McDonald’s Growth Beats Estimates as Value Strategy Gains Ground

Lead

On Feb 11, 2026, McDonald’s reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results, with the company saying US established-restaurant sales rose 6.8% year on year. The results, updated on Feb 12, 2026, outpaced analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg and showed comparable sales gains in two international divisions. Executives and company statements attributed the improvement largely to value-oriented menu promotions that appealed to cost-conscious diners. The quarter marks the fastest US sales growth for McDonald’s since 2023, reversing traffic weakness from a year earlier when an E. coli outbreak depressed visits.

Key takeaways

• Established US restaurant sales increased 6.8% in Q4 2025 versus the prior year, the fastest pace since 2023.
• Earnings, excluding one-time items, exceeded the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg, according to company disclosures.
• Comparable sales in two international divisions also beat consensus, signaling broader geographic momentum.
• Value-focused promotions and bundled meals were cited as primary demand drivers amid ongoing consumer price sensitivity.
• The prior-year comparison reflected subdued foot traffic after an E. coli outbreak that affected visits in the United States.
• Company results suggest resilient volume even as the industry balances promotional mix and margin pressures.

Background

McDonald’s has leaned on value and limited-time offers for years as part of an effort to retain price-sensitive customers and sustain traffic. The quick-service sector has been navigating a mix of stubborn food and labor costs while consumers trade down from full-service dining to lower-priced fast food options. In the year-earlier period, McDonald’s US foot traffic was dented by an E. coli outbreak that reduced visits and created an easier comparison base for the latest quarter. Analysts have watched whether promotional intensity would erode margins or translate into durable customer habits.

Franchising makes McDonald’s results sensitive to decisions by local operators on pricing, promotions and labor scheduling, so company-wide sales gains do not automatically map to uniform margin improvement. International divisions have followed different strategies, with some markets prioritizing premium products while others emphasize value bundles. Against this backdrop, investors and industry watchers focus on comparable sales and adjusted earnings as clearer indicators of the underlying business than headline revenue alone. The latest quarter provides an early read on whether value plays can sustain traffic without severe margin trade-offs.

Main event

In the fourth quarter reported on Feb 11, 2026, McDonald’s said established US restaurant sales climbed 6.8% from a year earlier, topping forecasts aggregated by Bloomberg. The company also reported that adjusted earnings beat the same estimate set, reflecting a combination of stronger volume and cost management, according to its filings. Management credited the gains mainly to a renewed emphasis on value-focused meals and promotions that resonated with customers facing ongoing budget pressures.

Comparable sales grew in two of McDonald’s international divisions, signaling that the value strategy had resonance beyond the US market. The company noted that while mix and pricing varied by region, promotional mechanics such as bundles and limited-time discounts drove higher transactions. Foot traffic measured against the prior-year quarter benefited from a low base when an E. coli incident had slowed visits, but company officials pointed to underlying demand strength as the primary factor.

Bloomberg’s compilation of analyst estimates showed the quarter outperformed expectations for both revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share, though the company did not disclose a detailed, company-wide margin improvement figure in its public summary. Analysts interpreting the results highlighted that volume recovery and effective promotional execution were key contributors. The market reaction reflected cautious optimism, with investors weighing near-term sales momentum against the durability of the promotional approach.

Analysis & implications

McDonald’s success with value promotions in Q4 suggests the brand retains the price elasticity and operational scale to respond quickly when consumer sentiment shifts. For many cost-conscious diners, bundled offers simplify choice and reduce perceived cost per meal, which can lift transactions without requiring broad permanent price cuts. If maintained carefully, such promotions can increase throughput and supply-chain efficiency, partially offsetting margin pressure from lower price points.

However, sustained reliance on promotions carries risks for long-term profitability and brand positioning. Frequent discounting can condition customers to wait for deals and compress average check sizes, making it harder to reintroduce higher-priced items or premium upgrades. Franchisees, who bear many labor and real-estate costs, may see differing margin outcomes depending on local execution and input-cost inflation, which could create tension between corporate strategy and operator economics.

International results beating estimates indicate the approach is adaptable across markets, but execution will vary by consumer income, competition and regulatory environments. In markets where foodservice inflation is falling, McDonald’s may have more room to rebalance mix toward higher-margin items. Conversely, in regions with stubborn cost inflation, value plays may be necessary to protect traffic, even if they compress margins in the near term.

Comparison & data

The table summarizes the publicly reported top-line sales moves and the relation to analyst expectations. Detailed margin, EPS and cash-flow metrics were reported in company filings and analyst notes; those figures are necessary to assess profitability impact and franchisee economics and were not fully enumerated in the high-level summary.

Reactions & quotes

Company and market reactions were broadly positive but measured, with observers highlighting volume strength and the trade-offs of promotion-led growth.

McDonald’s described the quarter as driven by targeted value offerings that reconnected with cost-conscious guests in key US markets.

McDonald’s (company statement)

Industry analysts noted the results validate a flexible promotional playbook but cautioned that margin effects will determine whether the strategy is sustainable.

Industry analysts (market commentary)

Some consumers signaled on social platforms that promotional bundles made dining at McDonald’s a more attractive budget option during the quarter.

Public social commentary (aggregated)

Unconfirmed

• Whether the value-led recovery will persist into 2026 without eroding overall margins is not yet confirmed by detailed company margin disclosures.
• The extent to which franchisee profitability improved in the quarter was not fully detailed in the public summary and remains to be confirmed in full filings.
• Longer-term shifts in customer mix toward value items versus premium offerings are still speculative and require more quarters of consistent data.

Bottom line

McDonald’s outperformance in Q4 2025, led by a 6.8% rise in established US restaurant sales, shows that value-oriented offers can drive traffic and beat near-term expectations. The company appears to have leveraged promotional mechanics effectively against a prior-year period weakened by an E. coli outbreak, while also posting stronger-than-expected adjusted earnings.

Looking ahead, the critical questions are whether the approach can sustain volume without persistent margin erosion, and how franchisees across regions will fare as input costs and local competitive dynamics evolve. Investors and operators will be watching full filings and subsequent quarters for clarity on margins, franchise economics and the durability of demand gains.

Sources

• Bloomberg – media