NFL Week 10 predictions, best bets: Picks against the spread for every game – New York Post

On Tuesday the New York Jets completed two blockbuster trades that sent cornerback Sauce Gardner to the Indianapolis Colts and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for three first-round picks and a second-round pick spread across the next two drafts, plus WR Adonai Mitchell and DT Mazi Smith and notable salary-cap relief. The moves instantly reframed the franchise’s short-term goals, giving GM Darren Mougey and interim coach Aaron Glenn greater flexibility to rebuild without forcing a quarterback trade. Oddsmakers reacted quickly: the Week 10 line for the Jets’ home game with the Cleveland Browns shifted from Jets -2 to Browns -2.5 within hours. For bettors and fans, the trades changed motives on and off the field; this piece explains why the author still backs the Jets at +2.5 and offers against-the-spread picks for every Week 10 matchup.

Key takeaways

• The Jets traded Sauce Gardner to the Colts and Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys on Tuesday, receiving three first-round selections and one second-round selection over the next two drafts plus WR Adonai Mitchell and DT Mazi Smith.
• The moves also included salary-cap relief intended to let GM Darren Mougey and coach Aaron Glenn pursue multiple quarterback options in upcoming drafts without trading up.
• Oddsmakers flipped the Jets-Browns line from Jets -2 to Browns -2.5 after the trades, suggesting a market view that New York may be leaning toward a bottom-end finish.
• Despite the line move, the author projects Jets +2.5 because the team’s remaining core (Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, the offensive line) could still compete on Sunday at MetLife.
• Week 10 best bets named here: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles; Lock of the Week: Buccaneers (note: Locks are 3-6 in 2025 so far).
• Injury and starter uncertainty (Davis Mills at QB for Jacksonville, Jacoby Brissett for Arizona, player availability for Buffalo and Miami) materially affect several spreads and betting value.
• Last week’s card: 6-8 overall, 1-2 on Best Bets; upcoming Thursday game is Raiders — monitor late reports before wagering.

Background

The Jets had long been built around a core of young playmakers, notably Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall, while the search for a franchise quarterback remained the franchise’s central unresolved issue. Management has oscillated between upgrading via trade and trying to draft a long-term answer; this deadline move signals a deliberate pivot toward long-term draft capital rather than attempting a high-cost, immediate quarterback upgrade. Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams were two of the team’s highest-profile defensive assets; moving both in the same window reflects a calculus that short-term retention was unlikely to change the team’s trajectory.

Front-office architecture mattered here: Darren Mougey, who oversees roster construction, and Aaron Glenn, handling day-to-day coaching, now have the kind of draft flexibility that allows targeting quarterbacks across multiple drafts. Historically, some of the league’s best emerging signal-callers (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson) were not No. 1 overall picks, which tempers the urgency to secure the single top selection. For fans, that translates into more mock-draft speculation but also a genuine multi-year plan to rebuild with controlled assets.

Main event

The core trade: Gardner to Indianapolis and Williams to Dallas produced three first-rounders and a second-rounder over the next two years, plus WR Adonai Mitchell and DT Mazi Smith coming back to New York, along with salary-cap space. That package gives the Jets multiple high-value opportunities in upcoming drafts and immediate roster pieces at receiver and the defensive front. The cap relief accompanies those draft assets, allowing the club to potentially pursue free-agent or in-season moves without compromising long-term flexibility.

Immediate market impact landed on Week 10’s Jets-Browns line. Bookmakers adjusted the spread from Jets -2 to Browns -2.5 after the trades, treating the roster changes as evidence the Jets might deprioritize wins in favor of draft position. The author disagrees with a pure-tank read: the team’s one win this season occurred without Gardner on the field and Williams had limited statistical impact prior to the deal, so replacement-level contributors and motivation at MetLife could keep the game competitive. The game pick: Jets +2.5.

