Xiaomi launches 17 Ultra as soaring memory prices threaten smartphone sales

Xiaomi unveiled its new flagship models, the Xiaomi 17 and 17 Ultra, at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on March 28, 2026. The company kept launch prices broadly unchanged from last year—the 17 starts at 999 euros and the 17 Ultra at 1,499 euros—even as memory-chip prices have jumped sharply. Analysts and market researchers warn that a surge in memory costs, driven by a supply squeeze for data‑center AI demand, could squeeze margins and weaken consumer demand across mid‑range segments. Xiaomi’s growing electric‑vehicle unit, which now contributes about a quarter of group sales, is emerging as an important revenue buffer amid the chip crunch.

Key Takeaways

• Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi 17 and 17 Ultra at MWC Barcelona on March 28, 2026; the 17 starts at 999 euros and the 17 Ultra at 1,499 euros.
• Memory prices have risen between 80% and 90% in the first quarter of 2026, according to Counterpoint Research, driven by supply redirected to data centers for AI workloads.
• Gartner forecast in February that smartphone prices could rise about 13% in 2026 if component cost pressures persist.
• IDC projects the smartphone market could shrink by 12.9% in 2026 as chip shortages and higher prices hit demand.
• Xiaomi remains the world’s third‑largest smartphone maker; its volume is concentrated in mid‑range devices that are more price‑sensitive than premium models.
• Company figures show smartphone revenue fell 3% year‑on‑year in the September quarter, while electric‑vehicle sales jumped nearly 200% and now make up roughly 25% of total sales.

Background

Over the past decade Xiaomi built market share by offering high feature‑price ratios, scaling rapidly through low‑to‑mid‑tier models. That strategy delivered volume growth and helped Xiaomi become the third‑largest smartphone vendor globally, but it also left the company with a smaller premium segment compared with Apple and Samsung. Premium product lines typically allow bigger margins and give manufacturers more flexibility when component costs rise.

The current memory shortage has customers and vendors scrambling. A surge in demand for DRAM and NAND from hyperscale data centers running AI models has tightened supply available to handset makers. Industry trackers signalled large price increases in early 2026, and several manufacturers warned late in 2025 that component inflation could force price adjustments next year. For a company whose revenue mix is skewed toward mid‑range phones, sustained component cost inflation poses particular pressure on margins and sales volume.

Main Event

At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on March 28, 2026, Xiaomi presented the 17 series as its flagship push into the premium tier, emphasizing camera systems, display quality and charging speeds. Despite the premium positioning, Xiaomi’s headline strategy at launch was to maintain retail pricing versus last year’s models: the base Xiaomi 17 at 999 euros and the 17 Ultra at 1,499 euros. The pricing decision appears aimed at competitiveness against Apple and Samsung while protecting market share in key regions.

Behind the scenes, suppliers are reporting large increases in memory chip costs and constrained shipments. Counterpoint Research reported memory prices up 80–90% in Q1 2026, a substantial move for components that are a major cost line in modern smartphones. Manufacturers must weigh absorbing higher bills, thinning margins, or passing costs to consumers—each choice carries market consequences.

Analysts told CNBC that brands with stronger premium shares can better weather component inflation, because higher ASPs (average selling prices) give margin headroom. Xiaomi’s relatively smaller premium footprint means it may have less room to offset margin pressure by shifting revenue mix. At the same time, Xiaomi has been diversifying revenue through consumer electronics and a fast‑growing electric‑vehicle division, which management sees as a stabilizer amid handset volatility.

Analysis & Implications

First, the immediate impact is on gross margins for handset units. With memory costs soaring, OEMs face a choice: raise consumer prices, accept narrower margins, or reduce specs on some models. Xiaomi’s decision to hold launch prices suggests a short‑term focus on market share, but sustained component inflation will force tougher tradeoffs later in 2026.

Second, market structure matters. Premium leaders such as Apple and Samsung have historically used higher ASPs and brand loyalty to absorb or pass through cost increases more easily than vendors reliant on volume mid‑range sales. IDC’s view that Xiaomi lacks a strong premium share underlines why the company may be more exposed to demand drops if prices rise across the mid tier.

Third, broader demand dynamics could amplify the effect. Gartner’s forecast of a potential 13% rise in smartphone prices would reduce purchase frequency and amplify IDC’s predicted 12.9% market contraction in 2026. Lower overall volumes would feed back into supplier negotiations and component availability, potentially prolonging the current squeeze.

Finally, Xiaomi’s EV business changes the revenue picture. Electric‑vehicle sales jumped nearly 200% in the reported quarter and now account for roughly a quarter of group sales, providing a growing revenue stream that can offset handset weakness. However, EV margins, capital intensity and regulatory exposure differ from consumer electronics, so the line is not a simple substitute for handset profitability.

Comparison & Data

The table highlights how component cost moves and market forecasts align: a sharp rise in memory costs coincides with analyst projections of higher retail prices and lower unit demand. These linked data points explain why vendors are revising pricing strategies and why companies with diversified revenue streams are positioned differently to manage cyclical shocks.

Reactions & Quotes

Industry analysts emphasised the structural challenge for Xiaomi: a strong mid‑range portfolio but limited premium buffer means the company cannot as easily pass costs to consumers without hitting volume. The comments reflect concern that price pressure in lower tiers would more directly reduce Xiaomi’s core sales.

“This year will be even worse because Xiaomi does not have a very strong premium share,”

Francisco Jeronimo, IDC (VP, Data & Analytics)

Other analysts suggested Xiaomi may need targeted price rises for lower‑tier models or margin tradeoffs to preserve competitiveness. Market watchers note that decisions this spring will shape inventory, promotions and channel strategy through the rest of 2026.

“Xiaomi will likely have to hike prices for low‑to‑mid‑tier devices if component costs persist,”

Ben Wood, CCS Insight (Chief Analyst)

Xiaomi management had previously warned the industry about potential price rises for 2026, positioning the company to prepare stakeholders for margin impact if supply pressure continues. Public investor commentary framed the company’s EV business as a counterweight to handset cyclicality.

Unconfirmed

• Whether Xiaomi will raise prices across its low‑to‑mid‑tier models in 2026 remains unannounced; analysts expect moves but company guidance is not definitive.
• The exact duration of the memory supply squeeze and when normalised pricing will return are uncertain; forecasts vary by supplier and contract timelines.
• How much Xiaomi’s EV business can sustainably offset smartphone margin erosion over multiple quarters is not fully verifiable from public data.

Bottom Line

Xiaomi’s March 28, 2026 flagship launch at MWC highlights a strategic tension: hold price to protect share or pass on rising costs and risk volume. The firm maintained list prices for the 17 series, but with memory prices up 80–90% in Q1, margins are under pressure and mid‑range demand is vulnerable to any sustained price transmission.

Investors and consumers should watch three signals in coming months: (1) whether Xiaomi adjusts pricing on entry and mid‑tier models, (2) how memory suppliers manage allocation between AI datacenters and handset customers, and (3) whether Xiaomi’s EV business continues to scale as a meaningful hedge against handset cyclicality. Those dynamics will determine whether 2026 becomes a year of painful margin resets or a temporary supply‑side shock.

Sources

• CNBC (news report covering Xiaomi launch and market context)
• Counterpoint Research (market research: memory price tracking)
• Gartner (industry research and forecasts)
• IDC (market analysis and smartphone forecasts)
• CCS Insight (industry analyst commentary)
• Xiaomi Investor Relations (company filings and financials)