Lead
This Presidents Day weekend box office race tightened as Sony Pictures Animation’s GOAT and Warner Bros./MRC’s Wuthering Heights battled for the North American No. 1 spot. As of Saturday morning estimates, GOAT is tracking to a Fri–Sun of roughly $15.7M while Wuthering Heights is estimated at $14.7M domestically; the latter’s running U.S. total stands at $60.5M. Internationally, Wuthering Heights pushed its global cumulative to roughly $125.8M after a $11.6M worldwide Friday, while industry seasonal trends and upcoming releases suggest a stronger March ahead of Super Mario Galaxy’s Easter debut.
Key Takeaways
- Sony’s GOAT is estimated at a $15.7M Fri–Sun weekend in North America, with Sony internally projecting $13M–$14M.
- Wuthering Heights is estimated at $14.7M domestically this weekend (‑55% weekend drop) and has a U.S. running cume of $60.5M.
- Globally, Wuthering Heights earned $11.6M on Friday to bring its worldwide cume to $125.8M; studios project roughly $151M running cume across 77 markets on a strong international weekend.
- The 2026 year-to-date North American box office stands at about $1.05 billion, roughly 7% ahead of the same point in 2025.
- China’s recent New Year slate has amassed approximately $644.6M since Tuesday, led by Pegasus 3 ($344.9M) and Zhang Yimou’s Scare Out ($105.1M), per Maoyan.
- Lionsgate/Kingdom’s I Can Only Imagine 2 opened with $1.8M in previews and is tracking to $8M+ for the weekend across 3,105 theaters; CinemaScore registered an A+ and 86% definite recommend.
- A24’s How to Make a Killing posted $1.66M on Friday and is tracking to about $3.3M at 1,625 theaters; early critical reception sits near 48% on Rotten Tomatoes.
- NEON’s EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert opened strong with $1.4M Friday and an estimated $2.5M–$3M weekend from 325 locations, buoyed by high theater averages in key markets.
Background
The post‑Presidents Day frame is typically a soft theatrical period, but year‑to‑date totals show the market remains healthy: roughly $1.05 billion through mid‑February 2026, up about 7% from 2025. Last March’s box office sag—driven by a string of underperformers before A Minecraft Movie—had raised questions about audience appetite, but the current slate of family and franchise titles suggests recovery into spring.
Studios are calibrating release strategies accordingly. Sony Pictures Animation launched GOAT into a wide footprint (3,863 theaters) aiming at family audiences, while Warner Bros. and MRC positioned Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights as a more adult, R‑rated take on a classic, opening around 3,682 theaters. Distributors have leaned on early tracking, previews and regional play patterns to set weekend expectations in the absence of a dominant tentpole.
International markets—particularly China—remain decisive revenue drivers. Recent Lunar New Year grosses reported by Maoyan show local productions and franchise entries delivering outsized returns, underscoring the growing weight of overseas box office on global cume calculations and studio release planning.
Main Event
Saturday estimates show GOAT with an industry‑estimated three‑day of $15.7M, a decline near 42% from opening. Sony’s internal messaging placed the weekend range slightly lower at $13M–$14M. The family animation played broadly and benefited from matinees, but attendance softened compared with opening frames for some recent hits.
Wuthering Heights, despite an R rating and a female‑led cast, posted a respectable second‑weekend hold with an estimated $14.7M (‑55%). Domestic momentum for the Emerald Fennell adaptation has pushed its U.S. total to roughly $60.5M, with international receipts lifting the global tally into six figures in millions.
Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s I Can Only Imagine 2 leveraged strong previews—$1.8M, including early Valentine’s Day screenings—into a projected weekend in the $8M range across 3,105 theaters. Demographic breakdowns show the sequel is playing primarily to older faith‑based audiences (51% over 55; 57% women 25+), and the title is following the franchise’s traditional Bible Belt corridor.
Among specialty and limited releases, A24’s handling of How to Make a Killing posted $1.66M on Friday for a likely $3.3M opening at 1,625 theaters; early critical scores around 48% and lack of audience polling suggest modest upside and a possible PVOD pivot. NEON’s EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert scored a notably strong per‑location average with a $1.4M Friday and an estimated $2.5M–$3M weekend at 325 sites, playing well in legacy Elvis markets.
