Lead
U.S. equity futures ticked modestly higher on Thursday, Feb. 11, 2026, as investors absorbed a stronger-than-expected January jobs report and a fresh round of corporate earnings. Dow futures gained about 88 points (0.2%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each rose roughly 0.2%. The moves follow a mixed trading session on Wall Street that left major indexes mostly flat after an early rally. Traders flagged Friday’s consumer price index as the next key datapoint for interest-rate expectations.
Key Takeaways
- Dow futures climbed 88 points, or roughly 0.2%; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.2% each on Thursday, Feb. 11, 2026.
- January nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, data that complicates the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 7 were 227,000, down 5,000 from the prior week but slightly above the 225,000 Dow Jones consensus.
- Cisco Systems plunged about 7% in premarket trading after guiding below market expectations for the current quarter despite beating top- and bottom-line estimates for the quarter just reported.
- McDonald’s shares turned positive after an earnings beat, rising nearly 1% in premarket trading.
- Continuing claims rose to 1.86 million, a one-week-lag indicator that nevertheless sits within the broader moderation trend.
- Markets are focused on Friday’s CPI print; a tame inflation reading could preserve hopes for eventual rate relief, while hotter inflation would reduce the likelihood of near-term cuts.
Background
The January jobs report, released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed payroll gains of 130,000 and an unemployment rate that edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%. Those figures came in above consensus expectations and contrasted with other signs of softer growth in recent months. Investors had been watching for clear evidence of a labor-market slowdown that might reassure the Federal Reserve and speed the timeline for rate reductions.
At the same time, corporate earnings season continues to influence intra-day moves: individual beat-or-miss results and guidance revisions are producing outsized reactions in stocks such as Cisco Systems and McDonald’s. Economic calendar items — including initial jobless claims and January existing-home sales — also feed into the near-term narrative about growth, inflation and Fed policy.
Main Event
Equity futures opened modestly higher following the mixed trading session on Wednesday. The prior session saw the Dow close down about 66 points (0.1%), the Nasdaq Composite dip roughly 0.2% and the S&P 500 finish a hair lower. Markets rallied earlier on the strong payrolls reading but later gave back gains as participants weighed the implications for monetary policy.
Cisco Systems fell about 7% in premarket trade after its guidance for the current quarter disappointed investors; the company had reported non-GAAP gross margin of 67.5%, slightly under the 68.1% LSEG estimate, even as revenue and EPS topped expectations. Meanwhile, McDonald’s posted adjusted fourth-quarter EPS of $3.12 on $7.01 billion in revenue, beating LSEG estimates and nudging the stock higher by nearly 1% in early trading.
AppLovin also moved after hours, sliding more than 4% despite beating top- and bottom-line estimates — a reminder that beat-and-guidance dynamics can push shares lower if outlooks or forward metrics disappoint. Separately, JPMorgan downgraded Kraft Heinz to underweight, citing persistent challenges and cutting its price target to $22 from $24.
On the macro front, the Labor Department’s weekly report showed initial jobless claims at 227,000 for the week ended Feb. 7, a 5,000 decline from the revised prior week and slightly above the Dow Jones consensus. Continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1.86 million, a lagging but closely watched measure of labor-market fluidity.
Analysis & Implications
The stronger-than-expected payrolls print complicates the path for Federal Reserve rate cuts. If job growth remains resilient while inflation stays elevated, the Fed may delay easing — a dynamic that can sap risk appetite in equities. Conversely, a calm CPI on Friday would allow markets to reconcile robust employment with cooling price pressures, which could restore hopes for policy accommodation.
Corporate earnings and guidance are adding another layer of differentiation across sectors. Technology and software names remain sensitive to margin commentary and subscription trends, while consumer-facing companies are closely watched for demand signals amid mixed retail data. Large-cap beats that include conservative guidance may no longer guarantee sustained rallies in a market attuned to macro risk.
For fixed-income and rates markets, the mix of payroll strength and pending CPI means volatility could persist in the near term. Traders’ pricing of rate-cut odds will likely move sharply around the inflation release, and that repricing could feed back into equity multiples, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive growth stocks.
Comparison & Data
| Series | Prior Session | Futures (Feb. 11) |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -66 pts (-0.1%) | +88 pts (+0.2%) |
| S&P 500 | ~0 pts (tick lower) | +0.2% |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.2% | Nasdaq 100 futures +0.2% |
The table contrasts the prior session’s intraday weakness with modest futures gains the following morning. The numbers illustrate how mixed data — strong payrolls but ongoing earnings dispersion — can produce back-and-forth market action rather than a clear directional trend.
Reactions & Quotes
“It’s going to put a lot of weight on Friday’s CPI report, because if that comes in tame, at least the market can understand that the inflation part of the Fed’s equation is cooling.”
Tom Lee, Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
Lee’s comment reflects a common market view: payroll strength reduces recession fears but also raises the bar for disinflation needed to justify rate cuts. Traders are therefore focused on CPI as a tie-breaker.
“JPMorgan cited persistent challenges at Kraft Heinz that justify a downgrade and a lower price target, reflecting ongoing operational headwinds.”
Thomas Palmer, JPMorgan analyst (paraphrase)
JPMorgan’s action on Kraft Heinz highlights that analyst revisions and structural company issues remain influential during earnings season, independent of macro headlines.
Unconfirmed
- Whether Friday’s CPI will be sufficiently tame to restore expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts remains unknown until the official release.
- Any near-term durability of Cisco’s margin trajectory is unconfirmed until the company’s upcoming quarterly commentary and customer demand indicators are further disclosed.
- The extent to which recent job growth signals a sustained upside for wages and services inflation is not yet established and requires additional monthly datapoints.
Bottom Line
The market’s modest futures gains on Feb. 11, 2026 reflect a balancing act: payrolls showed resilience, reducing near-term recession risk, while corporate earnings and forward guidance continue to sort winners and losers. Policymakers and investors alike are now waiting on Friday’s CPI to clarify how the Fed may reconcile stubborn labor strength with the inflation mandate.
Expect continued headline-driven volatility: firm payrolls plus hot inflation would likely push back rate-cut expectations and pressure risk assets, while a soft CPI could revive hopes for easing and support broader equity gains. Traders should monitor earnings guidance, weekly jobless data and the CPI print as the primary near-term market catalysts.