconstruction to win both domestic legitimacy in Ukraine and acceptance in Moscow.

Absent clear, enforceable mechanisms and a way to assuage domestic political concerns in Kyiv, any agreement risks rapid unraveling. The coming diplomatic steps — including Zelensky’s meeting in France on 6 January — will test whether negotiators can translate near‑term momentum into durable arrangements or merely postpone further fighting.

Sources

• BBC News (news report)
• Institute for the Study of War (thinktank analysis)
• Rosatom (official state nuclear agency)