Lead
As the NFL season turns toward its second half, quarterback futures are a central story across all 32 teams. Daniel Jones, playing for a new contract in Indianapolis, and Tua Tagovailoa, carrying a costly guarantee in Miami, are among the highest-profile cases. This piece groups every starting quarterback (and one value-raising backup) into decision buckets, preserving contract lengths, average-per-year rankings and expected-points-added (EPA) context to show where clubs stand. The result: a clear snapshot of who is locked in, who is being evaluated and which situations could reshape offseasons and coaching jobs.
Key Takeaways
- The Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Bengals each have quarterbacks signed through at least 2027, with Patrick Mahomes (signed through 2031) continuing elite production (EPA rank: 8).
- Short-term elite: Matthew Stafford (through 2026) is an MVP candidate with an EPA rank of 4 this season despite age and prior back concerns.
- Several teams face expensive near-term guarantees: Tua Tagovailoa carries $54M fully guaranteed for 2026; Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray also have large guaranteed figures affecting roster choices.
- Young, high-upside starters (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels) present mixed signals — Maye leads rookies in passer rating through nine games (116.9) while others have regressed in Year 2.
- Veteran reclamation examples include Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones, both rising in value; Jones (signed through 2025) is in position to seek an extension from the Colts.
- Durability and availability remain critical: Joe Burrow’s availability (multiple missed seasons) is the primary remaining concern despite elite play when healthy.
- Backup value is notable: Mac Jones, producing well for San Francisco, complicates trade prospects because he reduces urgency to replace Brock Purdy.
Background
The NFL’s quarterback market now combines long-term mega-deals and short, high-risk contracts that can reshape roster building. Teams measure quarterbacks by a mix of contract cost (average per year, APY), guaranteed salary exposure and on-field efficiency measures such as expected points added (EPA) per pass play. That trio — money, injury risk and EPA — drives front-office choices from extensions to draft strategy.
Over the past decade, teams that locked in elite play with long-term deals (examples include Mahomes and Josh Allen) have seen sustained playoff windows; conversely, clubs that misallocated guarantees have faced coaching turnover and roster instability. The 2025 season has amplified those tradeoffs: some clubs are debating whether to commit more money, others must decide if short-term performance merits a long-term extension, and a few are constrained by guaranteed dollars that limit flexibility.
Main Event
Several clear groupings emerge. At the top, Patrick Mahomes (signed through 2031) and Josh Allen (through 2030) remain franchise cornerstones; both combine long deals with top-10 EPA ranks this season. Lamar Jackson (through 2027) sits among the most efficient passers (127.1 passer rating, 70% completion) and remains a major asset even as contract talks stalled this offseason.
In the short-term elite bucket, Matthew Stafford (signed through 2026) is producing at MVP-caliber levels (25 TD, 2 INT through nine games) while turning 38 next February. The Rams face the near-term question of how long to keep investing in an older but highly productive starter. Nearby, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts remain central to their clubs but carry different market and stylistic profiles that affect perceived long-term value.
Mid-market and developmental cases dominate the middle. Daniel Jones (Colts, through 2025) has revived his market value and sits in strong position to bargain for an extension; both sides hold leverage. Sam Darnold in Seattle and Drake Maye in New England have also seen their stock rise, the former as a reclamation success and the latter as a surprisingly efficient second-year passer (116.9 rating through nine games).
At the other end, veterans such as Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh, through 2025) and quarterbacks with troubling on-field returns (e.g., J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr.) face greater scrutiny. Some teams are effectively financially stuck — Tua’s $54M guaranteed for 2026 limits Miami’s short-term options — which could keep current plans in place even amid underperformance.
Analysis & Implications
Contracts shape decisions as much as on-field play. Fully guaranteed money for 2026 (Tua $54M, Trevor Lawrence $37M guaranteed, Kyler Murray $38M guaranteed) creates a form of inertia: teams are less likely to move off costly players this winter unless production collapses or trade partners absorb guarantees. That dynamic tends to protect coaches in the short term while constraining roster flexibility.
Performance metrics such as EPA per pass play help separate perception from productivity. Players like Jared Goff (EPA rank: 1 this season) and Lamar Jackson (EPA rank: 7) show that efficient play can come from different styles — pocket accuracy versus designed mobility — and that contract debates should weigh role fit and offensive scheme, not just raw counting stats.
For younger quarterbacks, the “second-year slump” remains a real risk. Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud have shown contrasting trajectories: Stroud has delivered playoff wins but faces offensive-coordinator turnover and O-line issues, while Daniels has regressed amid injuries. Teams must judge whether sample-size problems or systemic roster holes explain dips in production.
Finally, the draft and trade market will react to this landscape. Teams with cheap, controllable quarterbacks and poor records are prime trade or draft targets; clubs with expensive guarantees may seek compensatory picks or short-term schemes to win now. The 2026 offseason should see a flurry of extensions, restructures and at least a few shock moves if poor play or new coaching hires change incentives.
Comparison & Data
| Quarterback | Signed Through | APY Rank | EPA Rank (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 2031 | T14 | 8 |
| Josh Allen | 2030 | T2 | 5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2027 | 10 | 7 |
| Daniel Jones | 2025 | 21 | 9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2028 | 6 | 24 |
The table highlights how contract length and salary ranking do not always line up with on-field efficiency. For example, some high-APY players rank lower in EPA this season, while lower-APY players can rank high in EPA. That divergence explains why front offices watch both finance and advanced metrics closely ahead of trade deadlines and offseason negotiations.
Reactions & Quotes
Front-office evaluators and coaches are watching both tape and cap sheets for signs of permanent direction.
We’re evaluating everything — health, scheme fit and long-term cost — before we commit to another big contract.
Team executive (anonymized, front office)
The on-field leaders offer measured perspectives about continuity and pressure.
Every game matters. I try not to think about contracts — I focus on the next play and helping my teammates win.
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (player remark)
Analysts emphasize the interplay of numbers and context.
EPA and availability together tell a clearer story than either alone; you’re paying both for peak performance and the ability to deliver it consistently.
Independent analyst (analytics outlet)
Unconfirmed
- Reports that the Ravens will reopen extension talks with Lamar Jackson before 2026 are unconfirmed and lack a public timetable.
- Rumors of the 49ers actively shopping Mac Jones are unconfirmed; the 49ers’ need for insurance behind Brock Purdy makes a trade unlikely.
- Speculation that the Dolphins will remove coach Mike McDaniel due solely to Tagovailoa’s contract exposure is unconfirmed and lacks clear sourcing.
Bottom Line
The league-wide quarterback picture entering the back half of 2025 is a mix of certainty and pending decisions. A handful of franchise quarterbacks are securely signed and producing at elite levels; several veterans pose financial challenges that shape roster choices; and a wave of younger signal-callers require more time and context to judge. Contract guarantees, health and EPA-based performance together will drive trades, extensions and firings this winter.
For teams like the Colts and Seahawks, midseason performance by emerging or revived quarterbacks (Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold) can convert short-term success into longer commitments. For clubs carrying large guarantees (Miami, Jacksonville, Arizona), the next offseason’s decisions will likely prioritize cap creativity unless on-field results force a different path. Fans and front offices alike should watch availability, coordinator stability and late-season efficiency as the best predictors of 2026 decisions.