Lead
Traders at the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 18, 2026, saw U.S. stock futures hold near flat after major averages posted gains earlier in the session. Futures tied to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down modestly as a weaker-than-expected full-year outlook from Walmart weighed on sentiment. Rising crude prices amid simmering U.S.–Iran tensions added to market caution, while economic data on jobless claims and the December trade deficit delivered mixed signals. The net effect: markets paused to digest better earnings and rotating leadership even as headline risks kept investors alert.
Key Takeaways
- Dow futures fell about 130 points, roughly a 0.3% decline, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 0.4% on Feb. 18, 2026.
- Walmart shares traded about 3% lower after management lowered its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $2.75–$2.85 versus LSEG consensus of $2.96 per share.
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 1% to trade above $66 per barrel as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept oil markets sensitive to supply risks.
- Initial jobless claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ending Feb. 14, a decline of 23,000 from the prior week and below the Dow Jones estimate of 223,000.
- The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply to $70.3 billion in December, up $17.3 billion month-over-month and well above the $55.5 billion forecast.
- The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index climbed to 16.3, the highest reading since September, though its employment component slipped to -1.3—the first negative reading since June 2025.
Background
U.S. equity markets entered the week with a recent pattern of rotation: the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology leaders had driven much of the rally, then gave up some ground as investors reassessed valuations and sought exposure to cyclical and value sectors. That backdrop has made market moves more sensitive to corporate guidance, macroeconomic prints and geopolitical headlines. Retail heavyweights such as Walmart are carefully watched because their forecasts can signal consumer strength or weakness, and adjustments to guidance often reverberate across retail and consumer‑focused stocks.
On the geopolitical front, renewed friction between the United States and Iran has been a recurring source of risk for energy markets. Even limited escalations or threatening rhetoric can prompt immediate buying in crude futures because of the geography’s outsized role in global oil flows. Separately, trade dynamics remain salient: December’s jump in the trade deficit contrasts with a full‑year decline of 0.2% despite tariff policies intended to curb imbalances, reflecting complex effects of global demand, supply chains and pricing.
Main Event
Futures trading on Feb. 18 reflected a cautious market taking stock after a broadly positive session for the major averages. Gains in mega‑cap technology stocks and strength in financials and energy had supported equities, but overnight and premarket moves were muted as investors parsed company guidance and macro prints. The Dow futures move—about 130 points lower—represented a modest reversal of earlier optimism rather than a decisive shift.
Walmart reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue and earnings, aided by e‑commerce, advertising and marketplace growth, but its full‑year adjusted EPS outlook of $2.75–$2.85 missed the LSEG consensus of $2.96. Market participants sold the stock on the guidance miss despite solid quarterly results, a reaction seen across several large retailers when forward targets disappoint.
Energy markets also influenced the tone: WTI futures climbed above $66 per barrel, rising more than 1% as investors priced in the risk that U.S.–Iran tensions could disrupt crude flows or raise risk premia. With energy stocks contributing positively to the prior session’s gains, the firming oil price supported pockets of market strength even as it heightened macro uncertainty.
Analysis & Implications
The juxtaposition of healthy headline earnings and cautious guidance highlights a central market dynamic: investors are increasingly differentiating between near‑term results and forward prospects. Walmart’s Q4 beat shows underlying demand resilience, but the trimmed outlook signals either margin pressure, cost uncertainty or a conservative posture on consumer spending trends. For portfolio managers, that means company guidance can have outsized short‑term impact, even when quarterly numbers exceed expectations.
Macro data added mixed signals. The sizable drop in initial jobless claims to 206,000 points to continued labor market firmness, which supports consumer spending and economic resilience. At the same time, the unexpected widening of the December trade deficit to $70.3 billion raises questions about external demand, import dynamics and the impact of trade policy—factors that can influence GDP growth and corporate revenues into 2026.
From a valuation and positioning standpoint, the recent correction in mega‑cap tech has removed some froth, but experts caution it may not be enough to restore long‑run leadership to the sector. As Edward Jones’ Angelo Kourkafas and others note, the interplay of macro conditions and sector rotation makes a durable return to tech dominance uncertain; meanwhile, cyclical and energy stocks may benefit if data continue to favor a stronger domestic economy and higher commodity prices.
Comparison & Data
| Item | Reading | Change / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | -130 pts (~-0.3%) | Feb. 18 premarket |
| S&P 500 futures | -0.3% | Feb. 18 premarket |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | -0.4% | Feb. 18 premarket |
| Walmart full‑year EPS outlook | $2.75–$2.85 | LSEG consensus $2.96 |
| WTI crude | > $66 / barrel | Up >1% |
| Initial jobless claims | 206,000 | -23,000 week over week |
| U.S. trade deficit (Dec.) | $70.3 billion | + $17.3 billion month over month |
| Philadelphia Fed index | 16.3 | Highest since Sept.; employment -1.3 |
The table above summarizes market moves and key macro readings referenced in this report. Taken together, the data show mixed signals: labor remains resilient, trade balances swung sharply in December, and energy markets are reacting to geopolitical risk—factors that collectively support a cautious tilt among investors.
Reactions & Quotes
Market strategists put recent moves into the context of sector rotation and valuation reappraisals, underscoring why forward guidance matters more than ever.
“A rebound in mega‑cap stocks, along with a pause in the rotation and broadening theme that has defined market performance this year, would not be surprising in the weeks ahead,”
Angelo Kourkafas, Senior Global Investment Strategist, Edward Jones
Kourkafas emphasized that broad selling has been indiscriminate at times and that some valuations may already price in disruption risks beyond current fundamentals.
“Purely from a valuation standpoint, the Mag‑7 isn’t as expensive as it was, but it’s not cheap either,”
Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research
Yardeni noted the group’s forward price‑to‑sales ratio has fallen but remains elevated relative to historical norms outside the past two years, highlighting why investors are wrestling with how much rotation is durable.
Unconfirmed
- Any reports suggesting imminent direct military action between the U.S. and Iran were not confirmed at the time of this report and remain speculative.
- Market commentary attributing the December trade deficit spike solely to specific tariff policies lacks definitive causal proof and requires further analysis.
Bottom Line
Markets are navigating a mix of supportive earnings, sector rotation and headline risks. Walmart’s guidance shortfall shows how forward estimates can overshadow strong quarterly results, prompting swift investor reweighting across retail and related sectors. Energy’s response to geopolitical tensions keeps an upside risk to oil prices and supports certain cyclicals, while strong labor data underpins a resilient consumer backdrop.
Investors should expect further dispersion: companies with clear earnings visibility and cyclical exposure may outperform if macro momentum holds, while lofty valuation sectors will remain sensitive to growth and sentiment shifts. Near term, market direction will likely hinge on incoming economic data, corporate guidance updates and whether geopolitical frictions escalate or abate.
Sources
- CNBC — Live market updates (media/financial news)
- U.S. Department of Labor — Initial claims data (official government release)
- LSEG — Market consensus and analyst data (market data provider)