Gold surged to a fresh all‑time high on Tuesday, briefly topping $3,500 per ounce as traders priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. By , spot bullion eased to $3,475.33 after hitting an intraday peak of $3,508.50, leaving it up about 32% year to date. U.S. December gold futures rose 1.2% to $3,557.80.
Key Takeaways
- Spot gold set a record intraday high at $3,508.50 before stabilizing near $3,475.
- Futures (Dec delivery) gained 1.2% to $3,557.80.
- Markets assign roughly a 90% chance of a 25 bp Fed cut on Sept. 17, per CME FedWatch.
- Gold is up about 32% in 2025; it advanced 27% in 2024 and first cleared $3,000 in March 2025.
- SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 1.01% to 977.68 tons on Friday, the highest since Aug. 2022.
- Reuters’ July poll sees gold averaging $3,220 in 2025 and $3,400 in 2026.
- Silver hovered near 14‑year highs; platinum and palladium edged lower.
- Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is the key input for the Fed’s decision.
Verified Facts
Spot gold rallied to $3,508.50 early Tuesday before paring gains. At the latest print, it traded at $3,475.33. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 1.2% at $3,557.80.
Rate expectations remain the dominant driver. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see about a 90% probability the Federal Reserve will lower its policy rate by 25 basis points at the Sept. 17 meeting. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like gold.
Flows and positioning continue to build. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold‑backed ETF, reported a 1.01% increase in holdings on Friday to 977.68 tons, the highest level since August 2022. Central bank buying and safe‑haven demand amid geopolitical and trade risks have also supported prices in 2025, alongside a softer U.S. dollar.
Gold rose 27% in 2024 and first crossed $3,000 per ounce in March 2025, coinciding with heightened uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. A Reuters poll in July projected an average gold price of $3,220 in 2025 and $3,400 in 2026.
Across precious metals, spot silver slipped 0.5% to $40.49 after touching its highest level since September 2011 in the prior session. Platinum fell 0.2% to $1,397.06, while palladium dropped 1.5% to $1,120.21.
| Metal | Latest price (per oz) | Session move | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | $3,475.33 | Off record high | Intraday peak $3,508.50 |
| Gold (Dec futures) | $3,557.80 | +1.2% | As of Tuesday session |
| Silver (spot) | $40.49 | -0.5% | Near highest since Sept 2011 |
| Platinum (spot) | $1,397.06 | -0.2% | Soft tone |
| Palladium (spot) | $1,120.21 | -1.5% | Underperforms peers |
Context & Impact
Gold’s breakout underscores how sensitive the metal is to interest‑rate expectations and dollar moves. With inflation easing and growth mixed, markets anticipate the Fed will pivot to easier policy, a backdrop that typically benefits bullion over yield‑bearing assets.
Beyond rates, persistent central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar has provided a steady demand floor. Combined with geopolitical frictions and renewed discussion of trade tariffs, safe‑haven flows have intensified through 2025.
Equity and currency volatility could amplify gold’s appeal if incoming U.S. data surprises on the downside. Conversely, a stronger‑than‑expected labor report on Friday could temper rate‑cut odds and prompt consolidation after this year’s 32% advance.
Official Statements
Gold’s upswing will track how closely the Fed’s actions align with market pricing.
Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst, Nemo.money
Investment demand is rebuilding and central banks are likely to keep diversifying into gold, supporting further upside.
Giovanni Staunovo, Analyst, UBS
Unconfirmed
- The precise scale and timing of any additional U.S. trade tariffs and their ultimate impact on global growth remain uncertain.
- The final size of the September Fed move (or any deviation from current odds) will depend on incoming data, notably payrolls.
- Day‑to‑day ETF flow persistence is not assured; holdings can reverse with market sentiment.
Bottom Line
Gold’s push above $3,500 reflects powerful tailwinds from rate‑cut expectations, central bank buying, and safe‑haven demand. With the Fed’s Sept. 17 decision approaching, Friday’s U.S. jobs data could determine whether bullion extends its record‑setting run or pauses to consolidate.