— Wall Street opened higher Monday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. is in “serious” talks to end its military operation in Iran, a development that briefly eased investor fears and pushed the Dow roughly 400 points higher during the session. The gains came even as Trump warned that, absent a quick agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. could strike Iranian energy infrastructure. Oil and metal prices climbed on renewed supply concerns while stocks sensitive to energy and industrial supply chains showed outsized moves.
Key takeaways
- The Dow rose roughly 400–415 points (about 0.9%) during Monday trading; session snapshots showed the index up 406 and later 415 points in live updates.
- The S&P 500 advanced about 0.5–0.8% and the Nasdaq gained roughly 0.3–0.7% across session reports, as investors parsed geopolitical headlines.
- Brent crude traded above $112–$115 a barrel and U.S. WTI near $101–$102 a barrel, with Brent up more than 55% in March to date.
- Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of $296.18 million for the most recent week, snapping a string of inflows even as bitcoin hovered around $67,800.
- Major equities moved on both macro and event drivers: Nvidia remained more than 21% below its Oct. 29 intraday peak; Alcoa and other metals names jumped after Middle East strikes.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policy is currently “in a good place” to wait and assess the economic impact of higher energy prices, signaling no immediate shift in guidance.
- Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply lower as the conflict entered its fifth week, with South Korea’s Kospi among the worst performers.
Background
The Middle East conflict that has roiled markets for weeks entered a new phase as U.S. officials and the White House reported ongoing negotiations aimed at ending U.S. military operations in Iran. That escalation has produced persistent upward pressure on energy and commodity prices and has prompted investors to re-evaluate risk premia across equities, fixed income and commodities. Financial markets had already been sensitive to the conflict because higher oil costs can transmit to headline inflation and complicate central bank policy decisions.
U.S. equities were coming off a difficult stretch: the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 had each posted multi-week declines, with the major indexes showing correction-level moves at various points. Corporate news flowed alongside geopolitical developments — from large M&A deals to company-specific supply disruptions — amplifying intraday volatility. Policymakers including Federal Reserve officials and market strategists warned investors to weigh transitory supply shocks against longer-term growth and policy trade-offs.
Main event
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States is in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” and signaled progress toward ending military operations in Iran. At the same time he inserted a stern warning: if a deal is not concluded quickly and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the U.S. could target Iranian electric generation and oil infrastructure. Markets reacted to the combination of diplomatic momentum and the renewed threat of disruptive military action.
Traders pushed the Dow higher on the prospect of de-escalation and a potential easing of near-term energy risk, but oil and metals rose as well because of lingering uncertainty about supply. Brent crude moved above the $112–$115 range in Asian and European trade, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $101–$102 per barrel, reflecting both direct supply concerns and premiums for geopolitical risk.
Sector action was mixed: defense-linked and commodity-exposed firms rallied, while high-growth names that have led prior market rebounds showed more muted gains or continued weakness. Nvidia, for example, remained in bear-market territory relative to its October highs, while Alcoa and other aluminum producers jumped on supply disruption concerns tied to strikes in the Middle East.
Analysis & implications
Markets are balancing two competing narratives: the possibility that diplomatic progress will reduce the risk premium on energy and a countervailing risk that threats of targeting energy infrastructure could further tighten global supply. If talks produce a credible path to reduced hostilities, energy-driven inflation pressures could moderate, giving central banks more flexibility. Conversely, any strike on production or export hubs would likely push crude and refined-product prices materially higher, increasing headline inflation and shortening the window for policy accommodation.
Fed policy calculus is especially delicate. Chair Jerome Powell told an audience at Harvard that the Fed’s stance is “in a good place” to wait and see how the oil shock evolves, noting that prematurely tightening could hurt the economy if the energy shock is short-lived. Still, strategists warn that persistent energy-driven inflation would reduce policymakers’ ability to stimulate without feeding price pressures.
On fiscal and external accounts, higher energy prices and potential trade disruptions can widen deficits and tilt current-account balances, particularly for energy-importing economies. Mohamed El-Erian highlighted that the U.S. is running a large deficit and that prolonged conflict would erode policy offsets; real-term effects such as physical shortages in Asia would ripple into global supply chains and consumer prices.
Comparison & data
| Market | Reported move (session) |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +406 to +415 points (~0.9%) |
| S&P 500 | +0.5% to +0.8% |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.3% to +0.7% |
| Brent crude | $112–$115 per barrel (up ~55% in March) |
| WTI crude | ~$101–$102 per barrel |
| Bitcoin ETFs net flows | -$296.18 million (week) |
The table summarizes live-session snapshots and recent weekly flows. Live-update coverage produced slightly different point estimates at different times during the trading day; the ranges above reflect those time-stamped reports. The oil-price jump in March is historically large and is a primary driver of market and central-bank attention.
Reactions & quotes
“The United States of America is in serious discussions… Great progress has been made,”
President Donald Trump (Truth Social post)
Trump’s post combined an announcement of talks with a conditional threat against Iranian energy infrastructure if a deal is not clinched quickly. Markets treated the two messages as both hopeful and risk-bearing.
“We’re facing events in the Middle East which will certainly affect gas prices, and we feel like our policy’s in a good place for us to wait and see,”
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair (remarks at Harvard)
Powell emphasized the Fed’s preference to look through a supply shock rather than pre-emptively tighten policy in reaction to temporary oil-price spikes.
“We still have this mindset that this is transitory… The market hasn’t quite realized that if this goes on, the policy offsets much less than what we’ve had before,”
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor (on CNBC)
El-Erian warned investors that prolonged conflict would limit monetary and fiscal flexibility and could elevate economic downside risks if energy shortages spread.
Unconfirmed
- President Trump’s claim that Tehran has accepted most of a U.S. 15-point plan and agreed to allow 20 additional oil ships to cross the Strait — independent verification of those concessions was not cited in the live updates.
- Reports that the U.S. intends to “take the oil” or seize Kharg Island reflect statements attributed to the president and sources but the operational feasibility and formal authorization for such moves were not independently confirmed in the public record.
- Company-level details about halted bitcoin purchases were reported from a corporate purchases page; broader institutional motivations and future buying plans were not fully substantiated.
Bottom line
Monday’s trading showed how quickly markets can oscillate when diplomatic signals and military threats arrive together: equities rose on hopes for talks to de-escalate the conflict, yet commodities and defense/adjutant sectors rose on the continued possibility of supply disruption. Traders must price both outcomes, which is why intraday ranges were wide and several indexes registered outsized moves.
For investors and policymakers, the path forward hinges on whether negotiations yield a durable agreement that restores maritime commerce through the Strait of Hormuz and materially reduces energy-risk premia. If talks succeed, inflation and policy pressures could ease; if they fail or if infrastructure is attacked, markets should expect a faster tightening of financial conditions and more pronounced commodity-driven inflation.