Lead
Early voting opened on Tuesday across Texas as the state prepares for its 3 March primary elections, a contest that could reshape the 2026 Senate map. On the Republican side, four-term Senator John Cornyn faces a bruising challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, while an intra-party alternative, Representative Wesley Hunt, also seeks traction. Democrats are choosing between Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Senator James Talarico in a race that asks whether the party should run a combative messenger or a conciliatory builder. Many campaigns and analysts expect a May runoff because Texas requires a majority to secure a nomination.
Key takeaways
- Early voting began Tuesday for Texas primaries set for 3 March 2026, with statewide turnout watched as a bellwether for the midterms.
- Republican Ken Paxton leads Senator John Cornyn in a University of Houston poll, registering 38% to Cornyn’s 31%, with Wesley Hunt at 17% among likely GOP primary voters.
- Texas rules require a majority to win a primary, making an all-but-certain May runoff likely — polls show Paxton expanding his margin in hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Cornyn.
- Democrats are split: a University of Houston poll shows Representative Jasmine Crockett leading James Talarico 47% to 39% among Democratic primary voters.
- Paxton brings a devoted rightwing base and a record of high-profile legal fights on immigration, abortion and election challenges; he was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and later acquitted by the state Senate.
- National dynamics complicate the picture: Trump dominated Texas in 2024 but faces sagging approval and backlash over immigration policies that could open opportunities for Democrats.
- Wealthy Republican donors have intervened to protect Cornyn, warning that Paxton would make general election victory more expensive for the GOP.
Background
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 30 years, and the state remains the largest Republican stronghold in the continental United States. In 2024 former President Donald Trump increased his margin in Texas, including gains among Hispanic voters, underscoring the uphill climb Democrats face. Still, recent local results, such as Democrat Taylor Rehmet winning a Fort Worth-area state senate seat that Trump carried by more than 17 points in 2024, have made both parties reassess assumptions about safe turf.
Within the Republican Party, tensions mirror a national struggle between the traditional GOP establishment and the MAGA-aligned insurgency that reshaped party politics after 2016. Cornyn has been a steady presence in Senate leadership, while Paxton built a national profile through litigation targeting federal policies and by joining efforts around the 2020 election. On the Democratic side, the primary pits two different strategic visions against each other: Crockett offers a hard-charging, media-savvy approach aimed at mobilizing younger and disaffected voters, while Talarico promotes a more coalition-focused, populist message rooted in his background as a teacher and seminarian.
Main event
Republican voters are weighing Cornyn’s institutional experience against Paxton’s combative alignment with conservative base voters. Paxton frames the contest as a continuation of the MAGA movement against the party’s old guard, while Cornyn argues his record and relationships make him the most electable GOP nominee. Wesley Hunt presents a third path, closely allied with Trump but sometimes positioned as an alternative for voters dissatisfied with both Cornyn and Paxton.
On the Democratic ballot, Crockett and Talarico have traded sharply different campaign narratives. Crockett emphasizes confrontational messaging and broad online engagement to energize turnout, while Talarico stresses outreach beyond the base and a moral rhetoric he says can appeal to persuadable Texans. Both candidates have drawn strong grassroots fundraising and digital followings, making the Democratic primary unusually competitive for a state with limited recent statewide Democratic success.
Polls released ahead of early voting show Paxton with a lead in the Republican field and Crockett leading among Democrats, but analysts caution that name recognition, endorsements and late spending can shift dynamics before both the March primary and a probable May runoff. The presence of high-profile statewide races, including Governor Greg Abbott on the ballot, further complicates turnout projections and coattail calculations for down-ballot contests.
Analysis & implications
If Paxton secures the Republican nomination, national strategists say the general election could become costlier and more competitive for the GOP despite Texas’s red tilt. Paxton’s legal record and impeachment history energize a committed conservative base but also provide ample fodder for Democratic attack lines and donor concern about electability in a general election. Donor intervention to bolster Cornyn reflects that calculation: some Republicans view Cornyn as a safer general-election bet even if he is contested within the primary.
