Lead: A new annual migration report from United Van Lines shows Americans shifted moving preferences in 2025, favoring smaller, more affordable markets and locations closer to family rather than large urban cores. Oregon became the top inbound state for the first time, while Florida and Texas saw more balanced flows after pandemic-era surges. The change is already affecting commercial real estate (CRE) decisions, with investors recalibrating toward housing affordability, lower-end retail and support logistics. Developers and funds face a more complex, less durable migration pattern than the rapid Southern growth seen during the pandemic.
Key Takeaways
- Oregon ranked as the most popular inbound state in 2025 for the first time in United Van Lines’ history, signaling a geographic shift in mover preferences.
- Six of the top 10 inbound states are in the South and South Atlantic—West Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Arkansas, Alabama and Delaware—reflecting regional demand outside major metro cores.
- Florida and Texas, once pandemic migration winners, are now showing more balanced inbound/outbound flows rather than net surges.
- New housing inventory in 2024 reached its highest level in 50 years, contributing to downward pressure on rents in some Sun Belt markets.
- U.S. Census Bureau data point to slowing population growth, household formation and migration rates, implying more muted long-term expansion in many markets.
- Investors are shifting interest toward affordable housing, modest office parks, middle- to lower-income retail and ancillary assets such as self-storage, according to industry economists.
- Younger millennials and Gen Z show a relative preference for New Jersey as a more affordable alternative to New York City, even as retirees drive outbound moves from the state.
Background
Historically, internal U.S. migration was driven by broad economic opportunity and the expansion into open land—think the old “Go West” narrative. Over recent decades that pattern evolved around jobs and metropolitan growth corridors. The pandemic accelerated moves to Southern and Sun Belt regions, as remote work and perceived affordability enticed many residents and companies to relocate.
That pandemic-driven relocation prompted developers and investors to add large amounts of new multifamily and related inventory to those destination markets. Many financial models assumed continued robust rent growth, which in hindsight underestimated supply coming online and the possibility of reversion in preferences.
At the same time, demographic headwinds—slowing population growth, reduced household formation and lower migration rates, per the U.S. Census Bureau—mean that the pace of relocations is not automatic or guaranteed to accelerate. These structural trends change the calculus for long-horizon CRE investments.
Main Event
United Van Lines’ annual migration report for moves completed in 2025 shows a notable reorientation: Oregon led inbound destinations for the first time, while several Southern states filled the remainder of the top inbound list. The report also finds the total number of residential moves in 2025 was similar to 2024, but motivations and age-group patterns are diverging.
Company communications highlighted that movers increasingly cite family ties and affordability as primary drivers rather than purely economic opportunity. Younger adults—millennials and Gen Z—are gravitating toward more affordable adjacent states such as New Jersey rather than remaining in higher-cost urban cores like New York City. Conversely, retiree patterns show net outflows from some high-cost states.
Industry voices say these shifts are already altering demand for certain CRE types. Economists and data strategists point to greater need for affordable housing stock, smaller-scale office campuses, discount-oriented retail and support logistics like self-storage in smaller workforce markets. The nature of demand has moved from speculative, high-rent expectations to more pragmatic, needs-based real estate.
Some Sun Belt markets that saw rapid pandemic-era inflows—Arizona, Nevada and parts of Florida—now face cooling demand and rent declines as newly completed supply meets or exceeds current occupant growth. That dynamic has led to increased selectivity among institutional owners and developers when deciding where to allocate capital.
Analysis & Implications
For investors, the migration report signals a shift from broad, geography-agnostic allocations to careful, localized underwriting. Where previous decades might have rewarded large bets on fast-growing metros, today’s environment favors granular market analysis that accounts for local housing affordability, workforce characteristics and supply pipelines.
Asset allocation implications include a tilt toward supply-constrained affordable multifamily and workforce housing, smaller office parks serving suburban employment nodes, and retail formats tailored to value-seeking shoppers—discount grocers and big-box anchors rather than speculative strip centers. Ancillary sectors, such as self-storage and light industrial last-mile facilities, may benefit where smaller household sizes and suburban dispersion increase demand for storage and goods flow.
Oversupply risk remains real. New inventory peaked in 2024 at levels not seen in decades, and those units are moderating rent growth in several markets. Investors who underwrite “durable” migration-driven rent escalation without accounting for pipeline risk could face underperformance, especially in high-construction markets.
Geographic lessons are nuanced: the South and South Atlantic still attract movers, but patterns are more volatile and less predictable than during the pandemic. Institutional capital will likely concentrate where supply constraints, local economic fundamentals and household trends align—rather than assuming continued universal growth across entire states or regions.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| New multifamily inventory | Highest in 50 years (peak deliveries) | Inventory absorption variable across markets |
| Top inbound state | Previously Florida/Texas strong | Oregon (first time as #1) |
| Total residential moves | Baseline for recent years | Similar to 2024 (per United Van Lines) |
The table summarizes broad data points reported by industry sources. High 2024 deliveries contributed to weaker rent trajectories in some Sun Belt metros in 2025, while new favorite destinations like Oregon suggest demand is shifting toward alternatives that blend affordability and lifestyle.
Reactions & Quotes
United Van Lines framed the findings as a change in mover priorities toward family and affordability rather than purely job-driven relocation, underscoring age-group differences in destination choices.
“The data reveals Americans are seeking a different pace of life, and destinations like Oregon, the Carolinas and the south are delivering it,”
United Van Lines (press release)
Economists told investors to rethink asset strategies and place greater emphasis on affordability-focused product types, rather than assuming durable, accelerating migration into large Sun Belt metros.
“We need to be smarter and pick our spots more carefully from a commercial real estate perspective going forward,”
Ryan Severino, Chief Economist, BGO (industry economist)
Data strategists pointed to buyer remorse in some markets where developers assumed long-term rent growth and built to meet that expectation.
“There was an enormous amount of buyers’ remorse” after large volumes of new inventory arrived in markets where mover flows softened,
Manus Clancy, Head of Data Strategy, Lightbox (CRE analytics)
Unconfirmed
- Whether the 2025 shift to states like Oregon represents a durable, long-term reversal of earlier Sun Belt trends—data are too recent to confirm sustained permanence.
- The extent to which younger movers to New Jersey will remain long-term residents versus using it as a short-term affordability stopgap is unclear.
- Precise localized rent trajectories for 2026–2027 remain uncertain, as absorption will depend on employment trends and how quickly new inventory is leased.
Bottom Line
The 2025 United Van Lines migration report signals a more complex U.S. relocation landscape where family ties, affordability and lifestyle are primary drivers. For CRE investors that means favoring practical, needs-driven assets—affordable multifamily, modest office campuses, value-oriented retail and local logistics—over broad speculative bets on rapid, uniform market growth.
Investors should prioritize market-level due diligence: analyze local supply pipelines, household formation trends and employment fundamentals before committing capital. Where demand aligns with constrained supply and solid local economics, opportunities remain; where large pipelines meet softening demand, caution is warranted.