Lead: Week 11’s college-football slate centers on a high-stakes noon PT matchup as No. 9 Oregon visits No. 20 Iowa at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. OregonLive’s sports staff leans toward the Ducks in that game, with one staffer backing an Iowa upset. The weekend also includes ranked showdowns — No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech and No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri — plus marquee clashes such as No. 2 Indiana at Penn State and No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue. Below we summarize staff picks, lines and the implications for conference races and rankings.
Key Takeaways
- Staff consensus favors Oregon over Iowa at Kinnick: the published line is Ducks by 6½ with an over/under of 42½.
- Top-10 matchup at Jones AT&T Stadium: Texas Tech is a 10½-point favorite over BYU (OU 52½), but two staffers pick BYU to win.
- SEC stake: No. 3 Texas A&M is listed as a 6½-point favorite at No. 22 Missouri (OU 48½); most staffers back the Aggies but one predicts a Missouri upset.
- Season picking records (straight up): Sean Meagher 94-34, Joel Odom 93-35, James Crepea 92-36, Ryan Clarke 89-39, Nick Daschel 87-41, Bill Oram 86-42, Aaron Fentress 66-42.
- Against the spread leaders: Bill Oram 68-59, Ryan Clarke 63-64, Nick Daschel 61-66, Joel Odom 61-66, James Crepea 60-67, Sean Meagher 60-67, Aaron Fentress 54-73.
- Notable national matchups include No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (Hoosiers -14½, OU 50½) and No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (Buckeyes -30½, OU 48½).
Background
The Oregon at Iowa game carries crossover importance: Oregon (No. 9) is fighting to maintain positioning in the CFP conversation, while Iowa (No. 20) can significantly boost its résumé with a home upset at Kinnick Stadium. Kinnick is a historically difficult environment for visitors; Iowa’s defense and crowd noise have factored into several November surprises in recent seasons. The line (Ducks by 6½) reflects respect for Oregon’s offense but also recognition of Iowa’s home-field edge.
BYU vs. Texas Tech is a Big 12 tilt with Top-10 juice. Texas Tech (No. 8) has the home-field designation and is favored by 10½; BYU (No. 7) has been battle-tested and still projects as a live underdog in several staffers’ ballots. The matchup has recruiting and coaching implications for both programs and bears on the conference pecking order ahead of late-season showdowns.
In the SEC, No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri is more than a rivalry game — it shapes divisional clarity. With the Aggies favored by 6½, the majority of staffers expect A&M to prevail, but Missouri’s home-field history and streaky offense make the game vulnerable to an upset. Across these contests, published over/unders range from the low 40s to the mid-50s, underscoring contrasting matchups between offense-heavy and defense-first teams.
Main Event: Staff Picks and Key Matchups
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (12:30 p.m. PT, CBS/Paramount+, Ducks -6½, OU 42½): The staff majority picked Oregon. Individual score predictions included Oregon 27–20 (Ryan Clarke), Oregon 17–13 (James Crepea), Iowa 23–20 (Nick Daschel — the lone Iowa pick), Oregon 27–16 (Aaron Fentress), Oregon 33–21 (Sean Meagher), Oregon 29–20 (Joel Odom) and Oregon 27–25 (Bill Oram). Overall, six of seven staffers project Oregon wins, with margins ranging from one to 13 points.
Sam Houston State at Oregon State (7:00 p.m. PT, The CW, Beavers -20½, OU 52½): Oregon State is heavily favored. Staff scorelines were lopsided in favor of the Beavers: examples include 48–13 (Ryan Clarke), 35–10 (James Crepea), 41–20 (Nick Daschel) and 38–14 (Sean Meagher). The predictions reflect Oregon State’s advantage in depth and Sam Houston State’s continued search for a first win.
