In PFF’s updated 2026 mock draft, Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is projected to go No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, while Notre Dame workhorse Jeremiyah Love is slotted at No. 9 to the Kansas City Chiefs. The mock reflects the post‑season landscape as college football moves past conference and title games and NFL teams finalize roster priorities ahead of the draft. Mendoza’s 41 passing touchdowns and a 133.2 NFL passer rating this season underpin his top prospect status, and Love’s elite grades — including a nation‑leading 93.1 PFF grade this season — explain the Chiefs’ selection. The projection balances team needs, free‑agent exposure at key positions and measurable production from the 2025 college season.
Key Takeaways
- The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to use the No. 1 pick on Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, who finished with 41 passing TDs and a 133.2 NFL passer rating this season.
- The New York Jets, at No. 2, are modeled to take Oregon QB Dante Moore, who posted a 90.3 PFF passing grade and 30 big‑time throws in 2025.
- Ohio State LB Arvell Reese is mocked at No. 3 to Arizona after recording eight sacks and an 86.5 PFF run‑defense grade this year.
- Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. is projected to land at No. 4 (Tennessee) with a 93.1 PFF defensive grade and 80 pressures in 2025.
- Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love is forecasted to go No. 9 to the Kansas City Chiefs after a 91.1 PFF grade in 2023 and a nation‑leading 93.1 this season.
- Other first‑round standouts include Texas Tech’s David Bailey (15 sacks, 81 pressures) and USC’s Makai Lemon (90.8 PFF receiver grade).
- The mock emphasizes teams addressing immediate needs: offensive line upgrades for the Rams and Browns, secondary help for Miami and Seattle, and pass‑rush additions for several clubs.
Background
With the college season winding down and the NFL entering divisional playoff rounds, draft evaluators are integrating final game film, combine projections and roster turnover into positional valuations. Several NFL teams face impending free‑agent departures: the Chiefs could lose Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, while other franchises have multiple starters nearing free agency or retirement. Those personnel pressures are a major driver behind the mock’s selections, particularly at running back and offensive line.
Analytic grading from Pro Football Focus (PFF) is central to the mock’s rankings: grades and advanced metrics are used to compare prospects across systems and competition levels. Historic precedents — such as offenses prioritizing franchise quarterbacks or teams drafting for scheme fit on the defensive front — also shape the order. The mock intentionally blends production (touchdowns, sacks, pressures) with graded traits (pass‑rush grade, run‑defense grade) to mirror how many NFL front offices evaluate prospects today.
Main Event
The headline projection is Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1. Mendoza’s Heisman season includes 41 touchdown passes and an NFL‑style passer rating of 133.2, statistics that make him an obvious top‑of‑board candidate if teams buying a quarterback are prioritizing immediate production. Las Vegas, having turned over coaching and quarterback room personnel after a single season under Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, is modeled here as selecting a ready QB to pair with a new coach.
At No. 2, the mock sends Dante Moore to the New York Jets should he declare. Moore posted a 90.3 PFF passing grade and tied for the nation lead with 30 big‑time throws in the season, data points that support a top‑two selection if a clean medical and interview process follows. The Arizona Cardinals are modeled to pivot to defense at No. 3, selecting Ohio State’s Arvell Reese to strengthen a front seven that needed consistent downhill play.
Other notable first‑round placements include Rueben Bain Jr. to Tennessee at No. 4 — a player graded 93.1 by PFF with 80 pressures — and Carnell Tate to the New York Giants at No. 5 to give Jaxson Dart a true outside X target. The Chiefs’ pick at No. 9 for Jeremiyah Love reflects both Love’s elite college grades and Kansas City’s potential backfield turnover with Hunt and Pacheco entering free agency.
The rest of the first round in this projection mixes players who fill clear team gaps: interior and edge defenders for clubs with weak front sevens, offensive tackles for line‑scarce teams, and a handful of perimeter weapons for offenses needing Y‑and‑X threats. Several selections are explicitly tied to recorded PFF grades and counting statistics from the 2025 college season to make the logic transparent.
