Lead
McDonald’s is due to report third-quarter 2025 results before the market open on Wednesday, November 5. Wall Street surveys compiled by LSEG and StreetAccount point to earnings per share of $3.33 and revenue near $7.1 billion. Analysts expect the chain to post global same-store sales growth of about 3.5%, led by strength outside the U.S., where U.S. same-store sales are forecast at roughly 1.9%. Investors will watch whether the company’s value push and recent menu rollouts translate into sustained traffic and margin resilience.
Key Takeaways
- Consensus EPS estimate: $3.33 per share, based on LSEG-surveyed analysts.
- Consensus revenue estimate: about $7.1 billion for Q3 2025.
- StreetAccount projects global same-store sales growth of roughly 3.5% year-over-year.
- U.S. same-store sales are expected to grow ~1.9%, with international markets projected to outpace the U.S.
- McDonald’s has reintroduced Snack Wraps after nine years and relaunched Extra Value Meals in September, signaling a renewed focus on value.
- Shares have risen about 3% year-to-date; the company holds a market capitalization north of $212 billion.
- Analysts will parse margin trends to see if promotional activity is trading off against profitability.
Background
McDonald’s is frequently viewed as a consumer bellwether because its sales reflect discretionary spending patterns across income groups and regions. Over the past year the company repeatedly flagged a pullback in spending among lower-income diners, prompting investment in value offers and localized promotions to defend traffic. The pandemic-era shift in consumer behavior, supply-chain volatility and inflation have all shaped management’s recent operating priorities.
In prior quarters McDonald’s reported that targeted value programs and menu innovation could help stabilize transactions even as average check and mix evolve. International franchise and company-operated markets vary widely in wage inflation, commodity cost exposure and consumer price sensitivity, making geographic breakdowns central to interpreting a global same-store-sales print. Investors are also watching whether management updates guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Main Event
On Wednesday, November 5, McDonald’s will release Q3 2025 results before the bell, followed by prepared remarks and likely an investor call. Analysts polled by LSEG and StreetAccount consolidated near-term estimates that include EPS of $3.33 and revenue of $7.1 billion. Those consensus figures reflect forecasts that menu-value initiatives and select product returns will keep traffic positive for a second consecutive quarter.
Menu moves this summer and fall — notably the return of Snack Wraps after a nine-year absence and the reintroduction of Extra Value Meals in September — are part of management’s strategy to attract price-sensitive customers. Industry watchers view those actions as tactical responses to the earlier-reported pullback among lower-income diners. The extent to which these promotions lift transactions versus compress margins will be a focal point in the release.
Geographic performance is expected to be bifurcated. StreetAccount estimates show global same-store sales growth of about 3.5%, with international markets outpacing the U.S., which is projected to register around 1.9% same-store growth. Investors will scrutinize regional splits, digital sales penetration, and franchise vs. company-operated trends to gauge sustainability.
Analysis & Implications
First, if McDonald’s posts results in line with or above the LSEG consensus, it would reinforce the view that a disciplined value strategy can restore traffic even amid pockets of consumer weakness. Sustained same-store sales improvements would also bolster confidence that promotions are attracting incremental visits rather than merely shifting timing.
Second, margins are the counterweight to revenue gains. Heavy promotional activity or elevated commodity and labor costs could limit operating-margin upside. Analysts will assess gross- and operating-margin trajectories, as well as any management commentary about commodity hedges, pricing cadence and labor cost pass-throughs.
Third, the geographic split matters for capital allocation and growth outlook. Stronger international outperformance would highlight the benefit of geographic diversification and local menu tailoring, while tepid U.S. results would underscore persistent sensitivity among domestic lower-income cohorts. That divergence can influence investor expectations for share buybacks and dividend pacing.
Finally, investor sentiment appears cautious: McDonald’s stock is up just about 3% year-to-date despite the company’s large market cap of more than $212 billion. A beat could provide catalysts for multiple expansion, while a miss or weak guidance could re-ignite concerns about broader restaurant-sector headwinds and consumer resilience.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | StreetAccount / LSEG Estimate |
|---|---|
| EPS | $3.33 |
| Revenue | $7.1 billion |
| Global same-store sales | +3.5% |
| U.S. same-store sales | +1.9% |
These estimates provide a snapshot of market expectations rather than guarantees. Historical context matters: analysts will compare today’s print not only to the consensus above but to McDonald’s most recent quarterly trends and any management guidance. The table highlights where investors and analysts will focus their attention at the release.
Reactions & Quotes
McDonald’s in its recent communications framed value offers and select product returns as central to restoring customer visits while balancing profitability.
McDonald’s (company statement, paraphrased)
Data providers and sell-side analysts note projections for roughly 3.5% global same-store growth, with international markets driving the outperformance.
LSEG / StreetAccount (data provider, paraphrased)
Market commentary ahead of the report emphasizes cautious investor positioning given mixed industry signals and a modest 3% year-to-date share gain for McDonald’s.
CNBC (news summary, paraphrased)
Unconfirmed
- Whether McDonald’s will provide materially different forward guidance for FY2025 beyond routine commentary remains unconfirmed until management’s release.
- Detailed breakdowns on which international markets are the primary drivers of the projected outperformance are not fully confirmed in advance of regional disclosures.
- The degree to which Snack Wraps and Extra Value Meals are contributing incremental visits versus re-timing existing purchases is not independently verified.
Bottom Line
McDonald’s Q3 2025 report will be read as a test of the company’s ability to combine price-competitive merchandising with margin discipline. Consensus expectations—EPS of $3.33, revenue around $7.1 billion and global same-store sales near +3.5%—reflect cautious optimism that value items and selected product returns can stabilize traffic.
Investors should focus on the quality of the sales gain (traffic versus mix), margin commentary, and geographic detail that explains where growth is concentrated. A beat would support the narrative that McDonald’s value strategy is working; any shortfall or weak guidance could re-open questions about consumer resilience and industry-level pressures.
Sources
- CNBC — news report summarizing estimates and market context (media).
- LSEG / StreetAccount — data provider and survey compiler (financial data/analysis).
- McDonald’s Corporation — investor relations and company statements (official).