Lead: U.S. stock futures opened lower on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran would continue for weeks, rattling markets. S&P 500 futures fell about 1.15%, Nasdaq 100 futures lost roughly 1.5%, and futures tied to the Dow slid about 447 points (near 0.96%). Oil prices jumped sharply, with West Texas Intermediate trading near $106.51 a barrel and Brent at about $107.87. Traders were also watching upcoming U.S. labor data as the shortened Good Friday week ends.
Key takeaways
- S&P 500 futures dropped 1.15% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined about 1.5% on Thursday morning.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid roughly 447 points, equivalent to about a 0.96% move.
- West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 6.38% to $106.51 per barrel; Brent rose 6.3% to $107.87.
- In regular trading the prior day, the S&P 500 rose 0.72%, Nasdaq Composite gained 1.16%, and the Dow added 224.23 points (0.48%).
- President Trump said the Iran war would continue for “two to three weeks” while signalling strikes on Tehran; markets reacted immediately to the comments.
- Asian markets reversed earlier gains: South Korea’s Kospi fell 4.47% to 5,234.05 and Kosdaq dropped 5.36% to 1,056.34.
- Investors face near-term calendar risks: initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 and Friday’s March jobs report.
Background
The U.S.-Iran confrontation escalated into sustained market moves after a series of military and diplomatic exchanges in March 2026. Markets had moved between rallying on hopes for a de-escalation and selling off when fresh threats emerged. The Trump administration has framed a near-term timeline for military operations, and comments from the president in recent days have amplified uncertainty among investors.
Energy markets are especially sensitive: disruptions in or threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would threaten a meaningful portion of global crude seaborne flows. That dynamic has historically driven spikes in Brent and WTI prices and fed through to inflation expectations and risk premia on equities. Large asset managers and multi-asset investors have warned that an extended period of higher energy prices could slow the return of inflation to prior ranges.
Main event
On Wednesday night President Trump delivered an address updating Americans on the conflict with Iran. He said the U.S. was “getting very close” to ending the Iran war but also warned of further strikes on Tehran, saying the country would be hit “extremely hard.” Markets reacted in real time: futures dropped during the speech and crude oil surged on the prospect of prolonged hostilities.
Later the president posted on his social platform that Iran’s president had requested a ceasefire, but said the U.S. would only consider such an offer once the Strait of Hormuz was “open, free, and clear.” That comment, and earlier remarks that U.S. forces would depart in “two or three weeks,” added to market confusion about the immediate outlook for military engagement and geopolitical risk.
Traders noted the knock-on effects across asset classes. Equities saw intraday rotation: on Wednesday regular trading closed with gains across the three main U.S. indexes, but futures fell afterward on renewed geopolitical fear. Oil benchmarks WTI and Brent both jumped more than 6%, reflecting an abrupt re-pricing of supply disruption risk.
Analysis & implications
The immediate market implication is higher risk premia and increased volatility. A sustained spike in crude above $100 per barrel raises input costs for firms and feeds into inflation measures that central banks monitor closely. That combination—higher inflation and slower growth—is particularly challenging for risky assets such as equities, which are sensitive to both earnings and discount-rate shifts.
For the U.S. economy, an oil-led inflation impulse would complicate the Federal Reserve’s path to a stable disinflationary trend. Even if policymakers judge the shock transitory, investors often re-price growth expectations and equity valuations in the near term. Multi-asset strategists warn that a slow normalization back to pre-crisis inflation is more likely than a rapid reversion.
Internationally, the market impact is unequal: energy exporters may see currency and fiscal benefits while importers face higher import bills and potential growth slowdowns. Asian markets reacted strongly on Thursday, with South Korea and Japan posting large declines; regional financial conditions can tighten rapidly if capital reallocates away from equities into perceived safe havens.
Comparison & data
| Instrument | Prior close / level | Move on reaction |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | Flat prior to speech | -1.15% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | Flat prior to speech | -1.5% |
| Dow futures | Flat prior to speech | -447 points (~0.96%) |
| WTI crude | ~$100 | +6.38% to $106.51 |
| Brent crude | ~$101 | +6.3% to $107.87 |
These moves reflect a rapid re-rating: equity futures that had been near flat lost more than 1% while oil climbed to multi-month highs. By comparison, the prior regular session had seen the S&P 500 and Nasdaq end higher by 0.72% and 1.16% respectively, illustrating how quickly market sentiment can swing on geopolitical headlines.
Reactions & quotes
Market strategists emphasized the damage already done to financial conditions and warned of a drawn-out path back to normalcy for inflation and growth expectations.
“We don’t think we stabilize quickly back to normal levels of inflation; it’s a slow-moving macroeconomic chain.”
Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price (CIO, Global Multi-Asset)
Political messaging from the White House framed the operations as nearing a conclusion while maintaining pressure on Tehran; that dual signal heightened market uncertainty and prompted investor repositioning into energy and safe-haven assets.
“Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.”
President Donald Trump (excerpt from public address)
Regional equity exchanges reacted sharply in Asia on Thursday morning as investors reassessed exposures following the speech and the spike in oil prices.
Unconfirmed
- The claim that Iran’s president formally requested a ceasefire has been reported by the U.S. president; independent confirmation was not available at the time of publication.
- The timeline that U.S. military forces will depart Iran in “two or three weeks” is a statement by the president and has not been corroborated by an independent official timeline.
Bottom line
Markets reacted negatively after President Trump’s comments that the Iran war would persist for weeks, triggering a sharp rise in oil and a drop in equity futures. The combination of higher energy prices and elevated geopolitical risk adds to tail risks for global growth and inflation in the near term. Investors will watch incoming U.S. labor data and any official statements clarifying operational timelines or diplomatic developments.
Near-term volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets process conflicting signals—signs of an approaching end to operations versus threats of further strikes. Risk managers and policy watchers should prioritize updates on shipping lanes, energy supply flows, and official military timetables to gauge whether recent price moves reflect transient fear or a sustained shift in the macroeconomic backdrop.
Sources
- CNBC — U.S. business news outlet reporting the market moves and presidential remarks.
- T. Rowe Price — Asset manager referenced for strategist comment and firm affiliation.