Lead: Six months before November’s midterm elections, a Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll released on 3 May 2026 finds President Donald Trump’s public disapproval at 62%, the highest level recorded across his two terms. The survey shows acute voter dissatisfaction on economic issues and the administration’s handling of the February war with Iran, with wide majorities saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. The results deepen risks for the Republican congressional majorities and highlight widening gaps with independents and some Republican-leaning voters.
Key Takeaways
- Overall approval stands at 37%, with disapproval at a record 62%—an increase from 39% approval in February and a clear high for his presidency.
- Seventy-six percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living; just 23% approve, the weakest economic rating in his terms.
- Sixty-six percent disapprove of his management of the February war with Iran, compared with 32% approval.
- Partisan divides remain: 85% of self-identified Republicans approve overall, but those who “strongly approve” fell from 53% in February to 45% now; Republican-leaning independents’ approval is at a new low of 56%.
- Among independents overall, approval slipped to 25%; two-thirds of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
- On congressional control, registered voters give Democrats a five-point edge in House preference, up from a two-point edge earlier in the year; that advantage grows to nine points among voters certain to cast ballots.
- Voter enthusiasm differs by party: 73% of Democrats say these midterms are “much more important” than past midterms, versus 52% of Republicans; Democrats also report higher rates of being “absolutely certain” to vote.
- Majorities oppose several specific Trump proposals—ending birthright citizenship, cuts to federal medical research funding, and ending temporary legal status for migrants—and roughly seven in 10 respondents say he is not honest and trustworthy.
Background
The poll, conducted jointly by The Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos, comes at a fraught moment in U.S. politics: six months before the 5 November 2026 midterm elections. Political sentiment has been reshaped this year by a combination of domestic economic pressures—rising fuel costs and broader cost-of-living concerns—and an international escalation after the administration launched a military campaign against Iran in February.
Historically, midterms punish the sitting president’s party when voters rate national conditions poorly; recent polling cycles show that pocketbook issues and perceptions of national direction strongly influence turnout. For the Republican conference, which holds slim majorities in the House and Senate, sustained low approval for the president typically translates into increased vulnerability in competitive districts and states.
Main Event
The newly released poll places Trump’s overall approval at 37%, little changed from 39% in February, while disapproval climbed to 62%—the highest reading of his presidency. On the administration’s handling of the February war with Iran, 66% of respondents disapproved versus 32% who approved. The war has also been tied in the survey to economic fallout, including an oil shock that pushed gasoline prices to a four-year high.
Economic measures were particularly damaging. When asked about the cost of living, 76% disapproved of the president’s performance and 23% approved, marking his worst score on that issue. Voters also registered broad disapproval on other economic items measured in the poll, amplifying concerns that pocketbook issues are shaping midterm preferences.
Partisan splits are pronounced but shifting: among Republicans, 85% continue to approve of the president overall, but the share who “strongly approve” fell from 53% in February to 45% now. Approval among Republican-leaning independents dropped to 56%, a new low. Independents at large gave him only 25% approval, reflecting slippage outside the party base.
The poll finds Republicans’ narrow House majority and Senate prospects under threat. Registered voters prefer Democratic House candidates by five points, up from a two-point advantage earlier in the year; among voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, Democrats lead by nine points. Reported voter urgency is also asymmetric: 73% of Democrats say this fall’s midterms are much more important than prior midterms, compared to 52% of Republicans.
Analysis & Implications
The combination of declining approval among independents and erosion in the intensity of Republican support amounts to a meaningful political risk for the GOP in November. Even with solid backing from core Republican identifiers, a drop in “strong” approval and weaker standing with independents can translate into seat losses in suburban and swing districts where margins are narrow.
Economic ratings—especially the extreme dissatisfaction on cost-of-living measures—could be decisive. Midterm turnout frequently skews toward voters motivated by immediate economic pain, and the poll’s finding that Democrats are both more energized and more likely to say voting is critical suggests the president’s position could depress Republican prospects where economic concerns are front-of-mind.
The war with Iran adds a geopolitical dimension that complicates message discipline for the administration and congressional Republicans. With 66% disapproving of the handling of that conflict, the president faces criticism that blends foreign-policy and economic grievances: respondents directly tied the conflict to fuel-price spikes and broader economic anxiety.
Looking ahead, the poll implies two pathways for the Trump campaign and GOP leaders: shore up turnout among core supporters—where declared certainty to vote remains high among MAGA-identifying Republicans—or attempt to repair standing with independents by pivoting to policy moves that address immediate economic concerns. Both strategies carry trade-offs: mobilizing the base may narrow appeal to moderate voters, while outreach to independents risks alienating committed supporters.
Comparison & Data
| Issue | Approve | Disapprove |
|---|---|---|
| Overall approval | 37% | 62% |
| Cost of living | 23% | 76% |
| Handling of war with Iran | 32% | 66% |
| Border | 45% | 56% |
| Immigration (general) | 40% | 59% |
The table highlights where ratings are weakest: cost-of-living numbers stand out as the most lopsided, while border policy remains more competitive. These distributions suggest that economic pocketbook issues may be driving the larger negative trend, with foreign-policy responses reinforcing voter dissatisfaction.
Reactions & Quotes
Official statements and public reaction were immediate. The White House framed the poll as a snapshot that does not reflect expected turnout dynamics in November, while Democrats seized on the numbers as evidence of a national shift toward their message on economic and foreign-policy stewardship.
“We respect the results of the poll, but they do not determine election day turnout—our focus remains on delivering results for Americans.”
White House spokesman (official statement)
Policy analysts emphasized the electoral consequences of economic ratings.
“Historically, presidents lose midterm ground when voters rate the economy poorly; the cost-of-living figure here is a red flag for incumbents in marginal districts.”
Senior political analyst, nonpartisan think tank
Grassroots and voter groups interpreted the findings through the lens of turnout motivation.
“High disapproval alongside strong Democratic enthusiasm suggests this could be a mobilizing environment for the opposition in key races.”
Director, voter mobilization organization
Unconfirmed
- Precise casualty counts and detention figures tied to federal deployments in cities are reported in multiple accounts; specific numbers and legal attributions remain under ongoing review by local authorities and independent monitors.
- Attribution of recent fuel-price spikes solely to the February conflict with Iran is contested; global market dynamics and other factors also influence prices and are subject to further economic analysis.
Bottom Line
The May 3 poll places President Trump at a record-high disapproval of 62% while keeping approval near the high-30s—an outcome that signals pronounced public unease with economic conditions and the administration’s foreign-policy choices. For Republican lawmakers, these numbers increase the political stakes in marginal districts and narrow Senate battlegrounds ahead of November.
For voters and campaigns, the clearest takeaway is the salience of pocketbook issues and turnout intensity. If Democratic enthusiasm observed in the poll translates into higher fall turnout, the party could convert the current polling advantages into congressional gains; conversely, high certainty-to-vote rates among MAGA-aligned Republicans could blunt that effect in some races. The coming months will test which dynamic dominates.
Sources
- The Guardian (news report summarizing the poll; media)
- The Washington Post (poll sponsor and reporting; media)
- ABC News (poll partner; media)
- Ipsos (pollster; research organization)