Analysis & Implications
The tight race between GOAT and Wuthering Heights illustrates how genre and audience segmentation shape weekend outcomes when no major tentpole is present. Family animation can draw steady matinee crowds, but adult‑oriented prestige or provocative takes—backed by awards‑season visibility—can maintain durable legs and strong international appeal. Studios without franchise footholds now rely on targeted demos and regional strengths to sustain box office.
International receipts are increasingly decisive for midbudget and prestige films. Wuthering Heights’ international haul pushed its global totals significantly higher, a pattern that many studios expect to repeat: a modest domestic run can be offset by overseas markets where period drama or local star power resonate. That calculus influences marketing spend and distribution windows for future titles.
China’s blockbuster output around New Year—totaling roughly $644.6M across five films—reinforces the country’s outsized role in global grosses. For Hollywood and international distributors, timing releases to avoid domestic competition in China, or to align with local holidays, has become a core part of release strategy and revenue forecasting.
Faith‑based sequels like I Can Only Imagine 2 show the enduring value of loyal niche audiences. Even with a post‑Covid softening of the broader faith audience, a focused geographic rollout (South, South Central, Midwest) and strong word‑of‑mouth can yield solid multiples versus modest marketing spends. Conversely, films with poor audience sentiment—Psycho Killer, for example—demonstrate how negative viewer scores rapidly curtail box office potential despite wide play.
Comparison & Data
| Title (Distributor) | Theaters | Fri | 3‑day Est | Running Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOAT (Sony) | 3,863 | $3.86M | $15.7M | $57M |
| Wuthering Heights (WB/MRC) | 3,682 | $4.6M | $14.7M | $60.5M |
| I Can Only Imagine 2 (Lionsgate) | 3,105 | $3.75M | $8M+ | Wk 1 |
| Crime 101 (Amazon MGM) | 3,161 | $1.5M | $5.4M | $24.3M |
| EPiC: Elvis (NEON) | 325 | $1.4M | $2.5M–$3M | Wk 1 |
The table above aggregates industry estimates and studio‑reported daily grosses to show relative scale across the top titles. Weekend percentage drops (many in the 40–60% range) reflect the lack of a single dominant tentpole; comparing theater counts to per‑location averages helps explain why some smaller releases can still post noteworthy grosses in concentrated markets.
Reactions & Quotes
“Sony is calling GOAT in the low‑teens this weekend.”
Sony Pictures (studio estimate)
Studio floor estimates circulated this weekend emphasized a conservative range for GOAT as exhibitors recalibrated weekend expectations.
“About 16% of K‑12 schools remain on winter break today, which affects weekday matinee attendance.”
Comscore (research)
Comscore data on school schedules was cited by industry trackers as a factor in midweek and weekend turnout, particularly for family titles relying on matinees.
“Maoyan reporting: top five New Year releases in China have totaled $644.6M since Tuesday.”
Maoyan (China box office tracker)
Market observers point to the strong Chinese New Year window as a reminder that international grosses can reshape a film’s overall performance profile.
Unconfirmed
- Final weekend totals for GOAT and Wuthering Heights remain estimates until studios and Box Office Mojo reconcile Monday numbers.
- Projections that Wuthering Heights will finish as the top‑grossing MPA title worldwide this frame are industry forecasts and depend on full weekend reporting from 77 markets.
- Longer‑term multipliers for I Can Only Imagine 2 are tentative until post‑weekend audience polling and regional hold data settle.
Bottom Line
This slow Presidents Day weekend highlighted how, absent a single blockbuster, box office leadership becomes a function of audience segmentation, regional strength and overseas returns. GOAT’s family skew and matinee demand kept it competitive, but Wuthering Heights’ international traction has meaningfully expanded its overall haul.
Looking ahead, March’s pipeline—led by Super Mario Galaxy and a slate of studio offerings—should lift overall grosses above last year’s March pace. For now, studios will watch Monday reconciliations, China performances and early audience metrics to decide marketing and windowing moves for midbudget and prestige titles.
Sources
- Deadline — industry reporting and original box office roundup (primary)
- Box Office Mojo — industry weekend and historical box office data (industry tracker)
- Comscore — audience and market research cited for school break data (research)
- Maoyan — China box office tallies referenced for New Year grosses (China industry tracker)
- CinemaScore — audience polling and CinemaScore grade referenced for I Can Only Imagine 2 (audience research)