Lead: On Feb. 25, 2026, Micron Technology (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) stood out among semiconductor names after strong starts to the year: Micron up about 46% and Sandisk up about 169% year-to-date. Both companies are riding surging demand for memory and flash driven by AI workloads in data centers, which has pushed prices and profit margins higher. Investors face a choice between Micron’s DRAM-heavy exposure and Sandisk’s NAND-focused storage business as both appear positioned for more upside. This report compares the two firms on fundamentals, market drivers, and near-term risks to help investors decide which fits their portfolio objectives.
Key Takeaways
- Market performance: As of Feb. 25, 2026, Micron rose roughly 46% YTD while Sandisk jumped about 169% YTD, reflecting heavy investor appetite for memory equities.
- Revenue mix: Micron derives about 80% of revenue from DRAM, making it especially sensitive to DRAM price moves and HBM adoption in AI servers.
- HBM outlook: Bank of America projects HBM industry revenue to increase ~58% in 2026 to nearly $55 billion, a major tailwind for DRAM suppliers supplying high-bandwidth parts.
- DRAM pricing: Analysts estimate DRAM industry revenue could climb ~51% in 2026, driven by an average selling price increase of ~33%, benefiting DRAM-centric companies like Micron.
- Sandisk’s exposure: Sandisk focuses on NAND flash and SSDs; the AI-driven storage market aimed at hyperscalers is forecast to expand dramatically—estimates show growth from $34 billion in 2024 to ~$283 billion by 2033.
- Earnings expectations: Consensus forecasts cited project Micron’s EPS rising roughly 309% to $33.92 in the current fiscal year, while Sandisk’s bottom line is expected to expand by more than 13x on stronger NAND pricing.
- Valuation and choice: Both names trade at attractive multiples relative to growth expectations, and neither valuation nor fundamentals clearly separate them for every investor type.
Background
The memory sector is cyclical and capital-intensive, with long lead times to add production capacity. Historically, supply-response delays have produced pronounced price swings for both DRAM and NAND. The current cycle is notable because AI workloads—particularly large language models and other transformer architectures—require much larger pools of high-bandwidth memory and fast flash storage in data centers than conventional cloud workloads.
DRAM and NAND serve different technical roles: DRAM provides volatile, low-latency working memory used during compute operations, while NAND flash offers non-volatile storage for large datasets and active model weights. Hyperscalers and cloud providers are shifting server architectures to include more HBM and SSD capacity to feed AI accelerators, amplifying demand across both memory segments simultaneously.
Main Event
Micron’s business is concentrated in DRAM and related products. With roughly 80% of revenue tied to DRAM, the company benefits directly from rising DRAM average selling prices and growing demand for high-bandwidth memory modules used alongside GPUs and custom AI accelerators. Management and industry analysts report production is being reallocated toward HBM and higher-value DRAM products, tightening supply available for consumer devices and contributing to higher ASPs.
Bank of America and other industry trackers estimate a sharp uptick in HBM revenue and DRAM pricing in 2026, which is feeding through to Micron’s revenue and earnings forecasts. Consensus estimates referenced project a roughly 309% increase in Micron’s earnings per share to $33.92 in the current fiscal year, reflecting both higher volumes in AI servers and improved pricing power.
Sandisk’s franchise centers on NAND flash, SSDs, and embedded storage. Hyperscalers are buying more SSD capacity to host large datasets and to supply fast local storage for AI inference and training tasks. That dynamic has pushed NAND prices sharply higher, and industry commentary indicates some suppliers are implementing steep price increases this quarter to match hyperscaler willingness to pay.
Analyst models and market-data providers show Sandisk’s top line could more than double in the current fiscal year, with reported forecasts implying a multiple-fold expansion in net income (estimates referenced suggest bottom-line growth exceeding 13x), driven largely by NAND price gains and favorable enterprise SSD demand.
Analysis & Implications
From a product-exposure perspective, Micron and Sandisk are complementary plays on the same secular trend—AI-driven memory demand—but they carry different risk profiles. Micron’s DRAM concentration means it is highly levered to HBM adoption and DRAM pricing cycles; when DRAM prices rise, Micron’s margins expand quickly, but a reversal would compress results equally fast.
