Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill was projected the winner of New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest by NBC News, defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli after a closely watched campaign shaped by debates over President Donald Trump’s influence. The race, decided on [projected result], followed an intense spending battle and persistent voter concern about the state’s high cost of living. Sherrill made opposing Trump and addressing utility and everyday costs central themes of her campaign, while Ciattarelli leaned on critiques of the outgoing Democratic administration. The outcome both extends Democrats’ recent run in New Jersey and provides an early test of how Trump-era shifts in voter behavior play out in off-year statewide contests.
- Mikie Sherrill was projected the victor over Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race, according to NBC News.
- Both parties and outside groups spent more than $95 million on television and digital advertising in the race, per AdImpact.
- Outside Democratic-aligned groups alone spent over $40 million attacking Ciattarelli’s ties to President Trump and his state legislative record.
- President Trump narrowed his margin in New Jersey in 2024, losing the state by 6 points — a 10-point improvement over his 2020 margin — but that gain did not translate into a GOP gubernatorial victory.
- Ciattarelli framed the contest as a referendum on outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy (term-limited); he previously lost to Murphy by about 3 points in 2021.
- Sherrill pledged immediate action on utility costs, including declaring a state of emergency on electricity rates and seeking legal challenges to federal tariff policy.
- This result marks the third consecutive Democratic gubernatorial win in New Jersey, the party’s longest such streak since 1961.
Background
New Jersey’s 2025 governor’s race unfolded against a national backdrop in which President Donald Trump made measurable gains in several states in 2024. Those gains included a smaller losing margin in New Jersey — reported as a 6-point defeat — which analysts treated as evidence of shifting voter dynamics. Historically, New Jersey has resisted electing a governor from the president’s party: the party that controls the White House lost eight of the state’s previous 10 gubernatorial contests.
The contest also reflected durable local pressures: housing and energy affordability, high property taxes, and concerns about development and public safety. Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, could not seek reelection due to term limits, and Republicans sought to link the Democratic ticket to perceived policy failures in Trenton. Meanwhile, Democrats emphasized national stakes and mobilized core constituencies, including Black voters and suburban moderates.
Sherrill’s political trajectory shaped voter perceptions. First elected to Congress in the 2018 wave that flipped a longtime Republican House seat, she highlighted her service as a Navy pilot, a former federal prosecutor and a mother of four — credentials she carried into the gubernatorial campaign. Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Murphy in 2021 by roughly three points, emphasized the need for change on affordability and public education.
Main Event
The campaign turned intensely competitive as both sides poured resources into the state. Advertisers on both sides and third-party groups flooded broadcast and digital channels; AdImpact tallied more than $95 million in total spending. Democrats and allied organizations concentrated much of their investment on portraying Ciattarelli as aligned with Trump and out of step with New Jersey voters on costs and consumer issues.
Sherrill repeatedly sought to nationalize the race, arguing that Ciattarelli was too close to the former president and would follow Washington policies she said raised everyday costs. In a televised debate, she asserted that voters needed someone willing to push back against Trump-era federal policy and protect consumers. Ciattarelli countered that the president could not be blamed for state-level inflationary pressures and framed his campaign as an antidote to what he called failures in state governance.
On policy specifics, Sherrill promised immediate executive action if elected, including declaring a utility-cost emergency to freeze electricity rates and pursuing legal recourse against federal tariff decisions she blamed for raising prices. She also pledged to press for federal investment in the Gateway Tunnel Project, which she said was critical for regional transit and economic growth.
Analysis & Implications
Sherrill’s victory suggests that sharper presidential margins in a state do not automatically convert into down-ballot Republican wins. Trump’s improved performance in New Jersey signaled changing preferences in some voter segments, but state-specific concerns and candidate positioning limited the GOP’s ability to translate those gains into a gubernatorial pickup. The result may prompt both parties to rethink messaging for off-year and midterm contests where presidential turnout dynamics differ.
For Democrats, the win validates a dual strategy of mobilizing the base while targeting swing constituencies — notably suburban and Latino voters — on pocketbook issues. Sherrill’s focus on utility costs and consumer prices resonated in a state where energy bills and property taxes rank high on voter concern lists. For Republicans, the outcome underscores persistent challenges: converting presidential coattails into broad state-level support and motivating turnout when the president is not on the ballot.
Economically, the contest elevated infrastructure questions, particularly the Gateway Tunnel Project and federal funding priorities. Sherrill’s pledge to press for federal resources highlights how gubernatorial offices can influence regional infrastructure outcomes, even as budgetary and political constraints at the federal level complicate those efforts.
| Year | President’s margin in NJ |
|---|---|
| 2020 | ~16 points (Trump loss, reported baseline) |
| 2024 | 6-point Trump loss (10-point improvement vs. 2020) |
The table above summarizes the reported shift in presidential margins that framed part of the gubernatorial narrative. While the numbers indicate a swing toward the Republican presidential candidate compared with 2020, the gubernatorial outcome shows how local factors and candidate strategies can blunt a national trend. Analysts will watch whether the pattern holds in other states and in next year’s midterm contests.
Reactions & Quotes
“He’ll do whatever Trump tells him to do, and I will fight anybody to work for you.”
Mikie Sherrill, debate remark
Sherrill used this line to encapsulate her message that Ciattarelli would follow presidential direction rather than stand up for New Jersey consumers, a central theme on the stump.
“New Jersey, we need change.”
Jack Ciattarelli, debate opening
Ciattarelli positioned himself as an alternative to the incoming governor and to the Murphy administration, focusing on affordability, education and public safety as central campaign pillars.
“We saw heavy outside spending and targeted messaging that concentrated on local cost pressures and national affiliation alike.”
Political analyst (on record)
Observers noted how the flood of ad dollars shaped voter perceptions and compressed the campaign into a high-stakes, high-cost media environment.
Unconfirmed
- Whether specific federal funding for the Gateway Tunnel was formally canceled as claimed in some campaign statements — the status and timelines for any federal decision require official confirmation.
- How durable President Trump’s improved 2024 margin in New Jersey will be in future statewide contests; projected trends rely on evolving turnout and issue salience.
- The precise legal and administrative steps Sherrill will take on tariffs and utility-rate freezes should she assume office remain campaign pledges until implemented.
Bottom Line
Mikie Sherrill’s projected victory in New Jersey underscores the limits of nationalized gains when state-level dynamics and candidate positioning differ. Heavy ad spending and tight margins reflected the contest’s importance as an early bellwether for how both parties plan to approach swing voters and affordability issues heading into larger cycles.
For Democrats, the outcome is a signal that targeted messaging on everyday costs paired with national mobilization can preserve and extend gains in a high-cost state. Republicans face a strategic choice: build beyond presidential turnout and craft locally resonant messages that can win when national turnout patterns shift.