PFT’s Week 11 2025 picks, Florio vs. Simms – NBC Sports

Lead

In Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio and Chris Simms publish their head-to-head picks. The two tied last week at 10-4 straight up and report they agree on every straight-up winner again this week, while differing on seven spread calls. Florio carries a narrow season straight-up edge, 99-49-1 to Simms’s 98-50-1, and the series also shows divergence against the spread (Florio 79-70; Simms 74-75). The set includes marquee matchups such as Bills-Buccaneers, Chiefs-Broncos, and a Madrid neutral-site game between the Commanders and Dolphins.

Key Takeaways

• Florio and Simms agreed on every straight-up winner in Week 11 despite different scorelines; they tied 10-4 straight up last week.
• Season straight-up tallies stand at Florio 99-49-1 and Simms 98-50-1, a one-game margin in favor of Florio.
• Against the spread this year Florio is 79-70 while Simms is 74-75, meaning Florio is +5 ATS overall.
• They disagree on seven spreads for Week 11, turning this into a picks-versus-line week for bettors.
• Notable spreads: Patriots -12.5 vs. Jets, Bills -5.5 vs. Buccaneers, Ravens -7.5 vs. Browns, and Chiefs -3.5 vs. Broncos.
• Bills-Buccaneers is flagged as one of the most intriguing matchups; both analysts see a close game with Buffalo prevailing.
• Several divisional games (49ers-Cardinals, Chiefs-Broncos, Ravens-Browns) have playoff seeding implications.

Background

The Florio–Simms picks column is a recurring PFT feature that pairs Mike Florio, the site’s veteran editor, with former NFL quarterback and analyst Chris Simms. The segment is as much about entertainment as information: each week they publish straight-up score predictions and implicitly set a contest between their season-long records. Readers follow both the head-to-head weekly results and the parallel betting metric of picks against the spread (ATS), which often diverge from straight-up outcomes.

Through Week 10 of the 2025 season, the two analysts have exchanged tight margins in the straight-up ledger while showing differing success covering spreads. That split highlights how handicapping winners and predicting margins are distinct skills influenced by turnover, injuries, and coaching decisions. The Week 11 slate mixes clear favorites and volatile spots — a neutral-site game in Madrid, short weeks for some teams, and a handful of prime-time matchups — increasing line movement risk and late changes.

Main Event

Jets at Patriots (-12.5): Both expect New England to cover a large number, with Florio projecting Patriots 30, Jets 20 and Simms favoring a firmer Patriots margin, 27-10. The spread reflects the bookmakers’ view that New England is the superior team and capable of imposing its game plan. Commanders vs. Dolphins (-2.5) in Madrid: both pick Miami, with Florio 23-20 and Simms 24-17, suggesting confidence in the Dolphins’ depth despite the travel and neutral-site wrinkle.

Panthers at Falcons (-3.5): The Falcons are selected by both men — Florio 23-17, Simms 23-20 — though Carolina’s missed opportunities and Atlanta’s inconsistency keep the line close. Buccaneers at Bills (-5.5): a marquee one-score affair; Florio has Buffalo 27-24 while Simms lists 28-24, indicating both expect a competitive game with the Bills edging out Tampa Bay.

Chargers (-3) at Jaguars and Bears at Vikings (-3): Chargers are chosen by both (Florio 24-17; Simms 30-20) as Los Angeles pursues a championship window. Vikings are narrowly favored at home in both cards (Florio 24-23; Simms 27-23), a must-win tone for Minnesota to keep postseason hopes alive.

