Lead: Next week’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco will gather biotech and drug-company leaders, investors and analysts for a first look at pharma’s 2026 priorities. The meeting follows a flurry of late-2025 developments: White House drug-pricing accords with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk and a temporary easing of tariff threats. Attendees will focus on late-stage clinical readouts, M&A signals and how companies plan to blunt a roughly $300 billion patent cliff looming by the end of the decade. Market-moving topics likely include GLP-1 obesity products, readouts tied to oncology and neuroscience, and corporate plans to replace soon-to-be-lost revenue.
Key Takeaways
- Congressional and executive-level drug-pricing deals announced in 2025 have reduced near-term regulatory risk for many large drugmakers, shifting investor focus away from policy to commercial and pipeline fundamentals.
- Analysts estimate about a $300 billion patent cliff by the end of the decade, putting pressure on sellers of blockbusters such as Eliquis (Bristol Myers Squibb/Pfizer) and Keytruda (Merck).
- Bristol Myers Squibb is among the most exposed to upcoming loss-of-exclusivity and has several 2026 data readouts that will affect growth prospects after 2028, including the ADEPT Alzheimer psychosis trials for Cobenfy.
- Merck’s Keytruda faces biosimilar competition but a subcutaneous formulation approved in September is expected to preserve roughly 20–30% of U.S. Keytruda sales, giving the company a cushion into the next decade.
- Obesity and GLP-1 therapies will dominate floor conversations: Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill began reaching patients the week of Jan. 9, 2026, and Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 (orforglipron) is widely expected to seek FDA approval in the first half of 2026.
- M&A remains a live theme: Merck’s November acquisition of Cidara and press reports that it is in talks to buy Revolution Medicines signal continued deal-making to replenish pipelines.
- Policy and payer dynamics — notably potential Medicare coverage changes for obesity drugs mid-year and the growth of direct-to-consumer channels — will shape commercial forecasts for GLP-1 entrants.
Background
The JPMorgan Healthcare Conference is the sector’s principal annual forum, where company managements present strategy and investors test assumptions ahead of the year. Historically the conference sets tone and sentiment: pipeline clarity, regulatory updates and high-profile M&A often originate or crystallize here. After a turbulent 2025 marked by aggressive rhetoric about drug prices, the landscape shifted late in the year when the White House reached agreements with major manufacturers to reduce certain GLP-1 prices and signaled a pause on sector-specific tariff plans. That political de-escalation reduces one source of near-term uncertainty, but it does not eliminate structural commercial challenges facing large manufacturers.
Foremost among those is the concentration of revenue tied to a shrinking set of flagship medicines. Investment banks and sell-side analysts warned in late 2025 that generics and biosimilars threaten as much as $300 billion of annual revenues by the end of the decade. Firms with significant exposure are racing to de-risk through line extensions, new formulations, late-stage clinical programs and acquisitions. The conference will therefore be a test of whether companies can translate R&D and business-development activity into credible post‑patent road maps.
Main Event
Executives attending JPM will present a mix of expected pipeline updates and ad hoc market-moving items. Management teams from legacy Big Pharma and younger biotechs typically highlight 2026 milestones: phase 3 readouts, label expansions, commercial launches and pending regulatory decisions. For 2026, many investor questions will center on whether late-stage programs — particularly in oncology and neuroscience — can realistically offset declines from upcoming LOEs (loss of exclusivity).
On the obesity front, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are front-and-center. Novo Nordisk started shipping a Wegovy oral formulation to patients during the week of Jan. 9, 2026, creating a near-term commercial data flow the market will scrutinize. Eli Lilly is preparing to discuss orforglipron’s path to market; industry expectations place FDA approval in the first half of 2026, which would open a pivotal new channel for Lilly’s obesity franchise. Other established companies — Amgen, AstraZeneca and Pfizer, among them — are explaining how recent biotech buys and internal programs position them in the fast-expanding weight-loss market.
