Lead: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Thursday that partial October jobs data will be released after a government shutdown delayed several major economic reports. Wall Street is bracing for a batch of delayed releases—including jobs and inflation figures—that market participants expect will show a cooling labor market alongside elevated inflation. The White House earlier indicated October data might not be published, creating uncertainty that Hassett’s remarks sought to reduce. Timing remains imprecise and some survey components are still missing, leaving gaps in headline indicators.
Key Takeaways
- Kevin Hassett (NEC director) said the October jobs report will include payrolls added in the month but exclude the unemployment rate because the household survey was not run during the shutdown.
- The October jobs report had been scheduled for Nov. 7; Hassett did not announce a firm release date for the partial report.
- September data were also delayed: the September jobs report (originally Oct. 3) and other statistics were postponed by the shutdown.
- September’s CPI release was postponed until Oct. 24, and the September consumer expenditures report was originally set for Oct. 30.
- October’s CPI had been scheduled for Nov. 13, and several reports may arrive in a tranche once processing resumes.
- Markets expect the delayed package to show weaker payroll growth and persistent inflation pressures, heightening short-term volatility in rates and equities.
- Some headline measures—specifically the unemployment rate—cannot be produced until the household survey is completed, creating unavoidable data gaps.
Background
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and other statistical agencies paused operations during a recent federal government shutdown, delaying scheduled releases for September and October economic indicators. The monthly jobs report (employment situation) combines two separate surveys: a payrolls survey of establishments and a household survey that produces the unemployment rate. When one survey is not conducted, parts of the usual headline package cannot be calculated in the standard way.
Delays in official statistics have outsized effects because market participants, policymakers and analysts rely on timely month-to-month comparisons to update growth and inflation models. The White House spokesman’s earlier comment that October data could be ‘likely never’ released raised concerns about long-term data gaps; that language intensified pressure on federal officials to clarify what could be salvaged and when. Independent analysts and traders are closely monitoring agency statements and comments from administration officials for any firm timelines.
Main Event
On Thursday, Kevin Hassett told Fox News the October payrolls total—the number of jobs added—will be published even though the household survey necessary for the unemployment rate was not completed during the shutdown. Hassett emphasized that the establishments payroll data can be processed separately, allowing a partial release that preserves a critical flow variable for markets and forecasters.
Hassett also noted that the September payrolls report, which had been delayed earlier, has been processed and ‘already been cooked’ in his words, suggesting it could be released imminently. He did not provide a specific calendar date for the October partial release, leaving investors to prepare for timing within days to weeks rather than hours.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics had postponed several headline releases: the September employment situation (originally Oct. 3), September consumer price index (postponed until Oct. 24), September consumer expenditures (originally Oct. 30), October employment (Nov. 7) and October CPI (Nov. 13). Those schedule changes compressed the agencies’ workload and complicated the typical monthly reporting cadence.
Analysis & Implications
Partial publication of payrolls without the unemployment rate will provide useful but incomplete information. Payroll counts are a principal indicator of labor demand and are closely watched for trend changes; however, the unemployment rate and labor-force participation measure supply-side dynamics that can materially affect interpretation. Without both, economists will need to rely on ancillary indicators—jobless claims, payroll processor data, and private surveys—to infer broader labor-market health.
For monetary policy, incomplete data increase uncertainty for the Federal Reserve as it assesses whether recent inflation has been persistent. If the delayed CPI numbers arrive showing continued high inflation alongside weakening payrolls, policymakers will face a mixed signal: inflationary pressures that argue for tighter policy versus cooling labor that argues for restraint. That tension can translate into heightened volatility in bond yields and risk assets when the tranche of reports is published.
Markets tend to dislike uncertainty and data gaps; a clustered release of several large reports can produce outsized moves as investors adjust positions based on a condensed wave of information. Short-term trading desks and algorithmic strategies will likely amplify price action around each release. Longer-term forecasts may be less affected if agencies produce consistent revisions and clear metadata describing how missing survey components were handled.
Comparison & Data
| Report | Original Schedule |
|---|---|
| September jobs & unemployment | Oct. 3 |
| September CPI | Oct. 24 (postponed) |
| September consumer expenditures | Oct. 30 |
| October jobs & unemployment | Nov. 7 |
| October CPI | Nov. 13 |
The table above summarizes the primary delayed releases and their original calendar dates. When multiple months’ results are compressed into a short window, analysts compare month-over-month and year-over-year changes carefully and look for revisions that can retrospectively alter economic narratives. Historically, large processing backlogs have resulted in methodological notes and supplementary files; users should expect similar documentation with these delayed releases.
Reactions & Quotes
We will publish what we can from October’s employment data, though some survey pieces were not completed, so the package will be partial.
Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council (statement to Fox News)
Hassett’s comment sought to clarify that establishment payrolls could be released independently even if the household survey was absent. Market participants interpreted the statement as a sign that at least some usable labor-market information will be available for near-term decision-making.
Economic data for October may never be published in full and could be permanently impaired if key surveys are missing.
Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary (earlier statement)
The White House press office’s earlier warning amplified concerns among analysts about long-term statistical disruption, prompting agency officials to outline recovery plans and the NEC to provide a partial corrective narrative. That exchange highlighted tensions between political communications and statistical agencies’ operational constraints.
Unconfirmed
- The exact release date for the partial October payrolls figure has not been confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- It is not yet confirmed whether any supplemental household-survey workarounds will be used to estimate an unemployment rate for October.
- Statements that September data have been ‘finalized’ are based on NEC commentary and await formal publication by the BLS.
Bottom Line
Officials now plan to publish at least part of October’s employment picture—specifically payrolls added—even though the household survey was not conducted during the shutdown, and a full unemployment rate will be absent. That partial release reduces some immediate uncertainty but leaves analysts and policymakers without the complete set of routine monthly indicators.
Investors should prepare for elevated market sensitivity as multiple delayed reports are published close together; policymakers will need to weigh mixed signals from labor demand and inflation measures. Close attention to agency notes, methodological disclosures and subsequent revisions will be essential for interpreting what the numbers imply for growth and policy.