Lead
A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds President Donald Trump’s approval on immigration at 38%, the lowest recorded since his return to the White House, as administration deportation operations proceed. The figure marks a drop from 39% in January and far below the roughly 50% approval he held in the weeks after taking office again. The decline is evident across demographic groups, with male support falling to 41% and women’s approval down to 35%. The polling comes amid high-profile enforcement actions and two recent fatal confrontations in Minnesota that have intensified public scrutiny.
Key Takeaways
- Reuters/Ipsos reports Trump’s approval on immigration at 38%, down from 39% in January and from near 50% earlier after his return to the White House.
- Male approval on immigration slipped to 41% from about 50% last year; female approval fell to 35% from roughly 40% during most of 2025.
- The president’s overall job approval is reported at 38% by Reuters/Ipsos, while the New York Times average places it near 40%.
- An NBC News Decision Desk poll (Jan. 27–Feb. 6) found 49% of Americans strongly oppose Trump’s handling of border security, up from 38% last summer.
- An Economist/YouGov survey (Jan. 30–Feb. 2) found 50% of respondents describe Trump’s immigration approach as “too harsh.”
- Federal immigration operations, including actions in Minnesota, and the fatal shootings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti have coincided with the drop in approval.
- ICE announced a pullback of agents from Minnesota after weeks of unrest, per border czar Tom Homan.
Background
Immigration was central to Trump’s 2024 campaign, with repeated promises to carry out large-scale deportation operations. Upon returning to the Oval Office, the administration prioritized enforcement measures, deploying federal agents to cities that had been governed by Democrats in previous years. These moves were framed by the White House as efforts to restore border security and enforce immigration laws more stringently.
Historically, immigration has been a polarizing issue that can both mobilize the conservative base and alienate independents and suburban voters. In the immediate aftermath of his second inauguration, Trump enjoyed relatively high approval on immigration—near 50% in some polls—but that margin has narrowed as enforcement actions became more visible and confrontations mounted.
Localities such as Minneapolis–Saint Paul have seen repeated federal operations that sparked clashes with residents, local officials, and advocacy groups. Fatal incidents involving U.S. citizens in Minnesota last month have intensified media attention and public debate over tactics, oversight and civil‑rights implications of the surge operations.
Main Event
The Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month shows immigration approval at 38%, a new low in the tracking series cited by multiple outlets. The decline is incremental but consistent across gender lines and other subgroups that were once reliable for Trump. Officials in the White House did not immediately answer requests for comment on the latest poll, according to reporting.
Federal agents were dispatched to several largely Democratic cities early in the administration’s second term to carry out arrests and removals. The operations, intended to show the administration delivering on campaign promises, included sweeps that local leaders and residents criticized as heavy-handed and disruptive to communities.
In Minnesota, two fatal encounters—Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti—have become focal points for criticism of federal conduct. Following weeks of unrest, ICE’s acting border operations chief Tom Homan said agents would withdraw from Minnesota, stating the surge operation would conclude with the president’s concurrence.
Political figures have reacted along partisan lines. Vice President J.D. Vance dismissed a Fox News poll favoring Democrats for the midterms and framed the choice as between restoring public safety and returning governance to the opposition. Polling experts warn that sustained approval below 50% can presage significant midterm losses for the president’s party.
Analysis & Implications
The drop in immigration approval highlights a potential political trade-off: implementing a high-profile promise versus maintaining broader public support. Enforcement actions that energize the GOP base can simultaneously alienate independents and swing voters, who were decisive in the 2024 outcome. The Reuters/Ipsos decline among men—from around 50% to 41%—is particularly notable because that group was a linchpin of Trump’s victory last year.
Polling divergences matter for strategy. The Reuters/Ipsos and NBC Decision Desk findings point to rising intensity of opposition—”strongly oppose” rising to 49% in one series—while other averages put overall approval near 40%. That gap suggests varying degrees of backlash depending on how questions are framed (policy approval versus general job performance) and how recently events unfolded.
