Lead
A coastal winter storm expected Sunday into Monday could drop a widespread 2 to 6 inches of snow across New Jersey, the National Weather Service said in an initial forecast on Feb. 20, 2026. Forecasters warned the numbers are tentative and likely to change as the storm’s track becomes clearer. Snow is forecast to begin Sunday morning, intensify through Sunday afternoon and night, and taper off into Monday night. Gusty winds and pockets of coastal flooding are possible along the Jersey Shore.
Key Takeaways
- The National Weather Service issued an initial statewide snowfall range of 2–6 inches for Sunday into Monday (Feb. 20, 2026 forecast).
- The NWS assessed a roughly 60–80% probability of at least 2 inches statewide, with 25–45% chances of 6 inches or more in some areas.
- AccuWeather’s guidance shows 3–6 inches across southern New Jersey and 1–3 inches elsewhere, highlighting model disagreement.
- Snow is expected to start Sunday morning, peak Sunday afternoon and night, then wind down Monday into Monday night.
- Coastal communities should prepare for gusty winds and the potential for coastal flooding during high tide cycles.
- Short-term impacts: light wintry precipitation persists through Friday morning in northern counties; a winter weather advisory is in effect for Sussex County until noon with a risk of ice glazing roads.
- Temperatures will swing widely Friday—near 60°F in the far south, 40s in much of the state, and mid–upper 30s in northwest counties—then trend colder after the storm.
Background
Coastal storms in late winter often produce a wide range of outcomes in New Jersey because small shifts in track and timing dramatically alter precipitation type and accumulation. The Jersey Shore and nearby inland counties are especially sensitive: a track closer to the coast typically draws in moisture and heavier snow, while a further offshore solution limits accumulation to light wintry mix or rain. Forecasters rely on multiple numerical models—each with different initial conditions and physics—which is why guidance remains split within 72 hours of the event.
State and local emergency managers monitor such forecasts closely because wind-driven water levels can cause nuisance to moderate coastal flooding even when snowfall is modest. Past late-winter coastal storms have produced localized heavy bands of snow that overwhelmed road crews and led to travel advisories; that risk heightens whenever models cluster around a coastal solution. Key stakeholders include the National Weather Service (regional office), municipal public works, and transportation agencies that stage salt and plow resources ahead of expected accumulations.
Main Event
The National Weather Service’s initial forecast issued early Friday set a general storm-total range of 2–6 inches across most of New Jersey, but emphasized that those totals are likely to change as model guidance evolves. Snow is forecast to begin Sunday morning and increase in intensity through Sunday afternoon and evening, with the heaviest periods expected Sunday night. The NWS noted that a track closer to the coastline would push totals toward the higher end of the range, while a more offshore path would likely yield lighter accumulations or a wintry mix.
AccuWeather’s forecast map, issued the same day, showed a tendency toward 3–6 inches across southern New Jersey and 1–3 inches elsewhere in the state, underscoring the current forecast spread. The NWS also provided probability guidance: roughly a 60–80% chance of at least 2 inches and a 25–45% chance of 6 inches or more in some locations. The regional NWS office for New York estimated about 4 inches for much of the New York metro area, including parts of northeastern New Jersey, with isolated 6-inch amounts in sections of Passaic County.
Beyond snowfall, forecasters flagged gusty winds that could produce blowing snow and locally hazardous travel, along with potential coastal flooding along the Jersey Shore during peak tidal cycles. A winter weather advisory remained in effect for Sussex County until noon Friday, where forecasters warned of a coating of ice that could make roads slick. After the system departs, temperatures are expected to fall: Monday and Tuesday highs should be mostly in the 30s with lows in the teens and 20s, before a milder trend returns later next week.
Analysis & Implications
Forecast uncertainty within 72 hours reflects differences among operational models and the influence of small-scale dynamics near the coast. When guidance diverges, the range in possible outcomes expands—from a light accumulation scenario to pockets of moderate snowfall near the shoreline. That variability complicates operational decisions for road crews and transit agencies, which must balance staging resources early against the cost of standing them down if the storm trends offshore.
Economically, even modest snowfall can disrupt commute patterns in the densely populated corridors of northern and central New Jersey, magnifying impacts during the Monday morning peak if snowfall persists into early hours. Coastal flooding, if it occurs, could temporarily affect low-lying access roads, boardwalks and small businesses that operate seasonally. Emergency-management officials must therefore prepare for layered hazards: snow accumulation, wind-driven reductions in visibility, and coastal water-level rises.
Public messaging will be critical. Authorities should emphasize that initial ranges are forecasts, not certainties, and that conditions can change with little lead time. Residents along the shore should monitor tide timings and any local flood advisories, while inland drivers should be ready for slushy or icy stretches, especially where daytime temperatures hover near freezing. Travel-planning decisions for Sunday and Monday should remain flexible, and those with safety-critical roles should track updates from the National Weather Service and local officials.
Comparison & Data
| Source | Typical Guidance | Target Areas |
|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service (initial) | 2–6 inches statewide, 60–80% ≥2″, 25–45% ≥6″ | Most of NJ; higher near coast and NE counties |
| AccuWeather | 3–6″ in southern NJ; 1–3″ elsewhere | Southern NJ favored for higher totals |
The table summarizes the primary operational guidance available as of Feb. 20, 2026. Differences arise because each provider weights model ensembles and observational updates differently; NWS emphasizes a probabilistic envelope while private services often present deterministic maps. That means users should consult both probabilistic forecasts (for risk framing) and deterministic maps (for planning) and expect adjustments as new model cycles run.
Reactions & Quotes
Officials at the National Weather Service framed the bulletin as provisional and urged residents to watch for updates as the forecast refines over the weekend.
“The initial storm total snowfall forecast is generally a widespread 2–6 inches across most of the area,”
National Weather Service (NWS bulletin, Feb. 20, 2026)
The agency also highlighted model spread as the reason for ongoing uncertainty and the need for close monitoring.
“These amounts are still highly uncertain and will likely change in future updates,”
National Weather Service (forecast discussion)
Private forecasters noted differences in the highest-end totals and urged local preparedness for coastal impacts.
“AccuWeather’s map favors 3–6 inches in the south and 1–3 inches elsewhere, reflecting one plausible solution among several,”
AccuWeather forecast summary
Unconfirmed
- Exact coastal flooding heights and the timing of any inundation remain uncertain until the storm’s track and tide timing are finalized.
- Localized narrow bands of heavier snow (thunder-snow or mesoscale bands) that could produce brief higher totals have not been verified in models and remain possible.
- Whether some southern areas will see rain mixing with snow at any point depends on subtle temperature gradients that are not yet resolved.
Bottom Line
The weekend coastal storm poses a credible chance of 2–6 inches of snow across much of New Jersey but remains a forecast-in-progress; probabilities favor at least minor accumulation while leaving room for higher local amounts if the track shifts coastalward. Residents should plan for changing conditions: check forecasts repeatedly on Saturday and Sunday, allow extra travel time if venturing out Sunday night or Monday morning, and heed local advisories for coastal flooding during high tides.
Municipalities and road crews should maintain readiness for snow removal and localized flooding responses but balance that with the possibility that the event could weaken or shift offshore. The clearest guidance will emerge from model updates and official NWS briefings within 48 hours of the storm’s arrival—monitor those products for final accumulations and specific impact statements.