Analysis & Implications
Quarterback valuation dominates the very top of this mock because of Mendoza and Moore’s statistical resumes. Mendoza’s 133.2 passer rating and 41 TDs show a high level of efficiency and scoring production; evaluators will balance that film with measurements, schematic fit and interviews. If Mendoza goes first, the Raiders would signal a preference for a polished, pro‑style passer who can be plugged into an NFL offense rapidly rather than a longer developmental prospect.
A running back like Jeremiyah Love projecting to the top 10 is notable in today’s market and reflects shifting team priorities when a club faces imminent departures at the position. Love’s sustained PFF excellence — 91.1 as a sophomore and a nation‑leading 93.1 in 2025 — argues for a premium pick if a team believes a workhorse back still offers game‑changing value in a specific offensive scheme.
The mock also underscores how pass‑rush and interior defensive line prospects remain premium assets. Players such as David Bailey (15 sacks, 81 pressures) and Kayden McDonald (91.2 run‑defense grade) are projected to be early selections because their production maps directly to addressing weaknesses that many NFL teams still prioritize: pressure generation and interior run stuffing. For playoff‑contending teams, adding a high‑grade defender can be a one‑pick‑turn catalyst.
Finally, offensive line and secondary picks in the late first round reflect the league’s emphasis on protecting franchise quarterbacks and bolstering coverage against increasingly dynamic passing attacks. Prospects with balanced pass‑ and run‑blocking grades at tackle or interior line positions tend to climb boards in this mock, consistent with recent draft trends that reward versatility.
Comparison & Data
| Prospect | Primary Stat Highlights | PFF Grade (noted season) |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) | 41 passing TDs; 133.2 NFL passer rating | — (Heisman season highlighted) |
| Dante Moore (Oregon) | 30 big‑time throws | 90.3 passing grade (2025) |
| Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) | Nation‑leading 93.1 PFF grade (2025) | 93.1 (2025); 91.1 (2023) |
The table isolates a few headline comparisons to clarify why these prospects project where they do: Mendoza’s touchdown production and passer rating illustrate finishing ability; Moore’s big‑time throws quantify playmaking; Love’s high PFF grades show consistent elite evaluation across seasons. Teams weighing these players will also add medical checks, interviews and scheme fit to the listed metrics.
Reactions & Quotes
“Mendoza’s season tape and counting stats place him at the top of many boards — he’s a ready‑to‑play passer with big‑time production.”
PFF draft analysis
“Selecting a bell‑cow running back high in the first round signals a belief that the position can still be a foundational piece in an offense.”
Draft strategist commentary (analysis)
“If Kansas City loses one of its veteran backs, taking Love would address both immediate need and long‑term upside in the run game.”
Roster/needs assessment (team analyst)
Unconfirmed
- The Raiders’ final head‑coach hire and detailed offensive scheme that would determine Mendoza’s fit remain undetermined and could change draft priorities.
- The Jets’ reported leaning between Mendoza and Moore is speculative until either quarterback officially declares and completes pre‑draft medicals and interviews.
- Chiefs’ internal plans for Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco (whether to re‑sign or decline) are in flux and may alter the likelihood of drafting a running back at No. 9.
Bottom Line
PFF’s projection places premium value on ready‑to‑play quarterbacks and high‑grade producers who can immediately fill roster holes. Mendoza’s statistical season and Heisman recognition make him a logical No. 1 in scenarios where teams prioritize pro‑style passing production. Jeremiyah Love’s back‑to‑back elite grades create a plausible path to the top 10, especially for a Chiefs roster facing potential turnover in its backfield.
As with any mock conducted before combine and pro‑day results, the order is a transparent blend of measurable production and team needs that will shift as clubs complete pre‑draft evaluations. Prospects’ medicals, interviews and scheme fit will ultimately determine whether these projections hold on draft night.
Sources
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) — analytics media (original mock draft)
- Heisman Trophy — official organization (award confirmation)
- NCAA — official college athletics statistics and game logs