Europe Warily Awaits Rubio at Munich Conference as Trump Strains Transatlantic Ties

Lead

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading a large U.S. delegation to the Munich Security Conference this week as European leaders arrive with visible caution, seeking a respite from months of disruptive comments and policy moves from President Donald Trump that have unsettled transatlantic relations. A year after Vice President JD Vance stunned participants at the same forum with a blistering critique of key allies, Rubio is set to offer a less confrontational but philosophically aligned message while meeting leaders in Munich and then traveling to Slovakia and Hungary. U.S. officials previewing the visit say Rubio will emphasize cooperation on Ukraine, the Middle East and China, but Europeans remain skeptical that immediate trust can be rebuilt. The trip is being watched as a test of whether Washington can steady ties or whether the post World War II security architecture will face deeper strain.

Key Takeaways

• Marco Rubio is leading a major U.S. delegation to the Munich Security Conference this week and will travel on to Slovakia and Hungary after the two day stop.
• A year after Vice President JD Vance shocked the conference with sharp attacks on allies, Rubio plans a rhetorically milder but intellectually similar line, officials say.
• Rubio signaled a different tone in public remarks, saying the U.S. and Europe are tightly linked; he also said the world faces a new era in geopolitics that requires reassessment.
• European unease has been fueled by multiple Trump moves, including comments about Greenland and repeated public insults, prompting France and Canada to open consulates in Nuuk last week.
• Rubio will likely face questions about Greenland and U.S. intentions; he told reporters he was working on the issue and that officials felt good about progress.
• Concerns about Ukraine and Russia remain central, and European leaders are divided between accommodation, calls for deeper European strategic autonomy, and outright disappointment with U.S. unpredictability.
• The so called Board of Peace is a 27 member group planned to coordinate Gaza fundraising and potentially other diplomacy; its first meeting is scheduled in Washington on Feb. 19 and several European states have not endorsed it.

Background

Transatlantic relations have long rested on a mix of NATO security guarantees, shared democratic norms and deep economic ties that emerged from the post World War II order. Over recent months, statements and actions from the U.S. executive branch have introduced a steady stream of unpredictability for European capitals, raising questions about Washington s reliability as a security partner. At the Munich Security Conference last year Vice President JD Vance delivered a forceful speech that many European officials interpreted as a break with conventional U.S. support for allies, sharpening doubts about mutual commitments and burden sharing.

European responses have varied. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has signaled a pragmatic approach, urging Europe to increase responsibility for its security and to develop technological independence while insisting democracies remain partners and not subordinates. By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron and figures such as former Bank of England governor Mark Carney appear to have largely lost faith in the current U.S. approach, moving to deepen ties elsewhere and, in some instances, escalating symbolic support for allies like Denmark and Greenland. These divergent responses reflect broader debates within Europe about whether to lean into a more autonomous security and economic posture or to try to repair transatlantic trust.

Main Event

The State Department provided few public details about Rubio s itinerary beyond the Munich stop and subsequent visits to Slovakia and Hungary. U.S. officials speaking on condition of anonymity said Rubio will concentrate on areas of common concern: the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and strategic competition with China. His mission is being framed as pragmatic outreach intended to reassure partners while maintaining the administration s emphasis on transactional politics and reassessment of longstanding commitments.

Rubio told reporters before departure that Americans and Europeans are closely linked culturally and historically and that Washington wants to talk about that shared heritage. He also cautioned that the global landscape has shifted, saying the new geopolitical era requires reexamination of assumptions. Delegation members and attending U.S. lawmakers are expected to press for cooperative steps while avoiding the more combative rhetoric that characterized last year s U.S. interventions at Munich.

European leaders arriving at the conference expressed a mix of guarded hope and skepticism. Some see Rubio s presence and the broader congressional attendance as an opportunity for damage control, while others emphasize the need for Europe to shore up its own defenses and economic resilience. Questions about specific episodes, notably President Trump s public remarks about Greenland, are likely to come up in bilateral meetings; Rubio said he expected questions and indicated officials were addressing the matter.

