Fewer burritos, more bargains — Holiday retail signals

Lead

In mid-November 2025, multiple consumer-facing companies reported quarterly results showing a shift in spending: higher-income shoppers are trading down, younger cohorts are cutting back, and lower-income households remain strained. Those patterns surfaced in earnings calls and private card-data analyses and could pressure some large retailers as they enter the holiday season. At the same time, a handful of brands with strong cultural resonance or clear value propositions are still growing. The mix of signals has left retailers and investors watching this week’s Walmart, Target, Gap and Home Depot reports for a fuller read on holiday demand.

Key takeaways

High-income trading down: Several firms reported growth among wealthier shoppers choosing lower-priced options; 24% of surveyed households earning $100,000+ say they plan to spend less this holiday season (Alvarez & Marsal survey).
Gen Z and younger adults pulling back: The 25–35 cohort accounted for roughly 25% of Chipotle’s sales but visited less often in Q3, contributing to a downward revision in outlook at some fast-casual chains.
Macro contradictions: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projects 4.0% U.S. GDP growth in Q3, yet consumer sentiment dropped to near-record lows earlier in November and private payroll data showed weakness through late October.
Retail divergence: Value-oriented chains (Walmart, dollar stores, warehouse clubs) appear better positioned to benefit from deal-seeking across incomes, while some specialty and higher-priced retailers face share erosion.
Brand resilience: Companies with strong cultural appeal or distinct price positioning—Tapestry (Coach), On, Ralph Lauren, Dutch Bros.—reported robust demand or raised guidance despite broader softness.
Labor and spending link: Rising unemployment among younger workers (25–34 at 4.4% in August) plus resumed federal student loan repayments are key headwinds dampening discretionary purchases.
Holiday forecast remains cautiously positive: The National Retail Federation projects holiday sales growth of 3.7%–4.2% year over year and expects total November–December spending to top $1 trillion.

Background

The U.S. economic picture in November 2025 contains contradictory indicators. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimated 4.0% growth for Q3, suggesting momentum in output, while consumer sentiment measures and private payroll trackers signaled softening demand and job losses through late October. The federal government shutdown restricted some official data flows, further complicating timely labor-market analysis.

Retailers have been sounding varied signals in recent quarters. For about two years, many executives flagged weaker spending among lower-income households; more recently, higher-income shoppers have shown sensitivity to price and promotions. Credit-card and transaction-data firms, including Truist’s research group, reported that sales momentum at several large retailers cooled in October after stronger results in August and September.

Investors and analysts now look to a concentrated slate of major retailers—Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Gap—to provide a broader cross-section of consumer behavior through November earnings and holiday commentary. Trade groups such as the National Retail Federation continue to expect year-over-year holiday growth, but acknowledge shoppers are increasingly hunting deals and postponing purchases for Black Friday and Thanksgiving promotions.

Main event

High-income shoppers are visibly trading down into lower-priced restaurants and retailers. McDonald’s executives reported meaningful share gains among higher-income diners in Q3, attributing the move to value menu offerings such as Extra Value Meals. Casual-dining operators including Dine Brands said promotions (for example, Applebee’s 2-for-$25) helped attract higher-income guests, offsetting declines from lower-income cohorts.

The dollar and discount channels reported similar shifts. Walmart has highlighted gains among households earning more than $100,000 annually, and dollar-store chains said middle- and higher-income segments have been a growing portion of their customer base. These dynamics have helped value-focused companies maintain or expand volumes even as overall traffic softens in some categories.

Younger consumers have pulled back more sharply. Fast-casual chains—Chipotle, Cava, Sweetgreen—reduced guidance after noting fewer visits from 25- to 35-year-olds, a group vulnerable to job-market cooling, higher unemployment and renewed student loan payments. Consumer brands that skew young, such as Warby Parker, reported declines in average basket size and a preference shift to lower-priced SKUs.

At the same time, some premium or culturally resonant brands continue to outpace peers. Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade) raised guidance after robust handbag sales driven in part by Gen Z, while On reported roughly 25% sales growth and Ralph Lauren recorded a 17% increase in fiscal results—evidence that differentiated product, clear brand positioning and selective price gaps vs. luxury peers can sustain demand.