Sandisk’s NAND orientation ties it to long-term storage demand, which may be more durable as datasets grow and edge/enterprise SSD deployments increase. NAND price moves historically lag DRAM, and NAND’s larger installed base across client and enterprise markets can provide revenue diversification relative to a pure DRAM play.
Capital expenditure decisions and capacity allocation will be decisive over the next 12–36 months. Memory suppliers that prioritize higher-margin HBM or advanced 3D NAND nodes can capture outsized returns during tight markets, but doing so sacrifices supply for other segments and can exacerbate shortages for smartphones and PCs, with broader downstream implications for device makers.
Investors should also weigh macro risks: industrial cycles, potential easing of hyperscaler procurement intensity, and the pace of AI infrastructure deployment. If demand moderates or new capacity comes online faster than expected, price and margin upside could trim substantially, favoring investors who prefer the company with the more diversified revenue base and stronger balance sheet.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Micron (DRAM) | Sandisk (NAND) |
|---|---|---|
| YTD stock gain (as of 2026-02-25) | ~46% | ~169% |
| Revenue exposure | ~80% DRAM | NAND, SSDs, embedded storage |
| 2026 industry growth estimates | HBM revenue +58% to ~$55B (Bank of America) | AI storage market: $34B (2024) → ~$283B (2033 estimate) |
| Consensus EPS change (current fiscal year) | ~+309% to $33.92 | Bottom line >13x (analyst estimates) |
These figures summarize the asymmetric exposure each company has to pricing and volume gains. Micron’s numbers show acute sensitivity to DRAM/HBM cycles, while Sandisk’s projections reflect explosive demand for storage but rely on sustained strong NAND pricing and hyperscaler spending.
Reactions & Quotes
Market participants and analysts have expressed the view that supply tightness is central to recent gains:
“HBM and server DRAM demand is overwhelming current capacity, pushing ASPs higher.”
Bank of America (analyst note)
Company- and market-level comments emphasize strategy and customer behavior:
“Hyperscalers are prioritizing SSD capacity to feed AI workloads, supporting NAND pricing across the board.”
Industry analyst (independent research)
Investor sentiment reflects both excitement and caution about sustainability:
“Both Micron and Sandisk are beneficiaries of the AI buildout, but investors should monitor capacity additions and pricing momentum closely.”
Sell-side analyst (research brief)
Unconfirmed
- Reports that Sandisk will “double the price of its 3D NAND flash memory this quarter” have appeared in market commentary; company confirmation was not available in the sources cited and should be treated as unverified.
- The precise duration of the memory shortage is uncertain; industry forecasts referenced suggest supply tightness could persist through 2028, but this depends on capital spending and new capacity timing.
- Some market-data summaries attribute specific EPS and revenue figures to consensus models; variations exist across data providers and revisions are possible as companies report results.
Bottom Line
Micron and Sandisk are both attractive ways to gain exposure to AI-driven memory demand, but they offer different payoff profiles. Micron’s performance is tightly linked to DRAM/HBM pricing and will likely see amplified earnings volatility—favorable when prices rise, vulnerable if pricing eases.
Sandisk appears to capture broader structural storage demand and recent outsized share-price gains, but its future returns depend on sustained NAND pricing and hyperscaler purchasing. For investors prioritizing concentrated DRAM upside tied to HBM, Micron may be the preferred choice; for those seeking NAND/SSD exposure benefiting from long-term dataset growth, Sandisk could be more appropriate.
Risk management matters: consider time horizon, tolerance for cyclicality, and position sizing. Both stocks have compelling narratives backed by measurable sector dynamics, but outcomes will hinge on how long demand outpaces supply and on each company’s execution.
Sources
- The Motley Fool — Market analysis and company overview (media)
- YCharts — Market data and consensus estimates (data provider)
- Micron Technology — Investor relations and company filings (company)
- Western Digital / Sandisk resources — Product and investor information (company)
- Bank of America — Industry research and analyst notes (summary referenced) (financial research)