Electoral consequences could be significant if the trend persists into the midterms. Republican pollster Whit Ayres has linked sustained sub‑50% presidential approval to larger seat losses for the president’s party in midterms, estimating an average loss of about 32 seats when approval is below that threshold. If immigration remains a negative mobilizer for independents, it could broaden Democratic opportunities in swing districts.
Operationally, the administration’s partial retreat from Minnesota illustrates how on-the-ground incidents reshape policy execution. Announcing a pullback may reduce immediate tensions but also creates messaging challenges: defenders argue the enforcement pause is tactical, while critics see it as an implicit acknowledgment of excessive force or poor planning.
Comparison & Data
| Group | Earlier | Now (Reuters/Ipsos) |
|---|---|---|
| Immigration approval (general) | ~50% (weeks after return) | 38% |
| Approval in January | — | 39% |
| Male voters (immigration) | ~50% (2024) | 41% |
| Female voters (immigration) | ~40% (most of 2025) | 35% |
| President’s overall approval | 47% (start of 2nd term) | 38% (Reuters/Ipsos) / ~40% (NYT avg) |
The table collates the key figures cited across recent polls to illustrate directional change. Different polling methodologies and question wordings produce variance—Reuters/Ipsos shows the 38% figure, the New York Times average centers near 40%, and single‑issue polls (e.g., Economist/YouGov) capture specific attitudes like perceived harshness. Contextualizing these numbers is essential: a few points’ movement can reflect both substantive shifts in opinion and short-term reaction to news events.
Reactions & Quotes
“I have proposed, and President Trump has concurred, that this surge operation conclude.”
Tom Homan, Senior DHS/ICE official (public statement)
Homan framed the pullback as a managed conclusion to a targeted surge, defending federal agents as legitimate law enforcement amid criticism and viral videos of confrontations.
“I will say, as much as we love Fox News, we always think Fox News has the worst polling… Me and the president agree on that.”
Vice President J.D. Vance (media appearance)
Vance disputed a Fox News poll that showed Democratic advantage for the midterms, using the remark to question the poll’s reliability and to rally the administration’s messaging on public safety and economic stewardship.
“When the president’s job approval is below [50%], the average loss of seats is 32.”
Whit Ayres, Republican pollster (Politico interview)
Ayres warned that sustained sub‑50% approval typically presages significant losses for the president’s party in midterm elections, underscoring the electoral risk of prolonged unpopular policy positions.
Unconfirmed
- Direct causation between the Minnesota shootings and the specific drop in the Reuters/Ipsos immigration approval figure is not proven; polls capture correlation and timing but do not establish direct causality.
- Exact totals and scope of the deportation operations described on the campaign trail as “the largest in U.S. history” have not been independently verified in public federal tallies released to date.
- Discrepancies between different polling organizations (e.g., Reuters/Ipsos vs. NYT average vs. Fox) reflect methodology differences that require side‑by‑side technical comparison to resolve fully.
Bottom Line
Trump’s policy on immigration remains a core campaign promise being actively implemented, but recent polling shows that enforcement actions have coincided with a measurable decrease in public approval on that specific issue. The decline is small in absolute points but significant politically because it erodes margins among groups that were previously supportive—particularly male and independent voters.
If the trend endures, it could have tangible electoral consequences for the president’s party in the midterms, as historical patterns link sustained sub‑50% approval to larger seat losses. The administration’s tactical decisions—such as the Minnesota pullback—signal an effort to manage immediate fallout while preserving the broader policy agenda. Watch for whether public sentiment stabilizes after the pause or whether further incidents deepen the shift in opinion.
Sources
- The Daily Beast — news report summarizing polling and recent events (media)
- Reuters / Ipsos — polling organization and reporting cited for approval figures (media/poll)
- NBC News Decision Desk — poll on strong opposition to border handling (media)
- The Economist / YouGov — survey on perceptions of policy harshness (media/poll)
- The New York Times — polling average referenced for overall approval (media/aggregator)