Packers (-7) at Giants and Bengals at Steelers (-5.5): Green Bay is projected to cover by both analysts (Florio 24-20; Simms 28-17). Pittsburgh is tabbed as the winner over Cincinnati in both picks (Florio 28-20; Simms 27-21), with Simms predicting slightly tighter margins elsewhere. Other matchups include Texans (-6.5) at Titans (Florio 17-13; Simms 24-9), 49ers (-3) at Cardinals (Florio 30-13; Simms 31-27), Seahawks at Rams (-3) (Florio Rams 30-24; Simms Rams 32-28), Ravens (-7.5) at Browns (Florio 21-17; Simms 28-13), Chiefs (-3.5) at Broncos (Florio 24-17; Simms 23-20), Lions at Eagles (-2.5) (Florio Lions 27-23; Simms Lions 20-17), and Cowboys (-3.5) at Raiders (Florio 31-20; Simms 24-20).

Analysis & Implications

Agreement on winners but disagreement on spreads underscores a common dynamic: both analysts see the same likely outcomes but differ on margin confidence. For bettors, that split can be actionable — when two experienced handicappers align on a winner but diverge on the spread, it often signals that public money and line movement could create value on one side. The seven spread differences this week include both blowout expectations (Patriots -12.5, Ravens -7.5) and closer lines (Chiefs -3.5, Eagles -2.5).

Playoff and seeding ramifications are present across the slate. The Chiefs cannot afford a slide toward .500, while the 49ers and Ravens are positioned to assert division control with wins. Neutral-site variables (Madrid) and short-week preparation will influence coaching staff decisions and rotational usage, which in turn affects late-breaking odds and in-game strategies. Depth, turnover margin and quarterback health remain the most decisive factors in converting picks into covers.

Statistically, Florio’s slight edge ATS (79-70) suggests marginally better cover rate, but Simms’s near-.500 ATS (74-75) still reflects competent handicapping. For readers tracking predictive skill, the comparison of straight-up success and ATS performance matters: straight-up accuracy reflects outcome forecasting, while ATS measures margin forecasting — both are informative but distinct. Expect sportsbooks to monitor big-money movement on AFC primetime games and to adjust lines if injury reports or weather forecasts shift.

Comparison & Data

The table shows a one-game SU margin for Florio and a five-game ATS advantage. Those differences are small but meaningful when evaluating long-term handicapping performance. Bettors and readers should weigh both metrics when deciding whether to follow a particular analyst or split stakes between winner and spread plays.

Reactions & Quotes

Both analysts framed the week as one of consensus winners with debate over margins, a posture that invites attention from bettors and readers watching line movement.

“We pick the same winners this week but not the same lines — seven spreads separate us,”

Mike Florio / ProFootballTalk (NBC Sports)

Florio’s remark, emphasizing the agreement on winners, was offered alongside his slightly wider projected margins in several matchups. That contrasts with Simms, who cited game-flow concerns and defensive matchups as reasons to shade certain spreads.

“Game flow and matchup details make me lean differently on margins even when I like the same teams,”

Chris Simms / ProFootballTalk (NBC Sports)

Unconfirmed

• Late injury report changes: several teams list players questionable; any late scratches could alter spread value but were not finalized at publication time.
• Travel and neutral-site impacts for the Madrid game may produce unexpected on-field effects; how each team handles logistics remains uncertain.
• Any significant line movement on Sunday morning could indicate sharp money influence; at time of publication major shifts had not been confirmed.

Bottom Line

This Week 11 PFT installment is notable for consensus on winners paired with notable disagreement on seven spreads — a pattern that turns the column into both a scoreboard forecast and a spreads study. For bettors, the split offers potential value: where two informed voices agree on a victor but not the margin, opportunistic line shopping or split-staking strategies may be warranted. Readers tracking predictive skill should monitor both SU and ATS trajectories over the remainder of the season to judge long-term reliability.

Watch injury reports and morning line movement closely: several games have tight margins or neutral-site complications that could produce late adjustments. Ultimately, the picks reinforce that forecasting winners and estimating margins are related but separate challenges; Florio and Simms continue to provide a readable, contrast-rich lens on both.

Sources

• ProFootballTalk / NBC Sports — sports media (original picks and commentary)