First wave of nearly a week of rain hits Southern California; snow expected for Mammoth, Tahoe

Lead

On Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, the first of several storms arrived across Southern California, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and the potential for mountain snow from the Sierra to local foothills. The National Weather Service forecast 1 to 2.5 inches of rain for coastal and valley areas through Monday, with more than double that in mountains and foothills. Local officials issued flood watches, wind advisories and evacuation warnings for burn-scar zones, and some mountain areas faced several feet of snow and whiteout conditions. The system forced closures and travel precautions but forecasters say drier, sunnier weather should return by the end of the week.

Key Takeaways

• The National Weather Service estimated 1 to 2.5 inches of rain in coastal and valley areas through Monday, with mountains and foothills receiving more than twice that amount.
• By the end of the week totals could reach 2 to 4 inches in coastal and valley locations and 4 to 8 inches in mountain and foothill communities.
• Snowfall of several feet was predicted for the Eastern Sierra and Northern Sierra, producing whiteout conditions near Mammoth Mountain and Lake Tahoe, with Big Bear also expecting multiple feet through Wednesday.
• Evacuation warnings were issued through at least 9 a.m. Tuesday for Palisades, Sunset and Hurst burn-scar areas because of mud and debris flow risk.
• Local impacts included a temporary closure of Six Flags Magic Mountain for Monday and road incidents such as seven stalled cars at a flooded intersection on West Olympic Boulevard; one person was assisted with no reported injuries.
• The NWS warned of “small” or “weak” tornadoes as a possibility, though none had been confirmed as of Monday morning.
• High surf and gale warnings were in effect for coastal waters; officials discouraged boating and urged people to avoid the ocean through at least Thursday evening.

Background

Southern California’s late-winter storm pattern frequently brings Pacific systems that produce a mix of coastal rain, valley downpours and mountain snow. This event follows a period of dry weather in many areas and arrives amid heightened concern about rain on recent wildfire burn scars, where soils are hydrophobic and debris-flow risk rises sharply after heavy precipitation. Local emergency managers and the National Weather Service monitor these conditions because past post-fire storms have produced destructive mudflows and rapid runoff that threaten communities below burned slopes.

Forecasters rely on regional models and real-time observations to update rainfall, wind and snow forecasts; for this system the NWS’s Los Angeles office highlighted both variable coastal rainfall and significantly higher totals in orographically favored terrain. Transportation agencies and state highway crews also pay close attention to lowered snow levels and anticipated accumulations on mountain passes such as the Grapevine, which can rapidly develop slippery or impassable conditions and disrupt north–south traffic on I-5.

Main Event

The first surge arrived Monday with periods of heavy rain, frequent gusts and localized urban flooding across parts of Los Angeles County. The storm produced multiple NWS alerts, including citywide flood watches and a wind advisory for much of Monday; high surf advisories were issued through 6 p.m. Thursday for Pacific Palisades, Playa del Rey, San Pedro and the Port of Los Angeles. In some coastal neighborhoods, authorities advised residents to stay out of the ocean and to monitor shoreline conditions as waves and rip currents intensified.

Officials issued evacuation warnings for burn-scar areas — notably the Palisades, Sunset and Hurst zones — citing the elevated threat of mud and debris flows and asking residents to pack essentials and prepare to leave if conditions worsen. Portions of Topanga Canyon Boulevard were closed starting 10 p.m. Sunday and remained restricted into midweek as crews assessed slopes and roadway hazards. The Los Angeles Fire Department reported responding to a flooded intersection near the 12300 block of West Olympic Boulevard where seven vehicles were stalled; one occupant was helped from a car and no injuries were reported.

Meteorologists with the NWS said further rounds of showers were likely Tuesday and Wednesday with lower snow levels overnight into Wednesday morning that could affect driving on routes such as I-5 and the Grapevine near Bakersfield. Mountain resorts and highway crews prepared for heavy, wet snow at higher elevations, while valley and coastal communities faced intermittent downpours and gusts that could produce downed trees and localized outages.

Analysis & Implications

The event illustrates a familiar California weather risk: relatively modest coastal rainfall totals can mask much larger, storm-driven accumulations higher in the terrain. Orographic enhancement typically concentrates precipitation in mountains and foothills, where totals in this system are forecast to exceed double coastal amounts; that pattern elevates avalanche risk at altitude and mudflow danger below burned slopes. For emergency managers, the sharp contrast between valley and mountain totals complicates resource allocation, requiring both urban flood response and mountain search-and-rescue readiness.

Economically, multi-day storms can disrupt commuter patterns and freight movement on critical corridors such as I-5 and Highway 99. Snow on the Grapevine can slow or halt commercial traffic northbound to the Central Valley, potentially delaying deliveries and increasing transportation costs. For tourism and recreation, heavy snowfall threatens short-term closures at mountain passes while boosting winter-sport conditions at higher elevations once operations can safely resume.

Social equity concerns arise because vulnerable communities often face greater exposure to flood impacts and fewer resources for recovery. Burn-scar neighborhoods, in particular, can experience rapid-onset hazards that require swift evacuation and temporary sheltering capacity. Local governments need clear communication channels, extended 311 hours as provided in Los Angeles, and easily accessible alert systems like NotifyLA to reach residents before conditions escalate.

Comparison & Data

The table shows how orographic effects shift precipitation totals upward in the mountains: coastal and valley totals are modest compared with projected mountain and foothill accumulations. That divergence informs flood, road-clearing and avalanche-control planning over the next several days.

Reactions & Quotes

National Weather Service meteorologists emphasized persistent wet conditions and the need for caution across a range of environments. The following quote summarizes the office’s briefing on the storm’s character and hazards.

“It’s going to be a very soggy, wet period over much of the week,”

Mike Wofford, National Weather Service (Los Angeles office)

Officials expanded on operational impacts and public-safety guidance after issuing multiple alerts and watches. The mayor’s office urged residents to heed evacuation guidance and take precautions, especially in burn-scar neighborhoods where runoff can be rapid and destructive.

“This is likely to be another significant weather event that could cause high surf, flooded roadways, downed trees, and mud and debris flows,”

Karen Bass, Mayor of Los Angeles

Private-sector and recreation operators also reacted to the forecast by altering operations. For example, a major regional theme park announced a one-day closure for public safety, offering ticket flexibility to affected customers; transportation and hospitality firms were monitoring for evolving travel disruptions and cancellations.

Unconfirmed

• No tornadoes had been reported as of Monday morning despite NWS warnings that “small” or “weak” tornadoes were possible; any subsequent tornado reports will need verification by storm surveys.
• Specific infrastructure damage reports beyond isolated stalled vehicles and temporary road closures were not confirmed in available public statements as of Monday afternoon.

Bottom Line

This first storm of a multi-day event brought measurable rain to coastal and valley areas and much heavier precipitation to mountains and foothills, with important impacts ranging from localized urban flooding to several feet of mountain snow. The highest short-term risks are mud and debris flows below burn scars, hazardous mountain driving conditions and coastal hazards such as high surf and gale-force winds.

Residents in affected areas should follow local evacuation guidance, monitor official NWS updates and use city alert systems like NotifyLA. While forecasts show a return to sunnier skies by Friday and temperatures in the mid-60s by Saturday, officials warn that several days of precipitation will require sustained attention from emergency managers, road crews and the public.

Sources

• Los Angeles Times (regional news)
• National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard (official forecast office)
• NotifyLA (City of Los Angeles emergency alert system)