Lead: Dan Trachtenberg’s Predator: Badlands opened the first weekend of November with a powerful debut, topping Friday with $15.6 million and projecting to finish the weekend between $36 million and $38.5 million. The result far exceeded pre-release tracking that had forecast roughly $25 million for the full weekend and guarantees the biggest standalone Predator opening to date. Early audience polling has been exceptionally strong, suggesting broad word-of-mouth is driving the surprise performance. Box office tallies will be finalized Sunday morning.
Key Takeaways
- Predator: Badlands led Friday with $15.6 million and is on track for a $36M–$38.5M domestic opening weekend, surpassing earlier $25M tracking.
- The film is poised to claim the largest opening for a standalone Predator title and threatens to exceed AVP: Alien vs. Predator’s $38.4M 2004 debut (not adjusted for inflation).
- Audience response is unusually strong for the franchise: an A- CinemaScore and near-perfect PostTrak exit ratings, including multiple five-star reports.
- Regretting You is showing remarkable staying power in its third weekend, with Paramount estimating a modest decline of about 7% to roughly $7.3M and a cumulative domestic gross near $38.8M.
- Black Phone 2 is estimated to earn $5.2M in its fourth weekend, pushing its domestic total to about $70M.
- Amazon MGM’s Sarah’s Oil is expected to open around $4.4M, buoyed by an A+ CinemaScore and a 97% Rotten Tomatoes audience rating.
- Awards-minded titles debuting this weekend include Sony Pictures Classics’ Nuremberg (projected $3.7M–$4.0M), while several prestige films have underperformed relative to critical buzz.
- Early specialty play for Neon’s Sentimental Value suggests very high per-theater averages (about $50,000) in limited release.
Background
The Predator franchise started with John McTiernan’s 1987 original and has expanded into a nine-film series produced in part by John Davis. After Disney acquired 20th Century properties via the Fox merger, the franchise has been shepherded under the company’s umbrella, opening new creative possibilities and distribution strategies. Pre-release tracking for Badlands had been conservative, estimating roughly $25M for its opening weekend, reflecting uncertainty about mainstream appetite for another Predator entry.
Dan Trachtenberg, who co-conceived Badlands with Prey writer Patrick Aison, has developed a reputation for reinvigorating genre properties. His prior films—10 Cloverfield Lane (2016), the 2021 Prey, and last June’s Predator: Killer of Killers animated anthology—demonstrated an ability to reframe established IP. Studios and audiences had reason to watch whether his approach could restore domestic box office momentum in an otherwise slow early-November window.
Main Event
On Friday, Badlands surged to the top of the chart with $15.6M, putting the film on course for a $36M–$38.5M weekend total. The performance now ensures Badlands will eclipse all prior standalone Predator openings, and it sits within range of the $38.4M opening achieved by AVP: Alien vs. Predator in 2004. The early receipts reflect both critical momentum and positive audience reaction reported by exit polling services.
Trachtenberg’s iteration recasts a Predator as a protagonist: Dek (Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi) — cast out by his Yautja clan — pilots his brother Kwei’s ship to the lethal world Genna to prove himself. He encounters Thia (Elle Fanning), a synthetic created under the Weyland-Yutani banner. The film’s premise — an unsanctioned hunt that becomes an unlikely partnership — has resonated with viewers and reviewers alike.
Disney and 20th Century’s marketing amplified early critical praise and pushed strong awareness into multiplexes. Box office tracking will be updated as Sunday grosses settle, but initial indicators point to a weekend significantly above projection, driven by both franchise curiosity and positive word-of-mouth.
Analysis & Implications
At the studio level, Badlands’ opening recalibrates expectations for November releases and demonstrates there is still upside for mid-budget genre films with clear audience appeal. A stronger-than-expected launch improves the title’s prospects across international windows, streaming windows, and ancillary revenue such as merchandising and licensing. For Disney, the result reinforces the value of its acquired 20th Century catalog and the potential for franchise reinvention under new creative teams.
For the Predator franchise itself, this weekend could mark a turning point: a successful new direction that makes further sequels or spin-offs more viable. If Trachtenberg’s approach—humanizing a Predator and pairing it with a sympathetic synthetic—continues to play well, studios may be more willing to greenlight bold reworks rather than safe retreads. That said, sustaining box office beyond opening week will be the true test of long-term profitability.
The broader marketplace takeaway is that female-skewing and faith-tinged properties can sustain box office through repeat viewings and demographic reliability, as Regretting You and Sarah’s Oil suggest. Studios may place increased emphasis on targeted marketing and audience-first metrics like CinemaScore and PostTrak when forecasting legs and downstream monetization.
Comparison & Data
| Title | Projected/Actual Opening | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Predator: Badlands | $36M–$38.5M (projected) | Friday: $15.6M; CinemaScore A-; PostTrak strong |
| AVP: Alien vs. Predator (2004) | $38.4M (opening) | Highest non-inflation adjusted series opener to date |
| Black Phone 2 (current) | $5.2M (est., weekend) | Domestic total ≈ $70M through fourth weekend |
The table highlights how Badlands stacks up against a major franchise benchmark and the current marketplace. Inflation adjustments would change the historical ranking, but on raw dollars Badlands is in close contention with AVP’s 2004 result. Detailed weekend numbers will clarify whether Badlands fully surpasses that figure.
Reactions & Quotes
“A- CinemaScore; multiple five-star PostTrak exits reported,”
Audience polling (CinemaScore/PostTrak)
The audience metrics above have been widely cited by studios and trackers as indicators of strong word-of-mouth and potential long legs for the title.
“Paramount estimates Regretting You will decline roughly 7% this frame and reach about $38.8M domestically,”
Paramount (studio estimate)
Paramount’s projection underscores the unexpected durability of female-skewing dramas this season, as distributors lean on demographic strength and targeted outreach.
Unconfirmed
- Final weekend totals for Predator: Badlands will be confirmed when Sunday grosses are reported; current figures are projections.
- Whether Badlands will ultimately surpass AVP’s $38.4M opening (not adjusted for inflation) depends on the finalized weekend math and remains uncertain.
- International box office performance and long-term streaming windows for Badlands have not been fully reported and could alter profitability estimates.
Bottom Line
Predator: Badlands delivered a surprise commercial start that reshapes early-November box office narratives. Strong audience scores — an A- CinemaScore and exceptional PostTrak results — suggest that positive word-of-mouth could sustain the film beyond an impressive opening weekend.
For studios, the weekend underscores two practical lessons: smart reinvention of legacy IP can pay off, and reliable audience metrics remain crucial for forecasting. Industry watchers should track Sunday’s final numbers and the film’s week-to-week declines to judge whether Badlands is a one-week phenomenon or the start of a renewed franchise arc.
Sources
- The Hollywood Reporter (Entertainment reporting)
- Box Office Mojo (Box office data & tracking)
- Rotten Tomatoes (Audience and critic scores)
- CinemaScore (Audience polling service)