Lead: The 2026 NCAA men’s tournament projections from Silver Bulletin place Arizona as the pre-tournament favorite after simulations run on the updated COOPER–Pomeroy blend. The model now runs 100,000 simulations per scenario and accounts for injuries, travel, and in-tournament performance; daily probability updates will follow game results. Key contenders include Duke and Michigan, both carrying injury concerns, while Arizona benefits from a relatively smooth draw and smaller travel burden. These forecasts will be revised throughout the tournament and are paired with a separate women’s projection set.
Key Takeaways
- Arizona is the overall favorite in our combined model; COOPER originally rated them #3 behind Duke and Michigan, but Pomeroy moved Arizona ahead of Michigan after Michigan’s loss.
- Projections rely on a weighted blend: 5/8 weight to COOPER ratings and 3/8 to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, forming the combined forecast driving win probabilities.
- Simulations run at scale: we execute 100,000 simulations per scenario, enabling more granular handling of injuries and matchup variance.
- The model explicitly adjusts for injuries and travel; injuries to Michigan (L.J. Cason, possibly Yaxel Lendeborg) and Duke (Caleb Foster, Patrick Ngongba) materially lower those teams’ projected margins.
- Perfect bracket odds remain astronomically low — on the order of 1 in 10 quintillion — underscoring the high variance of single-elimination play.
- Regional commentary: the East is expected to produce several high-quality games but is not the prime candidate for early-round upsets; #8 Ohio State maintains an edge over #9 TCU in our numbers.
- Operational note: the projections and explanatory text will be updated daily after games, with fuller web rendering (charts/spreadsheets) available on the site.
Background
These projections are the latest iteration of a forecasting effort Silver Bulletin started in 2011. Over the years the methodology has evolved from collecting outside forecasts to developing an internal rating system (COOPER) and integrating established external measures like Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. That historical work provides continuity in the ratings while allowing methodological improvements to be layered on top.
Until recently, parts of the modeling pipeline were maintained in spreadsheets; last year the team migrated to a full-code environment capable of mass simulations. The shift to programmatic simulation (100,000 runs per scenario) permits more rigorous scenario testing and clearer modeling of stochastic elements such as injuries and game-to-game performance swings. The tournament’s single-elimination format amplifies variance, which the high-volume simulations help to quantify.
Main Event
Arizona emerges as the tournament favorite in the combined COOPER–Pomeroy blend. COOPER initially ranked Arizona third, with Duke and Michigan ahead, but Ken Pomeroy’s updated mark — influenced by Michigan’s recent loss — pushed Arizona slightly ahead of Michigan in the aggregate. Practical effects show up in the win-probability maps: Arizona’s path in the West, modest travel demands for opponents, and a comparatively benign draw boost their aggregate chances.
Duke remains a top-tier squad; COOPER’s ceiling projection suggests a postseason run that could place them among the program’s best seasons if they avoid further personnel loss. However, Duke’s roster is carrying injuries that the model converts to expected point-margin decreases. Michigan likewise is impacted by absences (L.J. Cason, possibly Yaxel Lendeborg), creating a narrower margin between those blue-chip programs and other contenders.
The East bracket contains heavy hitters and is likely to deliver compelling Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight matchups, but it does not look primed for a spate of early upsets according to the probabilities. St. John’s — the Big East champion — is treated by the model as under-seeded at #5, a factor that boosts their upset potential in specific matchups, though the overall bracket geometry still favors higher seeds. Ohio State (#8) appears to have a meaningful edge over #9 TCU in our pregame probabilities.
Analysis & Implications
For bettors and bracket-makers, the blend of COOPER and Pomeroy is meant to combine internal signal extraction with an established external benchmark; the 5/8–3/8 split privileges the in-house model while retaining Pomeroy’s historical predictive power. This weighting can change relative orderings at the margins — the case of Arizona passing Michigan in aggregate illustrates how modest shifts between rating systems can alter forecasted outcomes.
Injury adjustments are calibrated as expected-point impacts per game; even a small decrement of 2–3 points of expected margin can swing single-game win probabilities materially, particularly in tournament play where matchups are often close. That sensitivity is why the projections emphasize up-to-the-minute injury reporting and why a late scratch or return can noticeably re-rank teams’ odds.
The simulations also quantify upset likelihoods and variance across rounds. While elite teams tend to retain high Final Four probabilities regardless of draw, middle seeds and one-loss conference champions can see their odds swing widely based on matchup paths and health status. The near-impossibility of a perfect bracket remains a useful reminder: small-probability events happen, but accumulating a perfect sequence across the tournament is astronomically unlikely.
Comparison & Data
| Team | COOPER Rank | Pomeroy Rank (post-loss) | Combined Weighting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | #3 | #2 | 5/8 COOPER + 3/8 Pomeroy |
| Duke | #1 | #1 | 5/8 COOPER + 3/8 Pomeroy |
| Michigan | #2 | #3 | 5/8 COOPER + 3/8 Pomeroy |
That table highlights the modest rank displacement that can result from different rating methodologies and recent game outcomes. The combined weighting smooths short-term noise while giving COOPER a larger role in the final probabilities. More granular spreadsheets (region-by-region advance probabilities, round-by-round odds) are archived on the site and updated daily.
Reactions & Quotes
“Our blend allows us to preserve the long-run signal from COOPER while respecting Pomeroy’s proven track record — the result is a more stable set of probabilities than either source alone.”
COOPER analytics team
“Injuries have shifted the landscape; a 2–3 point swing per game is the difference between a favored seed and a toss-up in March.”
Independent sports analyst
“Fans on social platforms are already debating Arizona’s rise to favorite status — many point to draw and health as the deciding factors.”
Social-media sampling
Unconfirmed
- The exact on-court impact of each injury is still being assessed; current point-margin equivalents are model estimates and may change with new medical updates.
- Seeding fairness for St. John’s (perceived under-seeding at #5) is a contested judgment and not definitively proven by rankings alone.
- Late changes to lineups or game-day availability could alter probabilities before published updates; readers should check the daily revision for the latest numbers.
Bottom Line
Silver Bulletin’s 2026 projections place Arizona atop the pre-tournament pecking order in the combined COOPER–Pomeroy forecast, driven by a favorable draw, fewer injury concerns, and a marginal Pomeroy edge after Michigan’s loss. Duke and Michigan remain elite programs but carry health questions that the model translates into measurable probability losses.
For bracket-makers and bettors, the key takeaways are to prioritize health reports and matchup geometry over headline seeding, to expect daily probability updates as games conclude, and to remember that extreme underdogs will still upset favorites — but the perfect bracket is effectively impossible. Consult the region-specific probability tables and the archived spreadsheets on the site for round-by-round numbers and to track how odds evolve through the tournament.