— OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day from October, beginning an early unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd cut as Saudi Arabia seeks to recover market share while moderating the pace of recent monthly increases amid expectations of weaker fourth-quarter demand.
Key Takeaways
- The group approved a 137,000 bpd rise in output from October.
- This move begins an early rollback of a 1.65 million bpd cut by eight members.
- Earlier unwinding: a 2.5 million bpd tranche was already returned since April.
- Monthly increases have been much larger recently — about 555,000 bpd for August/September and 411,000 bpd in July/June.
- OPEC+ says it can accelerate, pause or reverse hikes and will meet next on Oct. 5.
- Oil prices are about $65 a barrel, down roughly 15% this year, supporting the return of barrels to market.
- Most members are near capacity; only Saudi Arabia and the UAE can add meaningful extra barrels.
Verified Facts
At an online meeting on Sept. 7, eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise combined output by 137,000 bpd starting in October, according to the group’s statement. That increase is far smaller than the roughly 555,000 bpd monthly additions seen in August and September and the approximately 411,000 bpd added in June and July.
The decision starts an early unwinding of a second tranche of cuts — about 1.65 million bpd across eight members — more than a year ahead of the previously communicated schedule. A first tranche of 2.5 million bpd was fully unwound from April, equivalent to roughly 2.4% of global demand.
OPEC+ said it retains flexibility to change course at future meetings and has scheduled the next meeting of the eight members for Oct. 5. Public statements and data show most OPEC+ members are producing close to capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the main sources of additional supply.
Market reaction this year has included a price decline of about 15%, bringing benchmark crude to near $65 a barrel, while sanctions on some producers have helped keep prices from collapsing. The output increases have coincided with weaker refinery margins and reduced oil-company profits, and have been followed by industry cost-cutting and job reductions.
Context & Impact
The incremental 137,000 bpd rise is small in absolute terms but signals a strategic priority: several members, led by Saudi Arabia, are seeking to regain or defend market share after years of coordinated cuts. Analysts note the move shifts emphasis from price-support to volume.
Timing matters: demand often weakens in the northern hemisphere winter. If consumption slows as expected in Q4, added barrels could widen a supply surplus, pressuring prices further and testing the group’s ability to manage output collectively.
- Short-term: modest additional supply may keep downward pressure on prices, particularly if economic growth softens.
- Medium-term: sustained higher output from the UAE and Saudi Arabia can alter export patterns and supplier competition.
Official Statements
OPEC+ confirmed the 137,000 bpd increase and said members retain the option to accelerate, pause or reverse hikes at future meetings.
OPEC+ statement, Sept. 7, 2025
Unconfirmed
- The extent to which Saudi policy is driven solely by market-share goals versus fiscal or geopolitical considerations remains an analyst assessment, not a formal admission.
- Forecasters’ expectations of a sizable northern-hemisphere winter glut are projections and depend on near-term demand and supply developments.
Bottom Line
The 137,000 bpd October increase is modest in volume but significant in message: OPEC+ is shifting toward restoring barrels to the market while keeping options open to respond to demand or price moves. The coming weeks — including the Oct. 5 meeting and fourth-quarter demand trends — will be key to whether this policy tightrope stabilizes or further unsettles oil markets.