For Democrats, the primary outcome will shape messaging and resource allocation. A nominee like Crockett could energize turnout among younger and progressive voters through digital mobilization, while Talarico’s message aims to bridge suburban and minority voters who might otherwise favor Republicans. Yet either nominee would confront the structural challenge of flipping a statewide race in a state where Democrats have not prevailed in decades, meaning national Democrats would likely need to increase investment if the general contest tightened.
Beyond Texas, the state’s primaries are being watched as an early indicator of 2026 national trends. Some analysts draw parallels to 2018, when energized Democratic turnout narrowed margins in several Texas contests. Broader economic sentiment, debates over immigration policy, and President Trump’s standing will all feed into whether Republican vulnerability translates into actual Democratic opportunity. A drawn-out primary calendar, including a runoff, could advantage candidates with the most disciplined turnout operations and clearest base appeals.
Comparison & data
| Race | Top Poll Results |
|---|---|
| Republican primary (University of Houston poll) | Paxton 38%, Cornyn 31%, Hunt 17% |
| Democratic primary (University of Houston poll) | Crockett 47%, Talarico 39% |
The table summarizes the University of Houston polling released before early voting. Because Texas requires a majority to win a primary, these pluralities make a May runoff the likely next phase. Poll margins and likely-voter models can shift during early ballots and in the weeks before March 3, so campaigns are investing heavily in both early-vote outreach and get-out-the-vote operations for the expected runoff.
Reactions & quotes
Analysts highlight the national consequences of a contentious Texas primary and the role of endorsements and donor spending in shaping outcomes.
Before the quote is provided, note that Mark Jones framed the shifting baseline for Texas contests, pointing to recent local upsets and broader national headwinds Republicans face. He argued that political conditions this year complicate the usual starting assumption that Republicans will carry the state easily.
We start off these races always with the assumption that the Republican is going to win.
Mark Jones, Rice University (political scientist)
After Jones’s observation, other experts echoed that current economic sentiment and immigration debates could narrow margins, making Texas more contestable than in prior cycles. His framing is frequently cited by campaign strategists adjusting their plans for both parties.
James Henson emphasized the tactical costs and possible benefits tied to different nominees, noting how nominee selection could alter resource allocation and general-election prospects.
Victory becomes more costly for Republicans, but it is certainly not out of the question.
James Henson, University of Texas at Austin (Texas Politics Project director)
Henson’s point underlines why wealthy Republican donors have intervened to shore up Cornyn; they view his renomination as a way to reduce general-election risk. His analysis also flagged the uncertain role of a Trump endorsement in disrupting or reinforcing current dynamics.
Democratic operatives and observers described the primary as a test of competing strategic visions, with grassroots energy and online engagement emerging as decisive factors for turnout.
When Jasmine got into the race, I predicted that this was going to be the most online US senatorial race in the country.
Monique Alcala, former Texas Democratic Party executive director
That online intensity has translated to fundraising and attention, increasing pressure on national Democrats to decide how much to invest in Texas if the GOP nominee appears vulnerable. Campaigns on both sides are watching early returns and digital metrics closely as indicators of momentum.
Unconfirmed
- Whether former President Trump will endorse any Republican candidate in the primary remains undecided and publicly unannounced; his planned action could materially shift dynamics.
- Allegations reported about a private comment attributed to James Talarico characterizing a rival as a “mediocre Black man” are based on an influencer’s account and have been disputed by Talarico, leaving the exact wording and context unresolved.
Bottom line
Early voting in Texas launches what may be one of the most closely watched primary cycles in the state in years. On the Republican side, a Paxton nomination would likely force the GOP to spend more to hold statewide offices, while Cornyn’s renomination would preserve a more conventional path to victory. For Democrats, picking between Crockett and Talarico is a choice about message and voter activation in a state they have long eyed but rarely won.
Practically, the March 3 primary is only the first chapter: a probable May runoff and the general election dynamics that follow will determine whether these contests become pivotal national battlegrounds in 2026. Campaigns, donors and national strategists will be watching early-vote returns, polling shifts and any high-profile endorsements that could reshape the field.
Sources
- The Guardian (news report summarizing polling, candidate positions and campaign developments)