Lead: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Budapest on Monday to meet Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as officials prepared to sign a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement. The signing follows Rubio’s stop in Slovakia and a recent White House meeting between Orbán and President Donald Trump in November. Hungary has signaled willingness to support construction of up to 10 small modular reactors (SMRs), a program with an estimated value of up to $20 billion. The visit comes ahead of Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election, where Orbán faces his most serious electoral challenge since 2010.
Key Takeaways
- Marco Rubio met with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest on Monday to finalize a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Hungary.
- Hungary indicated potential support for up to 10 small modular reactors (SMRs), with an estimated program value as high as $20 billion.
- Details of the pact were not publicly released before the signing; the November White House discussions included commitments on SMRs and nuclear fuel supply.
- Rubio’s visit followed stops at the Munich Security Conference and Slovakia, part of a regional push to secure energy partnerships in Central Europe.
- The meetings occur amid Hungarian domestic politics: Orbán seeks re-election on April 12 and has cultivated ties with President Trump and conservative U.S. constituencies.
- Orbán maintains energy ties with Russia while also pursuing Western suppliers, creating a diplomatic balancing act for Budapest and Washington.
Background
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán returned to power in 2010 and has since positioned Hungary as a model of conservative, nationalist governance for many on the U.S. right. His government has pursued strict immigration controls, curtailed certain civil liberties for LGBTQ+ people, and centralized political power—moves that have drawn criticism from EU institutions. At the same time, Orbán has maintained pragmatic ties with Russia, notably in energy, while also courting warmer relations with former President Donald Trump and elements of the U.S. conservative movement.
Energy security and diversification have been central to Central European policy since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine highlighted Europe’s dependence on Russian fuels. Hungary operates the Paks nuclear plant, built with Russian technology, and has sought alternatives for fuel and equipment. In November, Orbán met with President Trump at the White House and agreed in principle to U.S.-Hungary cooperation in civilian nuclear energy, including SMRs and fuel supply from U.S.-based firms.
Main Event
Rubio’s meetings in Budapest on Monday were billed as focused on finalizing a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement that Washington and Budapest had discussed since the November White House meeting. Hungarian officials signaled support for construction of up to 10 SMRs, a scale that U.S. sources estimated could reach a combined value of about $20 billion if fully realized. The exact technical and commercial terms of the agreement—such as timelines, financing arrangements, and vendor responsibilities—were not disclosed publicly prior to the signing.
Rubio’s Central Europe tour included a stop in Slovakia on Sunday and followed his participation at the Munich Security Conference. U.S. diplomats framed the visits as strengthening energy ties and diversifying supply chains for the region. For Budapest, the deal offers an alternative to deeper reliance on Russian energy technology and fuel, while for Washington it represents an export and strategic foothold in Central Europe’s civil nuclear sector.
Domestic politics in Hungary are inseparable from the visit: Orbán’s Fidesz party is campaigning ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, where polls show tighter margins than in prior cycles. Hungarian leaders have sought to amplify high-profile international support—highlighted by Trump’s endorsements and past appearances by conservative U.S. figures—to bolster Orbán’s standing with voters aligned with conservative and nationalist priorities.
Analysis & Implications
The agreement, if it includes procurement of U.S.-supplied SMRs and fuel, could reshape parts of Hungary’s energy strategy by introducing Western technology and a new supply chain alongside existing Russian systems at Paks. SMRs are pitched as more flexible and potentially faster-to-deploy than traditional large reactors, but they also require new regulatory frameworks, skilled workforces, and secure fuel arrangements. Implementation will test Hungary’s regulatory capacity and its ability to manage parallel relationships with both U.S. and Russian suppliers.
For Washington, the deal serves multiple objectives: expanding U.S. nuclear exports, strengthening strategic ties in Central Europe, and offering partners an alternative to Russian energy dependence. Economically, a program of up to $20 billion would be a substantial industrial win for U.S. companies involved in SMR design, construction, and fuel supply. Diplomatically, however, deepening U.S.-Hungary nuclear cooperation risks complicating Brussels–Budapest relations, since the EU remains concerned about democratic backsliding in Hungary.
Politically, the timing of the signing—weeks before an important Hungarian election—cements a public association between Orbán and high-profile U.S. conservatives, including figures aligned with Trump. That association may mobilize Orbán’s base but could also reinforce criticisms from opponents who view the partnership as transactional and aimed at electoral advantage. Internationally, other EU members will watch whether the pact alters Hungary’s stance toward EU energy policy and sanctions regimes relating to Russia.
Comparison & Data
| Item | Hungary (Pledged) | Typical SMR Program |
|---|---|---|
| Number of units | Up to 10 SMRs | 1–6 units (varies by program) |
| Estimated program value | Up to $20 billion | $0.5–$20+ billion (depending on scale) |
| Existing nuclear site | Paks I (Russian-built) | New or retrofit sites |
The table summarizes the public parameters Hungary indicated before the signing and places them against a broad range of SMR program scales. SMR deployments worldwide remain diverse; unit counts and total investment depend on reactor design, local infrastructure, grid needs, and financing. Given those variables, a pledge of up to 10 units and roughly $20 billion places Hungary toward the larger end of likely SMR initiatives.
Reactions & Quotes
U.S. and Hungarian officials framed the agreement as strengthening energy cooperation and supply diversification. Hungarian government spokespeople presented the pact as advancing national energy security and industrial investment.
“We welcome new cooperation that enhances Hungary’s energy independence and technological capacity,”
Hungarian government statement
In the U.S., supporters highlighted the commercial and strategic benefits, while critics cautioned about timing and political optics given Hungary’s internal politics and ties to Russia.
“This agreement could open important opportunities for American energy firms and support our allies in Central Europe,”
U.S. statement from Rubio’s office
Former President Trump publicly endorsed Orbán ahead of the elections on social media, a point Budapest has used to signal transatlantic political backing.
“A truly strong and powerful Leader — a true friend, fighter, and WINNER,”
Post by Donald Trump (public social media)
Unconfirmed
- Specific technical and commercial terms of the signed agreement (procurement schedule, financing, and vendor contracts) were not publicly disclosed prior to the signing.
- Precise timelines for construction, commissioning, or the number of SMRs definitively approved beyond the public reference to “up to 10” remain unverified.
- Whether all components and fuel will be sourced from U.S. firms or involve international partnerships was not confirmed in public statements before the signing.
Bottom Line
The Rubio–Orbán meeting in Budapest and the civilian nuclear pact signal a significant step in U.S.–Hungary energy cooperation with potential economic and strategic implications. A program that includes up to 10 SMRs and a $20 billion scale would be substantial by European standards and could meaningfully diversify Hungary’s nuclear suppliers away from exclusive Russian dependence.
However, the lack of public detail on financing, timelines, and contracting means practical implementation remains uncertain. Observers should watch for follow-on disclosures on vendor selection, regulatory approval, and the interaction between this pact and EU energy and sanctions policies—especially given Hungary’s upcoming April 12 election and its dual relationships with Moscow and Washington.
Sources
- AP News (U.S. news agency) — original reporting on Rubio’s visit and the planned civilian nuclear cooperation.