M&A chatter is a recurring JPM theme and 2026 is no exception. Merck’s November acquisition of Cidara added an antiviral/adjunct portfolio piece and outlets reported on discussions between Merck and Revolution Medicines — a potential deal that, if true, would be a major oncology play. Investors will use management commentary at JPM to assess whether such talks will accelerate, and whether balance-sheet capacity will favor defensible, bolt-on deals or larger transformational buys.
Analysis & Implications
The patent cliff compresses strategic choices. Firms with outsized LOE exposure can pursue at least three remedies: diversify via M&A, invest in high-value new molecular entities, or protect revenue through differentiated formulations (e.g., subcutaneous adaptations). Merck’s subcutaneous Keytruda is a clear example of the latter strategy, intended to create switching costs and protect a portion of incumbent sales even when biosimilars arrive. That sort of technical advantage can blunt, though not eliminate, margin erosion from competition.
For companies without near-term protective formulations, the calculus shifts toward faster M&A or higher-risk late-stage bets. Bristol Myers Squibb’s portfolio — flagged by analysts as highly exposed — will be judged on 2026 readouts that investors treat as either validation or proof of need for greater inorganic growth. The ADEPT program for Cobenfy in Alzheimer’s psychosis is a high-profile example where positive outcomes could materially change growth projections beyond 2028.
Commercial dynamics in GLP-1s are evolving rapidly. The arrival of oral GLP-1s expands addressable markets but raises distribution and reimbursement questions: direct-to-consumer approaches may accelerate uptake among certain demographics while payers — including Medicare if policy changes proceed mid-year — will determine long-term patient access. Pricing agreements struck with the White House in late 2025 lower headline political risk, but they do not resolve payer negotiations or channel strategy that will determine margins and market share.
Comparison & Data
| Drug | Company | LOE timing | Mitigation/Status (as of Jan 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eliquis | Bristol Myers Squibb / Pfizer | Loss of exclusivity by end of decade | High exposure; company-level data readouts in 2026 will inform growth after 2028 |
| Keytruda | Merck | By end of decade | Subcutaneous formulation approved Sept. 2025; expected to protect ~20–30% of U.S. sales |
| Cobenfy | Bristol Myers Squibb | Recently approved (2024); new trials ongoing | ADEPT Alzheimer psychosis trials planned in 2026; JPMorgan sees reasonable probability of success |
The table highlights relative strategies: formulation changes for incumbent oncology drugs, and clinical readouts as determinants of mid-term growth. Investors will weigh these elements against cost structures and potential deal synergies when valuing companies at JPM.
Reactions & Quotes
“A reasonable probability of success” for the ADEPT Alzheimer psychosis studies, according to the bank’s analysis of the program.
JPMorgan analysts (investment bank note)
“Be sure to keep up with our coverage throughout the week,” the newsletter noted, encouraging readers to follow in-person updates from San Francisco.
CNBC Healthy Returns newsletter
Unconfirmed
- The Financial Times report that Merck is in formal negotiations to acquire Revolution Medicines is based on unnamed sources and remains unconfirmed by the companies; details and terms have not been publicly disclosed.
- Precise national penetration and commercial performance of the Wegovy pill rollout remain preliminary; company statements indicate shipments began the week of Jan. 9, 2026, but full uptake patterns and payer coverage details are still emerging.
- FDA timing for orforglipron approval is projected for H1 2026 by multiple industry observers, but no final approval date had been publicly announced as of Jan. 9, 2026.
Bottom Line
JPMorgan week will be a focal point for assessing whether Big Pharma’s mitigation strategies — reformulations, clinical readouts and targeted acquisitions — are sufficient to offset a major revenue shortfall by decade’s end. With some regulatory pressure reduced after late-2025 pricing accords, investor scrutiny will concentrate on execution: clear development milestones, credible commercialization plans for GLP-1 and evidence that M&A can replenish pipelines.
For market-watchers, the conference offers a live, multi-angle read on strategic choices that will shape the industry through 2030: where companies invest R&D dollars, which assets they buy, and how payers respond to rapidly evolving obesity therapies. Follow-up reporting and company disclosures during JPM will determine whether current optimism on policy and product transitions proves durable or whether structural revenue risks reassert themselves.