Stock futures inch up after AI leaders tumble on valuation worries

Stock futures ticked higher Thursday night after a slide in some of the market’s largest AI-related technology names pushed U.S. equities lower earlier in the session. Dow futures added about 55 points (roughly 0.1%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each rose roughly 0.1%. The pullback followed steep losses in major AI-linked names and new data showing October job-cut announcements reached their highest level for that month in more than two decades, leaving 2025 on track to be the worst year for layoffs since 2009. Investors are watching a packed calendar — including Nvidia’s upcoming results, a stalled government payroll release and the prospect of a December Fed rate cut — for signs the market can stabilize.

Key takeaways

  • Dow futures rose about 55 points, roughly a 0.1% gain in late trading; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures moved up roughly 0.1% each.
  • Major AI and tech names including Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Tesla and Microsoft posted notable declines that pressured the market earlier in the day.
  • October saw the highest number of announced job cuts for that month in more than 20 years; 2025 is now the worst year for layoffs since 2009.
  • The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9% in the prior session and the Dow Industrials closed nearly 400 points lower that day.
  • Week-to-date through Thursday, the S&P 500 is down about 1.8%, the Dow is off roughly 1.4% and the Nasdaq is down about 2.8%.
  • After-hours movers: Take-Two shares fell ~7% after delaying Grand Theft Auto VI to November 2026; Airbnb rose ~5% on stronger-than-expected Q3 results and raised guidance.
  • Market participants are weighing potential upside catalysts: Nvidia earnings in the coming weeks, a possible December Fed cut and the end of the U.S. government shutdown.

Background

The market’s recent advance has been heavily concentrated in a handful of AI-focused technology companies, magnifying moves when those names pause or reverse. Valuation concerns have mounted as gains concentrated in a small number of large-cap stocks have left broader participation thin. That concentration made the market more sensitive to company-specific news and profit-taking ahead of major earnings reports.

At the same time, labor-market developments have added a macroeconomic headwind. Announced job cuts for October reached levels not seen for that month in over 20 years, contributing to a data backdrop that some strategists say increases uncertainty about consumer resilience heading into 2026. The usual Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll release was not published for the second consecutive month because of the government shutdown; economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been penciling in a 60,000-job decline and a 4.5% unemployment rate for October.

Main event

U.S. cash indices closed lower in the prior session amid a broad tech pullback. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.9% while the Dow industrials lost almost 400 points. Market participants singled out weakness in mega-cap AI names — firms that had driven much of the year’s gains — as the immediate trigger for the selloff.

Futures trading softened late Thursday but showed modest gains after the close: Dow futures gained about 55 points (0.1%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each ticked up roughly 0.1%. That after-hours movement suggested some buyers were waiting for fresh earnings signals and the next round of economic data before committing to a larger repositioning.

In after-hours corporate news, Take-Two Interactive shares plunged about 7% after Rockstar Games said Grand Theft Auto VI will be delayed to November 2026 from May 2026, marking a second postponement. Airbnb rallied roughly 5% after reporting Q3 earnings of $2.21 per share on $4.1 billion in revenue, and offering Q4 revenue guidance of $2.66 billion to $2.72 billion. Affirm jumped more than 12% after beating top- and bottom-line expectations, while DraftKings fell nearly 4% following a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and revenue below forecasts.

Analysis & implications

The recent pullback underscores the risks of a market driven by a narrow cast of mega-cap winners. When a handful of names dominate index performance, any sign of valuation stress can produce outsized index moves even if underlying economic fundamentals remain mixed. That dynamic raises the odds of episodic volatility through year end unless leadership broadens beyond a few large-cap tech names.

Layoff data and the missing BLS payroll release complicate the Fed outlook. Higher-than-normal announced job cuts for October feed into concerns about growth and hiring, which in turn affect the timing and sizing of potential rate cuts. Markets have priced some probability of a December Federal Reserve reduction; if layoffs continue to weigh on growth indicators, the case for earlier easing could strengthen, but confirmation will depend on incoming labor and inflation data.

Nvidia’s upcoming earnings are a near-term market pivot. Positive results or guidance that reaffirms the AI demand narrative could help soothe valuation fears and attract buyers back into megacaps. Conversely, any disappointment could deepen the current rotation and push investors to reassess growth expectations for high-multiple stocks.

Comparison & data

Index Week-to-date change Prior session move
S&P 500 -1.8% — (see text)
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.4% Down nearly 400 points
Nasdaq Composite -2.8% -1.9%

The table shows concentrated weekly losses across major benchmarks, with the Nasdaq bearing the largest decline as AI and big-cap technology weakness weighed most heavily. Traders are parsing index breadth and sector rotation metrics to judge whether the pullback is temporary profit-taking or the start of a broader correction.

Reactions & quotes

“A resolution of the government shutdown and a strong Nvidia report could still trigger a year-end rebound,” said Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates, expressing cautious optimism about a potential late‑year rally if key catalysts align.

Louis Navellier, Navellier & Associates

Many market strategists warned that the market’s concentration amplifies downside moves when a few leaders retreat, urging investors to monitor breadth and earnings quality closely.

Market strategists

Economists surveyed before the canceled BLS release had expected a 60,000-job decline in nonfarm payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate for October, a forecast now pending official confirmation once the shutdown ends.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones

Unconfirmed

  • Whether the Supreme Court’s comments about tariff legality will have an immediate, measurable impact on trade policy remains unclear and unconfirmed.
  • The timing and size of any Federal Reserve rate cut in December are speculative and depend on incoming economic and labor-market data.
  • Market hopes for a year-end rally hinge on several contingent events (shutdown resolution, Nvidia results); those outcomes are not guaranteed.

Bottom line

The late‑session modest gains in futures reflect cautious, tentative buying after a broad tech-led decline and unsettling labor-market signals. Market leadership remains narrow, and that concentration heightens the potential for episodic volatility until earnings and macro data provide clearer direction.

Investors should watch Nvidia’s upcoming earnings, the eventual resumption of official payroll reporting after the government shutdown, and any fresh guidance from the Federal Reserve. These developments will be critical in determining whether this pullback is a short-lived correction in a still‑bullish cycle or the start of a more sustained reassessment of valuations in AI and related technology stocks.

Sources

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