Lead
Three and a half weeks after their last game, Ohio State opens its College Football Playoff quarterfinal against Miami with a chance to move past a Big Ten Championship loss earlier this month. Miami arrives having won its first-round game at Texas A&M and is making its first appearance in the 12-team Playoff. The matchup — the first postseason meeting between the programs since the 2002 BCS title game — will hinge on Ohio State’s offensive line, play-calling and whether the Buckeyes can solve long-standing red-zone issues. Bucknuts staffers weigh the Xs and Os, injury implications and offer score predictions ahead of the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal.
Key Takeaways
- Layoff: Ohio State has had a 3.5-week break since the Big Ten title game, a factor staffers say can bring rest or rust depending on preparation.
- Head-to-head history: This is the teams’ first postseason meeting since the 2002 BCS National Championship Game, a touchstone for many Bucknuts writers.
- Miami’s status: The Hurricanes are in their first appearance in the 12-team College Football Playoff and advanced by beating Texas A&M in the opening round.
- Coaching note: Ryan Day has reclaimed on-field offensive play-calling duties, a change staffers largely view as positive for late-game management.
- Trench matchup: Ohio State’s offensive line versus Miami’s defensive front (including Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor) is widely seen as the game’s decisive matchup.
- Red zone concern: Buckeyes’ struggles inside the 20, highlighted in the Big Ten title game, were a primary focus during the multi-week break.
- Consensus pick: Bucknuts staff aggregate favors Ohio State, with a consensus projection of Ohio State 25, Miami 12.
Background
The Buckeyes ended their regular season with a run into the Big Ten Championship Game but fell there at the start of the month, creating a narrative of unfinished business as the Playoff begins. That loss interrupted an otherwise dominant season and left questions about Ohio State’s short-yardage execution and late-game play-calling. Miami, under Mario Cristobal, has experienced a revival: after years of inconsistent results the Hurricanes claimed a marquee first-round victory at Texas A&M to reach the quarterfinals.
Historically, the programs met on the biggest stage in 2002, a game that remains vivid for Buckeye fans and staffers alike. The current Playoff structure — now a 12-team field in its second year — gives teams added weeks and different rest patterns, which affects preparation and availability. Ohio State enters with the possibility, should it advance, of becoming the first program in its history to win back-to-back national championships in the 12-team era; that historical angle amplifies scrutiny on strategy, personnel and late-game decision-making.
Main Event
Game planning centers on several clear points: Ohio State must re-establish its offensive identity without falling into the red-zone traps that cost them in the conference final. Staffers highlighted wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate as primary weapons who must be featured early and often if the Buckeyes are to stress Miami’s secondary. Ryan Day’s return to play-calling was presented as a tactical move to exploit his postseason experience and in-game adjustments.
The trenches will decide much. Miami’s defensive front, led by edge talent and interior disruptors, presents the best pressure unit Ohio State has faced this season according to multiple staff voices. If Ohio State’s O-line — including the possible start of Gabe VanSickle at right guard — can recreate the first-half form that carried much of the season, Buckeye quarterbacks will have time to target matchup opportunities downfield.
On the other side, Miami’s offense operates through playmakers such as Malachi Toney and running back Mark Fletcher Jr., with Carson Beck’s tempo and pocket time central to their success. Bucknuts writers repeatedly emphasized that pressure on Beck and strong gap discipline vs. the run are the path to forcing Miami out of rhythm. Special teams and situational execution (third-and-long, red zone) were also raised as likely swing factors for a game projected to be controlled by defense.
Analysis & Implications
If Ohio State controls the line of scrimmage, the broader implications are significant: advancing would keep the Buckeyes on track for a rare repeat in modern college football and sustain the program’s recruiting and national momentum. Conversely, a Miami win would validate Cristobal’s project and mark a watershed moment for the Hurricanes’ national standing in the CFP era. Staff analysis noted that postseason breaks have asymmetric effects — teams that used the time to cure injuries and sharpen niche packages can gain an edge, but the loss of competitive reps can sap timing.
Ryan Day’s play-calling reassignment matters beyond schematic wrinkles: staffers argued it centralizes in-game tempo control and third-down sequencing with the head coach, potentially avoiding earlier red-zone predictability. Still, analysts cautioned against over-attributing seasonal success to a single decision, noting that stability and play execution remain decisive. In short, Day’s role reduces a variable but doesn’t erase execution risks on both sides of the ball.
From a macro perspective, the matchup tests how the Playoff’s expanded format reshapes preparation strategy across programs. Teams that navigate longer layoffs successfully could set a blueprint for deeper runs, especially if they pair veteran coaching adjustments with depth up front. The contest will therefore be watched not just for who advances, but for which program demonstrates better adaptation to this postseason cadence.
Comparison & Data
| Staff | Score Prediction |
|---|---|
| Patrick Murphy | Ohio State 27, Miami 13 |
| Steve Helwagen | Ohio State 26, Miami 13 |
| Dave Biddle | Ohio State 28, Miami 13 |
| Dan Rubin | Ohio State 27, Miami 13 |
| Garrick Hodge | Ohio State 21, Miami 10 |
| Jonah Booker | Ohio State 24, Miami 14 |
| Bax | Ohio State 27, Miami 10 |
| Staff Consensus | Ohio State 25, Miami 12 |
The range of staff scores clusters around low-to-mid 20s for Ohio State and low-to-mid teens for Miami; that distribution reflects a view that defense and trenches will suppress big scoring. The table illustrates both the median expectation and the consistency of sources: most writers project Ohio State winning by a roughly two-possession margin.
Reactions & Quotes
If Ohio State’s offensive line plays like it did early in the season, “the Buckeyes will win the national championship,” one staffer summarized.
Patrick Murphy / Bucknuts staff
On Ryan Day calling plays: “It’s a positive — his postseason experience matters,” another writer said.
Dan Rubin / Bucknuts staff
About Miami’s offense: “Pressure Carson Beck; if you do, you force mistakes,” was a recurring theme among analysts.
Various Bucknuts staff contributors
Unconfirmed
- Exact starter designation: Gabe VanSickle is widely presumed to start at right guard, but official depth charts could differ on game day.
- Play-calling history: Reports suggest Ryan Day had been heavily involved in late-game calls this season; whether this represents a dramatic in-season change remains partially unconfirmed.
- Injury status: The health of players listed as having limped (e.g., Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate) improved per staff discussion, but final game-day statuses are subject to team medical updates.
Bottom Line
Most Bucknuts staffers expect Ohio State to advance, with the decisive factors being the offensive line’s ability to control Miami’s push and the Buckeyes’ success in converting red-zone chances into touchdowns. Ryan Day’s return to play-calling is seen as a net positive for in-game adjustments, but execution — especially in short-yardage and third-down situations — remains the ultimate arbiter.
If Ohio State can protect the passer, feature its top wide receivers in space, and avoid predictable red-zone play-calling, the Buckeyes are the likely favorite to move on. Conversely, if Miami’s defensive front imposes sustained pressure and Ohio State’s short-yardage offense stalls again, the Hurricanes have a clear path to an upset. The staff consensus — Ohio State 25, Miami 12 — captures that cautious confidence.