JD Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll as Leading GOP Pick at 2026 Gathering
Lead: At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held in Grapevine, Texas, a straw poll released on March 28, 2026, showed Ohio Senator and Vice‑President JD Vance leading as the preferred Republican presidential candidate. About 53% of the more than 1,600 attendees who voted picked Vance, with Florida Senator Marco Rubio finishing second at 35%. The poll, organized by the American Conservative Union during the conference, is a snapshot of activist sentiment rather than a definitive predictor of the party’s eventual nominee. Still, the results highlight where a sizable segment of the conservative movement is aligning amid ongoing internal divisions.
Key Takeaways
- JD Vance received approximately 53% support in the CPAC straw poll held during the Grapevine, Texas conference, according to reporting on March 28, 2026.
- Marco Rubio finished second with about 35% of votes from the roughly 1,600 attendees who participated.
- No other candidate exceeded 2% in this year’s straw poll, signaling a two‑person consolidation among CPAC voters.
- CPAC is hosted by the American Conservative Union (ACU); its straw poll reflects activist opinion, not a formal primary or nominating result.
- Comparatively, Vance led last year’s CPAC poll in Maryland with 61%, while Steve Bannon and Ron DeSantis polled at 12% and 7%, respectively.
- Reporting indicates ongoing fractures within the MAGA‑aligned movement tied to internal controversies and foreign policy disagreements.
- Polling at activist events can shift quickly; a Politico survey referenced alongside the CPAC results suggests many of Vance’s supporters continue to express loyalty to Donald Trump.
Background
The Conservative Political Action Conference is an annual meeting that draws conservative activists, elected officials, policy advocates and media figures. Hosted by the American Conservative Union, CPAC functions as a barometer for grassroots priorities and messaging within the right‑of‑center ecosystem. The 2026 conference took place in Grapevine, Texas, where organizers conducted a widely reported straw poll among attendees, a long‑standing CPAC tradition that dates back decades.
Straw polls at CPAC have often produced headline‑grabbing results, but political analysts caution they are limited in scope: respondents are self‑selecting activists rather than a representative sample of Republican primary voters. Still, shifts in CPAC preferences can foreshadow changes in elite and activist energy, fundraising focus and campaign messaging. In recent months the conservative movement has seen tensions over the release of high‑profile investigative material and foreign policy decisions, factors that have complicated intra‑party alliances.
Main Event
The ACU released this year’s straw poll results on March 28, 2026, after ballots were tallied from CPAC attendees. Of the more than 1,600 voters recorded, roughly 53% named JD Vance as their preferred Republican presidential contender this year; Marco Rubio drew about 35%. Organizers noted that no other prospective candidate captured more than 2% of the vote, an outcome that underscores the narrowing field among the conference electorate.
At the venue in Grapevine, participants said the poll reflected close attention to issues such as national security and conservative governance priorities. Rubio’s rise in this straw poll — from about 3% at last year’s CPAC in Maryland to 35% this year — is attributed by observers to his prominent role on foreign policy matters and outreach to conservative international partners. Vance, who led last year’s CPAC tally at 61%, retained a plurality though his share declined compared with 2025.
Conference programming and hallway conversations showed a blend of enthusiasm and debate. Some attendees framed the results as an endorsement of candidates they consider disciplined conservatives; others emphasized that the straw poll mainly measures activist intensity rather than the wider Republican electorate. Conference organizers reiterated that the ACU straw poll is ceremonial and informative for strategists and media, not a nomination mechanism.
Analysis & Implications
The CPAC straw poll outcome signals a consolidation of activist support around two figures within the movement, which could influence fundraising flows and early endorsements. For campaigns, outperforming rivals at CPAC can generate momentum among grassroots donors and activist networks that are active in early primary states. However, the divergence between activist opinion and broader primary electorates means campaigns must translate CPAC energy into measurable support beyond the convention circuit.
Rubio’s surge at CPAC appears linked to his visibility on foreign policy and recent engagement with international conservative figures, which has resonated with activists prioritizing security and global alignment. For Vance, the drop from 61% to roughly 53% year‑over‑year suggests a tightening contest among committed conservatives even as he remains the leading choice at the conference. That dynamic could prompt both campaigns to recalibrate messaging to solidify support and expand appeal.
Longer term, intra‑movement rifts noted by journalists and analysts — tied to investigatory revelations and differing views on U.S. engagement abroad — may blunt the predictive power of activist polls. If the conservative coalition remains fragmented, the primary season could open opportunities for candidates who can bridge wings of the party or consolidate a committed voting bloc in early state contests.
Comparison & Data
| Candidate | CPAC (Maryland, prior year) | CPAC (Grapevine, 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 61% | 53% |
| Marco Rubio | 3% | 35% |
| Steve Bannon | 12% | <2% |
| Ron DeSantis | 7% | <2% |
The table compares headline CPAC straw poll shares for leading figures from the previous CPAC and the 2026 Grapevine poll. While Vance remains the plurality favorite among CPAC voters, Rubio’s jump is the most striking year‑over‑year movement. The small sample and activist composition of CPAC voters mean these shifts should be read as changes in activist sentiment rather than forecasts of primary outcomes.
Reactions & Quotes
ACU officials and some conference participants framed the straw poll as a reflection of activist priorities, not a binding test. Organizers highlighted the poll’s tradition and its role in gauging momentum among attendees, while reminding reporters that broader voter samples tell a different story.
“This straw poll captures the views of activists gathered here and is a useful snapshot of current momentum,”
American Conservative Union (organizer)
Commentators outside CPAC interpreted the results as evidence of consolidation among conservative activists, though analysts cautioned about overreading the data. Political commentators pointed to the poll as useful for understanding donor and activist trends rather than predicting the nominee.
“The results point to activist consolidation behind a narrow set of candidates, but wider electoral dynamics remain unresolved,”
Political analyst (media commentary)
Some CPAC attendees expressed enthusiasm for the leading contenders while others emphasized unresolved tensions within the movement. Reporters at the conference noted ongoing debates tied to recent controversies and foreign policy choices that have affected alliances within the right‑wing coalition.
“Conference conversations show both enthusiasm and disagreement — the poll is a momentary measure, not the last word,”
CPAC attendee (participant observation)
Unconfirmed
- Claims that the CPAC straw poll reliably predicts the eventual Republican nominee remain unsupported; historical correlation is inconsistent.
- Reports that certain lawmakers resigned from office specifically because of the Epstein material or Middle East policy are noted in coverage but require independent confirmation of motives and timing.
- Polling that ties all of Vance’s supporters uniformly to loyalty for Donald Trump is based on sampled surveys and may not reflect the full diversity of motivations among respondents.
Bottom Line
The Grapevine CPAC straw poll places JD Vance as the leading Republican choice among attendees, with Marco Rubio making a notable advance. While the ACU poll highlights activist sentiment and could influence early campaign dynamics, its narrow, self‑selected sample limits its predictive power for a national primary outcome.
For candidates and strategists, the poll’s practical value lies in signaling where committed activists are directing attention and resources. Observers should watch whether this activist consolidation translates into tangible gains in early states, fundraising, and endorsements as the primary calendar unfolds.