— Seven months into President Donald Trump’s second term, a Labor Day review finds a split picture for American workers: pay is rising faster than inflation and unemployment remains just above 4%, yet unions and employers report mounting strain from tighter immigration policies, a high-profile offshore wind pause, and a sharp contraction in the federal workforce.
Key Takeaways
- Average wages rose 3.9% over the year through July, outpacing inflation.
- National unemployment sits a little over 4%, with most jobseekers employed.
- Immigration crackdowns and the end of certain humanitarian relief programs have revoked work authorization for some long-time residents.
- Labor shortages are intensifying in agriculture and long-term care; remaining staff report longer hours and training demands.
- The administration paused the near-complete Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island in August on national security grounds, idling several hundred workers.
- Union leaders warn Biden-era infrastructure jobs could face funding cuts or delays.
- OPM projects about 300,000 federal employees will depart by year-end, largely voluntary, amid an efficiency push.
Verified Facts
Headline labor indicators remain solid. As of July, average wages were up 3.9% year over year while inflation ran lower, and unemployment held just above 4%. In short, most Americans who want work have it, according to reporting based on federal data.
Immigration policy shifts have reshaped parts of the labor market. Beyond stepped-up enforcement against people in the U.S. unlawfully, the administration has ended programs that had provided relief to those from unsafe conditions abroad. Some individuals who had been able to live and work in the U.S. for years have seen their status revoked. Employers report knock-on effects across farms, Midwest factories, and home-based elder care — sectors that have long relied on immigrant labor and often struggle to hire domestically.
Union leaders representing blue-collar workers express concern about policy unpredictability. A prominent example is the stop-work order on Revolution Wind, an offshore wind farm off Rhode Island. The administration paused the project in August citing national security. The project had long since been permitted and was roughly 80% complete; several hundred offshore workers were subsequently idled.
The federal government is experiencing rapid personnel churn. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) says that by year’s end, approximately 300,000 federal employees will have left, most through voluntary departures. OPM’s director framed the shift as an opportunity to reward efficiency; critics counter that agency capacity may erode, noting recent departures of senior leaders at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Labor organizations, including the AFL-CIO, argue that many workers feel insecure despite favorable top-line metrics. They cite uncertainty around infrastructure pipelines, workplace standards enforcement, and sector-specific disruption from immigration changes.
| Indicator | Latest figure | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Average wage growth (YoY) | 3.9% | July 2025 |
| Unemployment rate | Just over 4% | July 2025 |
| Projected federal employee departures | ~300,000 | By end of 2025 |
| Revolution Wind completion | ~80% | Paused Aug. 2025 |
Context & Impact
The administration frames its agenda as pro-worker industrial policy, emphasizing blue-collar pay and domestic production. Supporters point to steady job markets and real wage gains as evidence that policies are working.
Unions and many employers see a different risk profile: immigration restrictions removing experienced workers from hard-to-staff roles; uncertainty around large-scale energy and infrastructure builds; and federal workforce attrition that could slow permitting, public health response, and service delivery.
Public unease has spilled into the streets. Demonstrations in Washington, D.C., on April 5, 2025, signaled organized pushback to administration priorities and to advisers seen as influential in economic and labor policy.
Over the next several years, outcomes will hinge on whether productivity and domestic investment rise enough to offset frictions from workforce shortages, project pauses, and thinner federal capacity.
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Official Statements
Every policy is designed to lift American workers, expand great-paying blue-collar jobs, and rebuild our industrial base.
President Donald Trump, remarks to Cabinet
By every measure, this has been the most hostile administration to workers in our lifetimes.
Liz Shuler, President, AFL-CIO
Pausing a permitted project that’s 80% built strands hundreds of our members and chills the entire renewables pipeline.
Brent Booker, General President, Laborers’ International Union of North America
Turnover is an opportunity to redesign government and reward efficiency.
Scott Kupor, Director, U.S. Office of Personnel Management, on CNBC
Unconfirmed
- The specific national security rationale for the Revolution Wind pause has not been publicly detailed.
- Which precise humanitarian relief programs were ended and the number of individuals affected were not enumerated in the available reporting.
- The final disposition of Biden-era infrastructure projects beyond Revolution Wind remains unclear.
- Exact counts of idled workers tied to the wind pause were not released, beyond “several hundred.”
Bottom Line
Two truths can be valid at once: Workers, on average, are earning more in real terms in a still-strong job market — and many feel less secure amid immigration upheaval, project-level reversals, and a thinning federal workforce. The test for the next three-plus years is whether promised gains in efficiency and industrial revival outweigh the near-term disruption they are causing.