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (9:00 a.m. PT, ABC, Red Raiders -10½, OU 52½): Most staffers side with Texas Tech by modest-to-decent margins — sample calls include 38–28 (Ryan Clarke), 35–21 (James Crepea), 30–24 (Nick Daschel) and 42–33 (Aaron Fentress). Two staffers break with the favorite: Joel Odom and Bill Oram both pick BYU (31–28 and 35–32, respectively), signaling belief in BYU’s ability to control tempo and limit Tech’s explosive plays.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (12:30 p.m. PT, ABC, Aggies -6½, OU 48½): The majority favor Texas A&M, with a cluster of predicted results such as 30–20 (Ryan Clarke), 35–28 (James Crepea), 30–27 (Nick Daschel) and 42–23 (Aaron Fentress). Bill Oram is the outlier, projecting a Missouri upset (Missouri 31, A&M 26). The split highlights confidence in A&M’s offense but recognition that Missouri can win at home.
Analysis & Implications
The aggregate staff view carries immediate implications for rankings and seeding discussions. If Oregon wins at Iowa as most predict, the Ducks’ resume will remain intact ahead of final-season marquee matchups, keeping their CFP hopes alive. Conversely, an Iowa upset would boost the Hawkeyes into stronger bowl consideration and damage Oregon’s standing in national conversations.
BYU–Texas Tech is a potential Big 12 tiebreaker pivot depending on each team’s remaining schedule. A Texas Tech victory would reinforce the Red Raiders’ standing in conference power charts; a BYU win on the road would reshape late-season perceptions of which teams can compete for league supremacy.
Texas A&M’s result at Missouri matters for the SEC ladder: a win by the Aggies preserves control of their path toward the conference’s higher seeds, while a Missouri victory could create ripple effects for divisional races. Betting lines in several games indicate market confidence in favorites, but staff variance — especially lone upsets — underlines the unpredictability of November football.
Comparison & Data
| Staffer | Straight-up Record | Last Week SU | ATS Record | Last Week ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Meagher | 94-34 | 11-3 | 60-67 | 7-7 |
| Joel Odom | 93-35 | 11-3 | 61-66 | 5-9 |
| James Crepea | 92-36 | 11-3 | 60-67 | 7-7 |
| Ryan Clarke | 89-39 | 8-6 | 63-64 | 5-9 |
| Nick Daschel | 87-41 | 10-4 | 61-66 | 4-10 |
| Bill Oram | 86-42 | 7-7 | 68-59 | 6-8 |
| Aaron Fentress | 66-42 | 10-4 | 54-73 | 6-8 |
Context: staff SU records show tight clustering at the top, while ATS records reveal variance in spread-based success. These numbers help readers judge the relative reliability of each staffer’s predictions.
Reactions & Quotes
Staff score predictions serve as concise expressions of rationale; below are representative short-form picks with attribution (these are the exact numerical predictions provided by staffers).
“Oregon 33, Iowa 21”
Sean Meagher (staff pick)
Meagher’s projection is one of the more bullish takes on the Ducks and reflects confidence in Oregon’s ability to generate enough offense to overcome Iowa in Iowa City.
“Iowa 23, Oregon 20”
Nick Daschel (staff pick)
Daschel is the lone staffer predicting an Iowa victory in the marquee noon PT game; that call is consistent with a belief in Iowa’s home defense and a closer-than-expected contest.
“BYU 31, Texas Tech 28”
Joel Odom (staff pick)
Joel Odom’s BYU pick is one of the two staff predictions that favor the Cougars in Lubbock, arguing for an upset based on BYU’s ball-control and situational play.
Unconfirmed
- Late-breaking injury updates for participating teams that could materially affect starting lineups or game scripts remain possible and were not reflected in staff picks published before kickoff.
- Betting lines and over/under figures are subject to change in the hours before kickoff; the line values cited are those published with the picks.
Bottom Line
This Week 11 card blends national title implications (for top-ranked squads) with regional and conference stakes across the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. Most staffers expect Oregon to survive at Iowa and project Texas Tech and Texas A&M to hold as favorites in their high-profile matchups, but named dissents underscore the volatility of November football.
Readers should treat these predictions as time-stamped guidance: monitor injury reports, weather and late line movement ahead of kickoff. Upsets remain plausible — and in some games, a single turnover or special-teams play could flip the expected outcomes and reshape late-season positioning.