Lead: The Miami Dolphins face a consequential roster and payroll choice for 2026 involving quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Contract language from 2024 leaves the team owing Tagovailoa $54.0 million that is fully guaranteed for the coming season, while releasing him without a post‑June 1 designation would create a $99.2 million dead‑money charge in 2026. The club can instead use a post‑June 1 split to push $43.8 million into 2027 and carry $55.4 million against the 2026 cap. Executives and cap analysts say the move the Dolphins choose will materially shape roster construction and competitive prospects for 2026.
Key Takeaways
- The Dolphins owe Tua Tagovailoa $54.0 million guaranteed for the 2026 season under his 2024 contract.
- If Miami releases Tua without a post‑June 1 designation, the team would absorb $99.2 million in dead money against the 2026 cap.
- Using a post‑June 1 cut would split the dead money: $55.4 million in 2026 and $43.8 million in 2027.
- Projected NFL salary cap for 2026 is between $301.2 million and $305.7 million, making a $99.2 million hit equal to roughly 32.4%–32.9% of the team’s cap space.
- Electing to take the entire charge in 2026 would free the Dolphins of Tagovailoa‑related obligations in 2027, at the expense of short‑term roster flexibility.
- Many league observers describe the all‑in 2026 option as tantamount to a soft tank, since it reduces the team’s ability to add or retain talent that season.
Background
In 2024 the Dolphins — under then‑general manager Chris Grier — agreed to terms that left substantial guaranteed money remaining on Tua Tagovailoa’s deal. That structure means the club is contractually committed to at least $54.0 million payable in the upcoming year. NFL contracts often include signing‑bonus proration and guaranteed salary elements that create large dead‑money outcomes if a team cuts a player before the schedule of amortization completes.
Teams faced with large dead‑money liabilities typically have three basic paths: carry the charge all in a single year, use post‑June 1 designations to split charges across two years, or restructure/extend the player’s contract to convert current salary to future bonuses. For Miami the critical choice is whether to accept a six‑figure drain on the 2026 cap now or defer a material portion to 2027 when the overall cap is likely higher.
Main Event
League conversations in recent days indicate limited expectation that Tagovailoa will return as Miami’s Week‑1 starter in 2026. If the team decides to cut him and forgo a post‑June 1 designation, the accounting accelerates and the full $99.2 million hits the 2026 cap. That would immediately remove Tagovailoa’s contract from the club’s books for 2027, simplifying future cap planning at the cost of available spending this year.
The alternative — a post‑June 1 designation — allows Miami to show $55.4 million in dead money for 2026 and the remaining $43.8 million in 2027. For many teams, spreading charges is a way to preserve short‑term competitiveness while accepting longer‑term obligations. Some in the league argue Miami could be comfortable shouldering a larger 2026 bill if ownership prioritizes clearing the ledger for 2027.
Cap projections for 2026 — currently estimated between $301.2 million and $305.7 million — magnify the decision: taking the whole $99.2 million would consume roughly one‑third of projected payroll capacity. That concentration of resources would complicate free‑agent signings, draft‑day maneuvers and retention of key role players ahead of the 2026 season.
Analysis & Implications
Taking the entire $99.2 million dead money in 2026 would be an unusually large single‑year cap commitment for any club and would likely be described internally as a deliberate sacrifice of short‑term competitiveness. With roughly 32% of that year’s cap tied to one former starter, the Dolphins would face constrained options in free agency and limited room to refresh the roster through veteran signings.
Deferring $43.8 million to 2027 via the post‑June 1 mechanism reduces the 2026 percentage impact and spreads the pain across two seasons. Because league revenues — and thus the salary cap — commonly rise year‑to‑year, the deferred dollars are likely to represent a smaller share of a larger 2027 cap, diminishing their relative effect and easing roster construction.
Another practical consideration is signaling and competitive intent. Absorbing the full 2026 hit could be interpreted publicly as a tacit acknowledgment that the team deprioritizes 2026 competitiveness to secure greater flexibility in 2027. That perception may affect coaching, player morale and fan expectations, even if management frames the move as long‑term prudence.
Finally, the choice has tradeoffs in roster calculus. Clearing Tagovailoa entirely in 2026 would simplify quarterback planning in 2027 and remove lingering uncertainty. But it also risks returning a weakened roster to the field in 2026, potentially undermining the development of young players and coaching continuity.
Comparison & Data
| Scenario | 2026 Cap Hit | 2027 Cap Hit | 2026 % of Cap (range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Release without post‑June 1 | $99.2M | $0 | 32.4%–32.9% |
| Post‑June 1 designation | $55.4M | $43.8M | 18.1%–18.4% |
| Guaranteed salary owed | $54.0M (guaranteed) | — | — |
The table shows the arithmetic facing Miami. Using a post‑June 1 split reduces immediate burden substantially; the guaranteed $54.0 million for 2026 remains owed in either scenario. The percent columns use the current projected cap band ($301.2M–$305.7M) to illustrate relative scale and the real constraints on roster spending.
Reactions & Quotes
“Some in league circles expect Miami to absorb the full $99.2 million charge rather than split it.”
NBC Sports (reporting on league discussion)
“Taking a nine‑figure dead‑money hit in one season would tie up roughly a third of projected cap space and materially limit roster moves.”
Independent salary‑cap analyst (paraphrase)
“By deferring nearly $44 million into 2027, Miami would reduce 2026 disruption while accepting longer‑term obligations.”
Cap observer (industry commentary, paraphrase)
Unconfirmed
- Whether the Dolphins will ultimately release Tagovailoa in 2026 is not confirmed; the team has made no official announcement.
- Any internal plan to accept the full $99.2 million hit or to designate a post‑June 1 cut remains unconfirmed and subject to change.
- The exact 2026 league salary cap could differ from current projections between $301.2 million and $305.7 million; final numbers will be set by league revenue results and the NFL’s official announcement.
Bottom Line
The Dolphins’ decision on how to handle Tua Tagovailoa’s contract is primarily a choice between short‑term pain and medium‑term flexibility. Taking the entire $99.2 million dead‑money charge in 2026 would clear the contract from future ledgers but severely restrict the club’s ability to improve the roster that year.
Conversely, using a post‑June 1 split eases 2026 pressure at the cost of carrying obligations into 2027, when the cap is likely larger and the relative impact smaller. For front‑office planners, the question becomes whether preserving a clearer 2027 balance sheet justifies tolerating constrained competitiveness in the immediate season.