Analysis & Implications

Short term, Rubio s visit can offer diplomatic tone management but is unlikely to erase accumulated doubts. Confidence between capitals has a behavioral component: repeated assurances can help, but concrete policy signals such as sustained military cooperation, coordinated sanctions policy and clear trade stances will matter more to European publics and elites. If Rubio secures specific, actionable commitments on Ukraine assistance or coordinated responses to Chinese economic pressures, Europeans may feel some immediate relief; absent such outcomes skepticism will persist.

Longer term, the episode accelerates discussions in Europe about strategic autonomy and burden sharing. Leaders like Chancellor Merz who call for greater European responsibility are likely to push for increase in defense investment, supply chain diversification, and technological independence. These moves would not necessarily sever the alliance, but they could reshape NATO s missions and the balance of transatlantic cooperation toward a more multipolar set of arrangements with less U.S. primacy.

Economically, U.S. unpredictability can create openings for other powers, especially China, to deepen influence in Europe through trade and investment. Several European officials already cite the dual pressure of a rising China and minute by minute instability on the American side as a pivotal challenge. If commercial and technological ties with China expand while political trust with the U.S. erodes, Europe could face difficult tradeoffs between security alignment and economic opportunity.

Comparison & Data

The table highlights recent flashpoints and the range of European reactions. Those patterns illustrate why many officials see words alone as insufficient: governments are tracking policy moves, diplomatic staffing changes and concrete security commitments in order to judge whether alliance repair is credible. Data on defense spending and trade links will determine how far Europe can and will tilt toward greater autonomy if transatlantic cooperation remains inconsistent.

Reactions & Quotes

German analysts and conference officials described the current relationship as damaged but not irretrievable, and they underscored the value of clear, consistent U.S. engagement.

Transatlantic relations are currently in a significant crisis of confidence and credibility, but there is still room for constructive engagement.

Wolfgang Ischinger, Munich Security Conference chairman

A senior analyst at a transatlantic think tank called last year s speech a shock moment and warned that trust will be harder to rebuild the longer estrangement continues.

It was perceived as the first clear statement of what the new U.S. approach might be, creating widespread doubt about whether the shared vision still holds.

Claudia Major, German Marshall Fund senior vice president

Rubio s public remarks sought to soften tones while acknowledging a tougher international environment.

We are very tightly linked together with Europe, and in this new era we all must reexamine what our partnerships look like.

Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State

Unconfirmed

• Whether Rubio will secure any firm, new security guarantees or binding agreements with European partners during the Munich stop remains unconfirmed.
• It is not yet confirmed which additional European governments, if any, will formally join the Board of Peace following the Washington meeting on Feb. 19.
• Any private understandings between U.S. officials and specific European leaders about Greenland have not been publicly disclosed and remain unverified.

Bottom Line

Rubio s visit to Munich is a carefully watched diplomatic test rather than a guaranteed turning point. His presence and conversational approach may ease immediate tensions among some leaders and open lines of communication, but the deeper problem is behavioral: repeated unpredictability from the U.S. executive branch has sown doubts that will not be erased by tone alone. Europeans are increasingly preparing contingency steps, from bolstering defense capabilities to diversifying economic partners, while still looking for sustained, verifiable U.S. commitments on Ukraine and other shared security challenges.

Watch lists for the coming weeks include any concrete follow through on Ukraine assistance, which countries formally engage with the Board of Peace, and whether the U.S. administration signals consistent policy on strategic issues like Greenland and technology competition with China. Those outcomes will determine if the trip is remembered as a modest diplomatic repair job or as another episode in a longer unraveling of post war transatlantic arrangements.

Sources

• Associated Press — news outlet reporting original coverage
• Munich Security Conference — official event organizer
• German Marshall Fund — think tank commentary and analysis