Analysis & implications

The immediate implication is a widening dispersion across retail formats: value retailers and chains with clear promotional capability are likely to capture incremental share as consumers hunt bargains, while mid-tier specialty retailers may face pronounced pressure. That shift can compress margins at some players if they must match promotional intensity to defend volumes.

Brand equity and cultural relevance are acting as counterweights to macro headwinds. Companies that translate cultural momentum into product drops, social-media visibility or collaborations (for example, Ralph Lauren’s collegiate collections) can keep engagement and sales elevated despite a tougher spending backdrop. The contrast between On’s strong footwear growth and Nike’s caution highlights how assortment and marketing cadence matter.

Labor-market dynamics are central to the outlook. The 25–34 cohort’s higher unemployment rate and weaker wage growth reduce discretionary spending elasticity and lengthen recovery times for categories that depend on younger buyers. Continued hiring freezes or incremental layoffs could amplify downside risks to consumer demand and raise the chance of broader economic slowing.

Finally, holiday timing behavior matters: a greater share of shoppers appear to defer purchases to promotional periods, which can concentrate sales into narrow windows and create inventory and logistics stress for retailers. How companies balance markdown strategy with brand positioning will be a key determinant of holiday-quarter operating performance.

Comparison & data

Company / Indicator	Recent signal	Notable figure
Atlanta Fed GDPNow	Q3 output estimate	4.0% (Q3 projection)
Chipotle	Lower visit frequency among 25–35	25% of sales from 25–35 cohort historically
On (footwear)	Outperformance	~25% sales growth (fiscal Q3)
Dutch Bros.	Traffic-driven growth	Same-store sales +7.4%; traffic ~+7%
NRF	Holiday forecast	3.7%–4.2% YoY; >$1 trillion Nov–Dec

These data points show stark divergence: macro output estimates remain positive even as multiple demand measures and company-specific metrics point to softer consumption in specific cohorts and categories. The table highlights who is winning in the current environment (value and a few niche brands) and who is being squeezed (fast-casual and mid-priced discretionary retailers).

Reactions & quotes

Analysts and company leaders framed the trends as both temporary and structural; they urged attention to cohort-level differences.

“There’s just a lot of headwinds building for the consumer… data we track was really bad in September and even worse in October.”

Michael Baker, D.A. Davidson (retail analyst)

Michael Baker emphasized that the accumulation of tariffs, slower job growth and household pressure is likely to weigh on holiday spending forecasts compared with earlier expectations. His firm now models holiday sales growth in the high-3% range year over year, below last year’s 4.3% increase.

“Value matters to everybody… feeling like you’re getting good value for your dollar is important.”

Chris Kempczinski, McDonald’s CEO

Kempczinski used McDonald’s Q3 results to argue that price-led offers are attracting higher-income customers as well as core guests—evidence that promotions can shift share across income bands. Several other executives reported similar cross-cohort movement.

“We’re starting to get some frostbite in the form of declining consumer spending.”

Allison Shrivastava, Indeed (senior economist)

Shrivastava warned that if job cuts become more significant, the current pullback among younger workers could deepen and risk tipping broader consumption into a recessionary path.

Unconfirmed

The exact scale of high-income shoppers’ trade-down across the entire retail sector is not fully verified; company comments are selective and may not represent broad market share shifts.
The long-term persistence of Gen Z’s pullback is uncertain—some firms report moderating baskets while others still see strong younger-customer engagement.
The impact of the federal government shutdown on the most recent labor-market data releases and how that will change the official unemployment picture is not fully resolved.

Bottom line

Consumer behavior entering the 2025 holiday season is mixed: underlying macro indicators show pockets of strength, but detailed, cohort-level data indicate meaningful strain among younger and lower-income households and an emerging trade-down among higher earners. The net effect is a more bifurcated retail landscape where value propositions and culturally resonant brands are more likely to win share.

Investors and retail managers should focus on three near-term signals: earnings commentary from Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Gap; November transaction trends and same-store-sales reports; and labor-market updates that clarify whether hiring freezes and layoffs intensify. Those indicators will determine whether holiday spending concentrates into deal windows or disappoints across the season.

Fewer burritos, more bargains: Consumers flash holiday warning signs