On Nov. 12, 2025 (updated Nov. 13, 2025), global equities extended a three-day advance that pushed markets close to an all-time high as President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the longest US government shutdown. Asian stock markets traded with restraint, reflecting a scarcity of fresh economic data that left investors uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Futures on the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% after the underlying index logged a fourth straight daily gain. Market participants cited the twin effects of the shutdown resolution and a near-term data vacuum in shaping risk appetite.
Key Takeaways
- Global shares recorded a three-day gain into Nov. 12–13, bringing major indices within reach of record levels.
- President Donald Trump signed legislation to end the longest US government shutdown in history on Nov. 12–13, removing a key political overhang.
- MSCI All Country World Index swung between small gains and losses as Asian markets showed muted moves amid uncertainty.
- S&P 500 futures moved up roughly 0.1% after the cash index had risen for four consecutive sessions.
- Investors cited a shortage of new economic releases across Asia and the US, complicating bets on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
- Risk sentiment improved modestly after the shutdown ended, but liquidity and data gaps kept volatility risks alive.
Background
The US government shutdown that concluded on Nov. 12–13 had been the longest in US history, creating intermittent uncertainty for markets dependent on timely economic reports and fiscal clarity. Political impasses of that scale typically delay data releases and disrupt business confidence, factors traders monitor closely when pricing risk and growth expectations. Meanwhile, major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, have signaled that incoming economic data will determine the timing and size of future rate moves—a dynamic that elevates the importance of a steady flow of indicators.
Asia’s markets entered the week with mixed fundamentals: export-sensitive economies are watching global demand, while domestic growth metrics remain patchy. With several scheduled releases either delayed or thin on headline surprises, traders found fewer anchors for conviction, prompting a more cautious stance. The MSCI All Country World Index served as a barometer of this ambivalence, oscillating as investors weighed political relief in Washington against a near-term information gap.
Main Event
The signing of legislation to end the prolonged US shutdown provided an immediate political relief that lifted risk appetite modestly across asset classes. Equities in the US had already been on an upswing, with the S&P 500 advancing for four straight sessions prior to futures edging higher on Nov. 12–13. That momentum reflected traders’ relief at restored government operations and the removal of uncertainty around federal services and data releases.
In Asia, however, trading was subdued. Major regional bourses and the MSCI All Country World Index moved in a narrow band between small gains and losses as investors awaited fresh macro data and corporate results. Market commentary from local brokers noted that positioning ahead of upcoming earnings and economic prints limited aggressive buying, even as global liquidity conditions remained supportive.
Fixed-income markets saw muted reaction overall, with bond yields trading in tight ranges as investors digested the shutdown resolution alongside a lack of new inflation or payroll data. Currency markets likewise reflected a wait-and-see stance: the dollar traded without a sustained directional move as traders balanced US political clarity with continuing uncertainty over the Fed’s next announcement.
Analysis & Implications
The immediate market response suggests the shutdown’s end removed a headline tail risk, but the absence of fresh data means policymakers and investors still lack decisive signals about growth and inflation. For the Federal Reserve, the timing and tone of the next policy communication will depend heavily on incoming prints; without them, the path to a rate cut or pause remains ambiguous. That ambiguity tends to compress positioning—market participants maintain modest exposures rather than making large directional bets.
Asian markets’ caution reflects structural sensitivities: many economies in the region rely on export demand and are vulnerable to global demand shifts. A data void can therefore produce outsized short-term moves if any single report surprises. Corporate earnings season adds another layer of risk; companies that beat expectations could lift regional indices quickly, while disappointments might trigger sharper sell-offs given thin positioning.
Investor focus will likely sharpen on the calendar for the next scheduled releases—employment, inflation, and manufacturing gauges—that can move the needle on Fed expectations. If incoming data reaffirms resilient US growth or persistent inflation, markets could price in delayed easing and exert pressure on risk assets. Conversely, softer numbers would bolster the case for easier policy and could sustain the advance toward record highs.
Comparison & Data
| Index | Recent Move (since Nov. 10) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +~1.5% (four-session rise) | Lifted by political clarity and risk-on positioning |
| MSCI All Country World Index | Flat to small net change | Range-bound as Asian trading remained muted |
| Asian regional indices | Mixed: small gains/losses | Limited by thin data flow and earnings caution |
The table summarizes moves through Nov. 12–13 and highlights that, while US equities have shown steady gains, global and Asian indices displayed more restrained behavior. That divergence underscores how localized data availability and market structure shape regional performance even as global headlines—such as the shutdown resolution—affect sentiment broadly.
Reactions & Quotes
Market participants and officials offered measured responses emphasizing relief but urging caution given limited new information.
“The legislative resolution reduced a major political overhang, but investors still face a thin calendar of macro releases that could change expectations quickly.”
Market strategist at a global investment bank
The strategist noted that positioning had been conservative ahead of earnings and data prints, so any unexpected headlines could produce rapid re-pricing.
“With government operations restored, the immediate shock is over, but the next test is the data schedule that will guide central bank decisions.”
Senior analyst, regional equities desk
The analyst emphasized that central-bank-sensitive indicators will now take precedence in traders’ risk assessments.
Unconfirmed
- Whether the shutdown’s end will prompt an immediate change in the Federal Reserve’s planned communications remains unconfirmed and depends on upcoming data releases.
- Market chatter about an expedited corporate buyback program response in Asia has not been substantiated by company announcements.
Bottom Line
The end of the US government shutdown removed a significant political risk and supported global equity gains, but a near-term scarcity of economic data kept Asian markets cautious. The S&P 500’s four-session advance and a 0.1% rise in futures reflect improved sentiment, not yet a conviction about the next policy pivot.
Investors should watch the upcoming release schedule—employment, inflation, and manufacturing data—for clearer direction on Federal Reserve policy and global growth. Until those prints arrive, expect restrained positioning, episodic volatility around surprises, and the possibility that regional indices will diverge based on local fundamentals.