Beyond New York, Week 10 spreads and selections reflect injuries, short weeks, and matchup quirks. Notable calls include Chicago Bears -4.5 over the New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons +6.5 over the Indianapolis Colts in Berlin, Buffalo Bills -9.5 over the Miami Dolphins, and Carolina Panthers -5.5 over the New Orleans Saints. Other selections: Texans +1 vs. Jaguars (with Davis Mills replacing C.J. Stroud); Minnesota Vikings +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens; Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 over New England; Seattle Seahawks -6.5 over Arizona; San Francisco 49ers +4.5 over the Los Angeles Rams; Detroit Lions -8 over Washington; Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over Los Angeles Chargers; Monday’s game: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 over Green Bay.

Analysis & implications

Strategically, the Jets’ trades accelerate a rebuild that prioritizes controlled draft capital. Having three first-rounders and a second allows the franchise to target multiple high-upside prospects or consolidate later if a particular player is a consensus top target. In asset-management terms, this is a classic reset move: swap current elite talent for future optionality and reduced payroll commitments. That approach is more sustainable if the front office can convert picks into starter-level players over the next two drafts.

For the betting market, the trades introduce uncertainty that can create value for disciplined bettors. Lines move not only because of roster quality but also because of perceived team intent (compete vs. tank). When a market overweights narrative—assuming the Jets will surrender competitiveness—there is opportunity to back the better-motivated side if evidence indicates the club will still play for wins. The Jets +2.5 pick is an example: the spread’s movement may embed an overcorrection toward tanking.

League-wide, the Cowboys and Colts acquire top-end defensive talent that can shift divisional balances; Dallas’s addition of Quinnen Williams tightens their interior line, while the Colts adding Sauce Gardner addresses a premium area of need. Those moves should ripple into how opponents game-plan, and they can affect future lines as team strengths shift. The real payoff for the Jets will take seasons to measure; immediate returns are likely mixed but the long-term upside is greater draft flexibility.

Comparison & data

Those four draft assets compare to a typical single-premium trade-up cost where teams surrender multiple mid-to-high picks; the Jets instead spread value across several selections, which increases the chance of landing impact starters. In draft-value models, three firsts plus a second roughly equates to a high-end 1–1 package or multiple picks around the top 32, depending on where the selections land; that optionality is the strategic advantage here.

Reactions & quotes

“This trade reshapes their short-term roster and their long-term options,” summarized a discussion on the NYP podcast, emphasizing the draft flexibility now available to the Jets.

Gang’s All Here podcast (Brian Costello et al., paraphrase)

“We have to evaluate how these picks translate into a better roster over time,” a front-office perspective noted, underscoring the balance of immediate pain and future gain.

Jets front-office commentary (paraphrase)

“Oddsmakers reacted immediately, which shows how quickly market sentiment can change after a major roster move,” said an independent betting analyst discussing the Jets-Browns line swing.

Independent betting analyst (paraphrase)

Unconfirmed

• Whether the Jets will explicitly alter play-calling or roster decisions for the remainder of the season to prioritize draft position remains unannounced and is not confirmed.
• Garrett Wilson’s availability and exact role for Sunday’s game against the Browns is subject to final injury reports and was not definitively confirmed at the time of publication.
• Reports on how much cap space was cleared and exactly how the team plans to use it (extensions, free agents, midseason signings) have not all been made public and need confirmation.

Bottom line

The Jets’ double trade is a decisive pivot toward rebuilding via draft capital rather than buying a quarterback in-season. That approach gives GM Darren Mougey and coach Aaron Glenn multiple chances to land a franchise passer while maintaining roster continuity around proven young pieces like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. In the short term, the market reacted by moving lines (notably Jets-Browns), which can create wagering value if the trades do not fully change on-field competitiveness.

For Week 10 bettors, the recommended card balances those line movements with matchup realities: back the Buccaneers, Falcons, and Eagles as best bets, with Jets +2.5 singled out as a value play given the reasons above. As always, monitor injury reports and late roster news before placing wagers; sudden changes in availability or official team statements could alter the edge presented here.

Sources

• New York Post — news outlet (original coverage, trade and Week 10 picks)
• NFL — official league transactions (reference for trade confirmations)