— The U.S. labor force counted more than 1.2 million fewer immigrant workers from January through July, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of preliminary Census Bureau data, a shift coinciding with President Donald Trump’s intensified immigration enforcement and a sharp drop in illegal border crossings. The decline is rippling through agriculture, construction and caregiving, sectors that rely heavily on immigrant labor.
Key takeaways
- More than 1.2 million immigrants exited the U.S. labor force between January and July 2025, based on preliminary Census data analyzed by Pew.
- Immigrants account for nearly 20% of U.S. workers; they are 45% of farming/fishing/forestry, about 30% of construction, and 24% of service workers, per Pew.
- Immigrants make up roughly 43% of home health aides, raising concerns for long-term care staffing.
- The overall U.S. immigrant population is declining after the unauthorized population reached an estimated 14 million in 2023.
- Trump pledged mass removals and says deportations target “dangerous criminals,” yet most people detained by ICE have no criminal convictions, according to reporting.
- Construction payrolls have fallen in multiple metros; Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario lost 7,200 jobs and Los Angeles–Long Beach–Glendale lost 6,200, industry data show.
- A Dallas Fed economist says immigrants typically contribute at least half of U.S. job growth; the recent collapse in inflows is constraining hiring.
- Farm groups and advocates report disrupted harvests and smaller crews amid stepped-up enforcement actions.
Verified facts
Pew Research Center says preliminary Current Population Survey (CPS) data indicate a net decline of more than 1.2 million immigrant participants in the labor force from January through the end of July 2025. The figures cover both lawfully present and unauthorized immigrants. Pew senior researcher Stephanie Kramer notes the trend is large enough that, while preliminary, it appears real.
Pew data show immigrants comprise close to one-fifth of all U.S. workers. Their presence is especially concentrated in certain fields: about 45% in farming, fishing and forestry; roughly 30% in construction; and about 24% in service occupations. Immigrants are also estimated to be around 43% of home health aides, a critical part of the long-term care workforce.
The overall immigrant population has begun to edge down following an earlier run-up; the number of people in the U.S. without authorization was estimated at a record 14 million in 2023. The Trump administration has tightened enforcement and campaigned on deporting millions. While officials emphasize a focus on violent offenders, reporting indicates that a majority of those detained by ICE lack criminal convictions. Illegal border crossings have fallen markedly under the administration’s policies.
Pia Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says immigrants typically account for at least half of U.S. job growth. With border inflows “essentially stopped,” she argues, employers’ capacity to expand payrolls has been hit.
On-the-ground effects
Farmworker advocates in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley report enforcement actions at fields, packing facilities and nearby businesses that temporarily halted operations at points during the harvest. In California’s Ventura County, growers relying on contractor crews described days with notably smaller teams amid fears of workplace checks and roadside stops.
Construction firms are also feeling the pinch. An Associated General Contractors of America review of government employment data found losses across many metros, including declines of 7,200 construction jobs in Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario, California, and 6,200 in Los Angeles–Long Beach–Glendale. The association’s chief economist, Ken Simonson, says many contractors would hire if they could find qualified, willing workers and if intensified enforcement weren’t disrupting labor supply.
Health care unions warn that shortages could deepen in home- and facility-based care. SEIU leaders in California note that immigrants make up a large share of long-term care workers, and staffing gaps could limit access for millions of patients and families.
Context and impact
Preliminary data require caution: some of the observed decline could reflect departures to other countries, internal migration, removals, or survey undercounts. Still, multiple indicators point to a genuine contraction in immigrant labor force participation. If sustained, employers may face longer hiring times, rising wage pressure in labor-intensive roles, and production delays—especially at peak agricultural seasons, on construction sites and in home health.
Demographically, fewer working-age immigrants compound existing headwinds from an aging native-born population. In caregiving, where demand is rising, any prolonged shortfall in workers could translate into waitlists, reduced hours of service, or higher costs to consumers and public programs.
By the numbers: immigrant share of key sectors
| Sector | Immigrant share |
|---|---|
| Farming, fishing, forestry | ~45% |
| Construction | ~30% |
| Service occupations (overall) | ~24% |
| Home health aides | ~43% |
Official statements and expert views
“The net-negative migration showing up since January looks real, even with preliminary data caveats and potential undercount,”
Stephanie Kramer, Pew Research Center
“With the border inflow essentially stopped, it’s having a large effect on the ability to create jobs,”
Pia Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
“Contractors would hire more if they could find qualified workers—and if tougher enforcement weren’t disrupting labor supply,”
Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America
“If immigrant caregivers aren’t there, families will struggle to find home care providers,”
Arnulfo De La Cruz, SEIU 2015
Unconfirmed or still developing
- The precise mix of causes behind the 1.2 million decline—voluntary departures, removals, or survey undercount—has not been quantified.
- A detailed breakdown of how many affected workers are unauthorized vs. legally present has not been published.
- National scope and frequency of reported farm and worksite arrests beyond cited local incidents remain unclear.
- The durability of the downturn in immigrant labor force participation will depend on policy, enforcement intensity and future migration flows.
Bottom line
Early 2025 brought a rare contraction in immigrant participation in the U.S. labor force, aligning with tighter enforcement and weaker inflows. The short-term result is labor strain where immigrants are most concentrated—fields, job sites and home care. Whether that pressure eases will hinge on policy choices and the path of migration in the months ahead.