Walmart shares rose 312% under Doug McMillon — how rivals fared

Lead

Walmart’s share price climbed roughly 312% during Doug McMillon’s time as CEO, a span that began in February 2014 and ends with his planned step back at the end of January. The surge places Walmart well ahead of many traditional retail and grocery rivals, though Amazon and Costco delivered larger gains. McMillon’s tenure saw Walmart expand e-commerce, raise hourly wages and grow revenues from roughly $486 billion at the start of his term to about $681 billion in the most recent fiscal year. Incoming CEO John Furner inherits a company that has transformed both its physical and digital retail footprints.

Key takeaways

• Walmart stock rose about 312% between February 2014 and late 2025, outpacing several big-box and grocery rivals.
• Amazon and Costco outperformed Walmart over the same period, with Amazon up roughly 1,225% and Costco up more than 700%.
• Target’s shares rose about 60% in the period, while Kroger climbed ~265% and Albertsons about 16% since coming public in 2020.
• Dollar Tree and Dollar General returned roughly 104% and 85%, respectively, underperforming Walmart overall but with intermittent periods of relative strength.
• Walmart’s reported annual revenues increased from about $485 billion in fiscal 2017 to roughly $681 billion in the most recent fiscal year, and the company is on track to exceed $700 billion this year.
• Amazon surpassed Walmart in quarterly sales earlier in the year, reflecting differences in business mix such as cloud and advertising at Amazon.
• McMillon navigated the company through the Covid-19 pandemic, high inflation and tariff pressures while expanding e-commerce and raising wages for hourly workers.

Background

Doug McMillon became Walmart’s CEO in February 2014 at a moment when U.S. retail was beginning to shift toward omnichannel strategies. The company entered his tenure as a dominant low-price retailer with a large physical footprint but still-developing e-commerce capabilities. Early revenue figures were relatively flat: approximately $486 billion, $482 billion and $485 billion in the fiscal years ending January 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively. Those years reflected a transitional phase as Walmart invested in digital channels, supply chain modernization and price competitiveness.

Over the following decade Walmart accelerated investments in online shopping, pickup and delivery services, and higher wages for hourly employees. External forces shaped the trajectory: the Covid-19 pandemic drove consumers online in 2020–2021, historic inflation later pushed more price-sensitive customers to value retailers, and shifting global trade and tariffs affected costs and assortment. Competitors reacted with their own strategies—Target pursued a style-and-value mix, Costco leaned into membership-driven volume, and grocers such as Kroger and Albertsons explored consolidation to scale.

Main event

During McMillon’s roughly 12-year tenure, Walmart’s stock more than quadrupled in value, a result of steady operational gains and investor recognition of its e-commerce progress. The company reported accelerating revenue growth after 2017 and saw large jumps beginning in 2021 as online shopping habits changed. By the most recent fiscal year Walmart reported about $681 billion in annual revenue, roughly 40% higher than in McMillon’s first full fiscal year.

Market returns were uneven across the sector. Amazon and Costco outpaced Walmart on Wall Street—Amazon by an estimated 1,225% and Costco by more than 700%—reflecting different growth vectors and investor appetites for technology and membership models. Big-box rival Target posted meaningful gains during the pandemic but has experienced more stagnant sales in the past four years, weighing on its share performance compared with Walmart.

Grocery peers lagged in aggregate: Kroger rose about 265% and Albertsons—public since 2020—about 16%. Dollar retailers delivered mixed results with Dollar Tree up ~104% and Dollar General ~85% over the same span. Meanwhile, Amazon overtook Walmart in quarterly sales earlier in the year, underscoring that Walmart’s scale is now matched or exceeded in some metrics by e-commerce platforms with diversified revenue sources like cloud and advertising.

Analysis & implications

Walmart’s stock appreciation of roughly 312% under McMillon reflects a blend of operational improvement, strategic investment and favorable macro trends. The company rebalanced its large store base with digital capabilities—buy-online-pickup-in-store, last-mile delivery and marketplace expansion—that reduced the perceived gap with pure-play e-commerce rivals. Investors rewarded that repositioning, particularly as revenue growth accelerated after 2021.

However, Walmart’s second-place momentum versus Amazon highlights structural differences. Amazon’s cloud computing (AWS), advertising and third-party seller services have magnified its revenue and margin expansion, enabling much larger share gains. Walmart, by contrast, remains more concentrated in retail margins and store-led volume, which can produce steadier but smaller multiple expansion.

For incoming CEO John Furner, the challenge is sustaining growth without sacrificing margin or service levels. Furner, who led Walmart U.S. (the company’s largest division), played a direct role in many of the initiatives credited with recent gains. His task will be to integrate omnichannel operations, control logistics costs amid inflationary pressure, and fend off competition from both membership and e-commerce players.

Sector-wide, the divergence in stock returns suggests different investor bets: technology-enabled scale (Amazon), membership-driven volume and loyalty (Costco), and curated discount retail (Target). Grocers that relied more heavily on traditional store formats or faced integration hurdles have lagged, prompting consolidation attempts like the proposed Kroger-Albertsons merger that was blocked by regulators.

Comparison & data

The table shows relative performance across peers; differences reflect not only retail execution but also business mix, investor expectations and non-retail revenue streams. Walmart’s revenue growth—from roughly $485 billion in the mid-2010s to about $681 billion most recently, and the company being on track to surpass $700 billion—helped justify its multiple expansion, but Amazon’s diversified earnings power drove a much bigger valuation increase.

Reactions & quotes

Walmart and market observers responded to the leadership transition and stock performance with a mix of acknowledgement and guarded optimism.

Walmart said the board expressed gratitude for McMillon’s long service and noted that the company has a succession plan in place.

Walmart (company statement)

This company statement accompanied the retirement announcement and emphasized continuity: McMillon will remain as executive chairman and advisor as John Furner steps into the CEO role. The firm framed the change as orderly rather than sudden, aiming to reassure investors and employees about stability.

An industry analyst described Walmart’s gains as the product of steady modernization and strong U.S. sales execution under McMillon’s leadership.

Retail analyst (independent)

Analysts point to the combination of store footprint, accelerated online capabilities, and cost management as drivers of the stock move. They also caution that sustaining that trajectory without the same macro tailwinds will be a central test for Furner.

Unconfirmed

• Whether Walmart will sustain revenue growth above $700 billion next fiscal year depends on consumer demand and is not yet finalized.
• Precise near-term strategic shifts John Furner will enact as CEO (beyond continuity of current programs) have not been publicly detailed.
• The long-term impact of Amazon’s recent quarterly sales lead over Walmart on market share is still evolving and not fully quantified.

Bottom line

Doug McMillon’s tenure produced substantial shareholder returns and a reconfigured Walmart that blends a massive store base with growing digital capabilities. The roughly 312% increase in Walmart shares reflects operational gains, scale benefits and favorable macro conditions, particularly after 2021. Yet Walmart’s path diverged from Amazon and Costco because of differences in business mix—Amazon’s high-margin services and Costco’s membership model drove outsized investor returns.

John Furner inherits a company with clear strengths but also new tests: maintaining revenue momentum, managing margins under inflationary and competitive pressure, and responding to e-commerce rivals that have continued to expand. Investors will be watching whether Walmart can convert scale and omnichannel progress into sustained earnings growth that justifies current valuations.

Sources

• CNBC — coverage of Walmart stock performance and CEO transition
• Walmart Investor Relations — official filings and investor information (official)
• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — company filings and financial statements (official)
• Costco Investor Relations — performance and financial reports (official)