Lead
Hideki Matsuyama enters the final round of the 2026 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale with a one-shot advantage after a 68 on Saturday, following a 64 on Friday that propelled him into contention. The two-time event champion paced himself on Moving Day, especially on the back nine, and arrives at Sunday in the lone lead at 13-under. With firm turf expected and late winds possible, nine players sit within two strokes of Matsuyama, setting up a wide-open Sunday for a potential third Scottsdale victory. The combination of his strong tee-to-green ball-striking and unusually hot putting has been the decisive factor so far.
Key Takeaways
- Hideki Matsuyama leads solo at 13-under after a 68 in Round 3 and a 64 on Friday, seeking a third WM Phoenix Open title.
- Nine players are within two shots of the lead entering the final round, creating a crowded chase pack with score volatility possible.
- World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler sits at 8-under after a 67 in Round 3, five strokes back but potentially dangerous if he starts fast on Sunday.
- Several players posted very low third-round scores: Viktor Hovland, Maverick McNealy, Michael Thorbjornsen and Nicolai Højgaard each shot 65 on Saturday.
- Putting has been Matsuyama’s edge this week; he ranks inside the top 10 in strokes gained: putting, converting from inside 10 feet with consistency.
- Odds via DraftKings list Matsuyama at 23/10, with Si Woo Kim (5-1) and Maverick McNealy (6-1) close behind among favorites.
- Course conditions are firm and wind is forecast to increase late Sunday, which could advantage earlier tee times on Moving Day-style scoring swings.
Background
The WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is one of the PGA Tour’s most-attended and distinctive stops, known for its stadium atmosphere around the par-3 16th and typically fast desert surfaces. Matsuyama is a familiar figure here, having won twice previously, and his comfort with the course’s contours and greens has been a recurring theme in his positive results at Scottsdale.
Historically, the event produces low scores and leaderboard movement on the final day; players who can mix aggressive birdie-making with careful bogey avoidance often prevail. Wind and firm conditions late in the day have in past years separated early starters from late groups, adding strategic weight to tee times and course management.
Main Event
Matsuyama made his decisive move early on Saturday, birdieing the first hole to climb into a share of the top spot and ultimately holding the lead alone after a 68. His front nine showed volatility—three birdies and two bogeys in the opening five holes—but he steadied himself and played the remainder conservatively to protect the lead.
His putter has been unusually reliable: he’s been strong inside 10 feet and drained several longer birdie attempts by matching both line and speed on Scottsdale’s receptive greens. That performance in strokes gained: putting has offset what has historically been his weakest phase of the game.
The leaderboard tightened behind Matsuyama because he didn’t go as low as some expected in the final group on Saturday; that left room for a cluster of challengers. Nine players are within two strokes, including Ryo Hisatsune, Si Woo Kim, Nicolai Højgaard and Maverick McNealy, all poised to pounce with a low Sunday in range.
Scottie Scheffler, a two-time winner at this event, had a slow start to Saturday but recovered with a late run to post a 67, moving to 8-under. Although five shots back, Scheffler’s standing as World No. 1 and prior Scottsdale success make him one to watch if he can jump-start his round early on Sunday.
Analysis & Implications
Matsuyama’s current position combines form and course fit: his ball-striking has him in position to attack pins, and his hot putting has turned opportunities into birdies rather than half-chances. That mix is important because, while many contenders can hole birdies in bursts, few have matched his low-bogey profile this week.
The crowded leaderboard increases volatility. With several mid-to-low 60s already posted and firm turf expected, a 65 on Sunday could vault multiple players into contention. That compresses both risk and reward: aggressive approach shots will be rewarded, but a single mistake on the back nine could cost multiple places.
From a betting and strategic point of view, Matsuyama’s pricing at 23/10 suggests market confidence but also implies value exists elsewhere given the bunched chase group. Players like Si Woo Kim and McNealy, who can accumulate birdies, represent alternate lines for bettors seeking upside if Matsuyama’s putting cools or he slows on birdie opportunities.
Internationally, a third Scottsdale win would bolster Matsuyama’s standing in early-season FedExCup momentum and global ranking storylines; domestically, it would add another marquee victory to a course that has produced repeat winners and memorable leaderboard swings.
Comparison & Data
| Position | Player | Score | Round 3 | DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | -13 | 68 | 23/10 |
| T2 | Nicolai Højgaard | -12 | 65 | 15/2 |
| T2 | Maverick McNealy | -12 | 65 | 6/1 |
| T2 | Si Woo Kim | -12 | 66 | 5/1 |
| T2 | Ryo Hisatsune | -12 | 71 | 11/1 |
| T6 | Matt Fitzpatrick | -11 | 67 | 14/1 |
| T16 | Scottie Scheffler | -8 | 67 | 22/1 |
The table highlights how many players carded sub-66 rounds on Saturday, compressing the leaderboard. Matsuyama’s single-shot margin is small relative to the number of players capable of shooting in the mid-60s on a receptive course; past Scottsdale Sundays have produced similar late surges when early starters take advantage of milder afternoon winds.
Reactions & Quotes
Observers have noted Matsuyama’s rare combination this week of reliable iron play and hot putting as the main reason he sits atop the leaderboard.
“Matsuyama has never lost a tournament where he’s held the solo lead going into the final round, converting all five chances into victories.”
Justin Ray / CBS Sports (media)
That stat, cited by CBS Sports, underscores both Matsuyama’s historical composure and the psychological edge of holding sole possession of the 54-hole lead. Analysts point out that while past conversion rates are informative, each tournament presents new variables.
“DraftKings lists Matsuyama at 23/10, with Kim and McNealy among the closest marketed threats—odds that reflect both course fit and recent form.”
DraftKings Sportsbook (odds provider)
Odds-driven commentary frames the betting market’s view: Matsuyama is a favorite but not overwhelmingly priced, which reflects the number of contenders capable of low rounds on Sunday.
Unconfirmed
- Whether wind will pick up late Sunday as forecast; microclimate behavior has varied and exact timing of stronger gusts is not guaranteed.
- Any internal comment from players about final-round strategy—players’ planned tactics for Sunday have not been publicly detailed beyond general remarks to media.
- Whether Matsuyama’s final-round performance will mirror his prior conversions from a solo 54-hole lead; past results do not deterministically predict Sunday outcomes.
Bottom Line
Hideki Matsuyama holds a narrow but meaningful advantage entering the final round at TPC Scottsdale thanks to a hot putter and steady ball-striking; his historical record when leading after 54 holes adds an extra layer of confidence. However, a crowded chase group and the possibility of low rounds on a receptive course mean Sunday remains wide open.
Key factors to watch are early tee times that may benefit from milder wind, Matsuyama’s ability to generate birdie chances without risking bogeys, and whether challengers such as Si Woo Kim, McNealy or Hovland can reproduce their low Saturday scores. For viewers and bettors alike, the final round looks set to test nerves as much as shot-making.