Lead: On March 12–13, 2026, the Trump administration announced a temporary removal of sanctions on certain Russian crude at sea, a step Washington said could free additional supply. Despite the waiver, Brent crude remained close to $100 a barrel and U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded near $95–$96, while Asian stock markets fell and U.S. gasoline and diesel prices rose. The Biden-era conflict dynamics in the Middle East and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz continued to keep a premium on oil. Policymakers also signaled coordinated reserve releases even as markets judged the global outlook uncertain.
Key Takeaways
- On Thursday, March 12, Brent crude settled at $100.46 a barrel, a 10.1 percent intraday rise, and WTI closed at $96.40, up 10.5 percent.
- The Treasury announced a temporary waiver for Russian crude at sea; officials said easing restrictions could free hundreds of millions of barrels for delivery.
- Global leaders agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. reserve.
- Brent spiked to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions following strikes involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted, threatening roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil flows and leaving hundreds of tankers stranded.
- Asian equity markets traded lower on Friday after the S&P 500 fell about 1.5 percent on Thursday; the Stoxx 600 declined roughly 0.6 percent.
- U.S. retail gasoline averaged $3.60 a gallon on Thursday (AAA), up 21 percent since the war began; diesel rose to $4.86, a 29 percent increase.
Background
Since military strikes involving the United States and Israel against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, oil markets have reacted sharply to perceived supply risks. Traders pushed Brent toward $120 a barrel at the start of the week as the possibility of prolonged disruption to Gulf exports and tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz intensified risk premia. Over the last several years, India has become a major buyer of discounted Russian crude after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, making any change in access to Russian cargoes consequential for global flows.
Governments have tried to calm markets through coordinated interventions: together, leaders announced releases of 400 million barrels from national strategic petroleum reserves, with the United States contributing 172 million barrels. Washington additionally moved this week to allow certain Russian cargoes that were already at sea to be sold, framing the step as a temporary adjustment to stabilize supplies. Still, the physical constraints on tanker movements and the security risks to vessels have kept buyers and insurers cautious.
Main Event
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced late on Thursday that the U.S. would temporarily lift sanctions on some Russian crude already en route, citing the need to unlock maritime cargoes and ease supply bottlenecks. Administration officials estimated that loosening restrictions on oil sitting at sea could make hundreds of millions of barrels available, though they did not publish a precise tally of immediately releasable volumes. The move followed shortages and logistical snarls that left dozens of tankers unable to transit safely through the Persian Gulf.
Market reaction was muted after an initial surge: Brent finished Thursday at $100.46 a barrel and traded around $100 in Asian sessions on Friday, while WTI was near $95. The spike earlier in the week to nearly $120 had reflected acute fear of longer-term cuts in output; trading has since moderated but remains significantly above pre-conflict levels. Traders cited continued uncertainty about shipping routes and insurer coverage as reasons why additional supply access has not fully calmed prices.
Equities and fuel retail markets felt the aftershocks. The S&P 500 posted its worst single-day performance since the war began, falling about 1.5 percent on Thursday, and major European indices also slipped. On the demand side, U.S. motorists saw the national average price for regular gasoline rise to $3.60 per gallon, while diesel climbed to $4.86, tightening household and transport-sector margins.
Analysis & Implications
The waiver on Russian cargoes addresses a narrow logistical problem—blocked shipments already at sea—but it does not eliminate the broader geopolitical premium in oil prices. Even if hundreds of millions of barrels are ultimately delivered, continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of further escalation between Iran and its adversaries will keep risk premia elevated. Market participants price not just present supply, but the probability of future outages, insurance costs and rerouting expenses.
The coordinated release of strategic reserves is sizable at 400 million barrels, but markets treat that as a temporary backstop rather than a structural increase in production. Reserves can cushion immediate tightness but cannot replace sustained output lost from prolonged conflict or sanctions-related trade shifts. Policymakers face a trade-off: large releases can blunt near-term spikes yet may weaken deterrence by reducing the economic pressure on producing countries to restore normal flows.
For consumers and inflation, the current price band near $100 per barrel implies continued upward pressure on transport and commodity-linked prices, complicating central bank efforts to balance inflation control with growth support. Higher diesel in particular feeds into logistics and goods prices. For importers like India, access to discounted Russian cargoes matters for refining margins and energy security; the waiver may ease some short-term strain but could invite political scrutiny from Western partners.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Recent Level | Change Since Key Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $100.46 (settled Thu) | Up 10.1% on Thu; peaked near $120 (Mon) |
| WTI crude | $96.40 (settled Thu) | Up 10.5% on Thu |
| U.S. regular gasoline (national avg) | $3.60/gal (Thu, AAA) | Up 21% since war began |
| Diesel (U.S. avg) | $4.86/gal (Thu) | Up 29% since war began |
| Strategic reserve release | 400 million barrels total | U.S. share: 172 million barrels |
The table shows the concentrated drivers of recent market moves: immediate price jumps, retail fuel pass-throughs, and policy responses. While reserve releases are large in absolute terms, they are drawn down over time and do not change production capacity, which is why traders continued to price in medium-term risk.
Reactions & Quotes
Officials and industry groups offered measured responses that underscored market fragility and logistical complexity.
‘The temporary waiver is intended to free supplies already at sea and ease short-term market strain.’
Treasury Department / Scott Bessent (official statement)
Context: The Treasury framed the step as a narrowly targeted measure to address cargoes that were delayed or at risk of being stranded, not as a permanent policy change.
‘Gas prices do not move in lock step with crude, typically lagging by a few days as refinery and distribution margins adjust.’
AAA (motor club, fuel data)
Context: AAA provided data showing gasoline averages rising to $3.60 and noted the lag between crude price moves and pump prices, which helps explain recent patterns in retail fuel costs.
Unconfirmed
- The precise volume of Russian crude that will become available immediately under the temporary waiver remains unclear; official estimates vary and have not been fully itemized.
- It is not yet confirmed whether all cargoes identified for sale will reach intended buyers without additional insurance or security obstacles.
- The duration of the waiver and the legal mechanism for reimposing restrictions were not fully specified in public remarks.
Bottom Line
The U.S. decision to lift sanctions on certain Russian crude at sea is a targeted effort to relieve immediate supply frictions, but it has not erased a sizable geopolitical risk premium in oil markets. Brent and WTI remain substantially elevated compared with pre-conflict levels, reflecting both physical constraints in tanker routes and persistent fears of further escalation in the Middle East.
Watch for three developments that will determine near-term price direction: the actual volume and timing of released Russian cargoes, insurer and shipping responses in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether further coordinated reserve releases or diplomatic de-escalation materially change market risk perceptions. For consumers, elevated gasoline and diesel prices are likely to persist until shipping lanes and output expectations stabilize.
Sources
- The New York Times (news report)
- AAA (industry data, U.S. fuel averages)
- U.S. Treasury Department (official statement/homepage)