In Week 11 the Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs 22-19 on Sunday, putting Denver at 9-2 and leaving Kansas City at 5-5 and facing the real possibility of losing the AFC West for the first time in a decade. The victory ended a run of Chiefs dominance in the division that extended nine straight seasons and pushed Denver into a commanding position with a multi-game cushion over its rivals. In the NFC the Los Angeles Rams scraped past the Seattle Seahawks to seize the NFC West lead and strengthen their case for a No. 1 conference seed. Across the league the results in Week 11 reshuffled divisional pecking orders and clarified several teams classed as contenders, sleepers and long shots entering Week 12.
Key takeaways
- The Broncos defeated the Chiefs 22-19, improving to 9-2 and gaining a three-game advantage in the loss column over Kansas City, which sits at 5-5.
- Kansas City has won the AFC West nine consecutive seasons; Denver’s win makes a Chiefs division crown far from guaranteed and likely pushes KC toward a wild-card path if they reach the postseason.
- The Rams edged the Seahawks to move into first place in the NFC West and lengthen a five-game winning streak that includes victories over several top opponents.
- The Broncos have won six consecutive games decided by four points or fewer, a notable improvement in close-game execution this season.
- The Patriots rank among the NFLs stingiest teams in points allowed and have benefited from a weak early schedule while Drake Maye produces MVP-level attention.
- The Colts hold a narrow lead in the AFC South but face a difficult remaining schedule that could erode that margin.
- Several projected wild-card battles remain wide open; teams listed as in the hunt include Houston, Kansas City, Baltimore, Miami and Cincinnati, with others within reach.
- No team was officially eliminated from playoff contention after Week 11, keeping the middle of both conferences competitive.
Background
The AFC West had been Kansas City territory for much of the past decade, with the Chiefs claiming the division title nine years running. That streak reflected sustained offensive excellence centered on quarterback Patrick Mahomes and frequent postseason relevance. Denver entered the 2025 stretch as an improved roster with defensive and special-teams plays that have flipped close games; the 22-19 result in Week 11 is the latest example of that swing in fortune.
In the NFC, the West has been a battleground among several franchises this season. The Rams have quietly assembled a strong resume, stringing together wins over high-quality opponents and building momentum toward the playoffs. The Eagles, meanwhile, have steadied their defense and remain a top NFC threat, preserving tiebreak advantages in head-to-head matchups.
Across both conferences parity has been a theme; teams such as the Patriots and Colts have benefited from favorable scheduling early on, while traditional powers like the Chiefs and Bills face stronger scrutiny when results dip. Models and projection tools, including The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, are updating probabilities weekly as results create new scenarios for division and wild-card races.
Main event
Denver’s 22-19 win over Kansas City was a tense, possession-focused affair with Denver converting crucial late-game opportunities and Kansas City unable to overcome missed chances. The Broncos’ defense held at key moments, while special teams and late offensive drives provided the margin in a one-possession result. The outcome snapped a long pattern of Chiefs dominance inside the division and magnified Denver’s margin in the loss column.
The Rams-Seahawks matchup was similarly tight, with Los Angeles narrowly escaping with a victory that lifted them to the top of the NFC West. The Rams leaned on a mix of veteran playmakers and timely defensive stands to preserve the win, knocking the Seahawks down in the standings and pushing the Rams closer to a potential No. 1 seed in the conference.
Other notable Week 11 action affected playoff math around the league: Buffalo required near-perfect performances from Josh Allen in recent weeks to cover defensive gaps; Pittsburgh remains in contention but confronts injury uncertainty around quarterback Aaron Rodgers and a tough upcoming slate; and the Jaguars have shown they can beat elite teams but have struggled to close out certain games, leaving their seeding unsettled.
Teams with strong midseason narratives include New England, which boasts one of the league’s five best scoring defenses and has taken advantage of a relatively weak schedule, and the Chargers, who remain unpredictable after marquee wins and puzzling losses. Each club’s upcoming three-week stretches will be pivotal in refining the playoff picture.
Analysis & implications
Denver’s margin in the AFC West is significant because, beyond the immediate standings, it changes how the Chiefs must allocate resources and strategize the rest of the regular season. Kansas City now faces a steeper path to the division title and would likely need to secure a wild-card berth for a postseason return, a scenario not seen in Patrick Mahomes’ career. That shift alters draft, trade and rest considerations for both franchises.
The Rams’ surge alters the NFC map more broadly. If Los Angeles maintains defensive steadiness and continues to win close games, they could claim home-field advantage deep into the playoffs, which historically improves Super Bowl odds. Their five-game run includes wins over top opponents such as the Ravens, Jaguars and 49ers, demonstrating the team’s ability to beat high-caliber competition on a repeatable basis.
For wildcard and seeding projections leaguewide, the combination of close-game success and schedule difficulty matters most. The Colts and Patriots have benefited from softer early slates, but their future positioning will be judged by results in higher-stakes matchups against elite teams. Conversely, teams like the Packers and 49ers, with more inconsistent stretches, must stabilize to avoid slipping in seeding scenarios where home-field tiebreakers and head-to-head results carry weight.
Injury uncertainty and quarterback availability remain key wildcards. Pittsburgh’s status if Aaron Rodgers misses time, or any late-season health developments for Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, would rapidly shift projections. Analysts and front offices are watching strength-of-schedule metrics and intra-conference head-to-heads as the next month of play will likely decide more divisions and wild-card slots than any earlier period this season.
Comparison & data
| Team | Notable metric or streak |
|---|---|
| Broncos | 9-2 overall; six straight wins decided by 4 points or fewer |
| Chiefs | 5-5 overall; nine-year AFC West title streak at risk |
| Rams | Five-game winning streak with wins over Ravens, Jaguars, 49ers, Seahawks and Colts |
The table above highlights immediate season-defining figures: Denver’s record and close-game proficiency, Kansas City’s slide to 5-5, and the Rams’ recent string of high-profile victories. These snapshots help explain why playoff probabilities and division outlooks shifted materially after Week 11.
Reactions & quotes
Postgame reaction emphasized the significance of the Denver win and the Rams’ momentum while teams and analysts weighed playoff implications.
We fought in tough spots and found ways to win; that resilience is what this team needs late in the year.
Broncos interim coach, postgame remarks (paraphrase)
The Broncos coach framed the victory as a collective resilience moment, noting Denver’s improved performance in close contests and the psychological lift of taking a decisive lead in the division. Analysts pointed to the win as a clear indicator that the Broncos no longer need to rely on unlikely comebacks to stay in contention.
We have to clean up execution and take care of the little things as every game is magnified from here on out.
Rams head coach, postgame remarks (paraphrase)
The Rams coach stressed attention to detail despite the win, highlighting that a narrow victory over a division rival still leaves room for improvement. That emphasis reflects how teams at the top of the standings balance short-term momentum with long-term playoff preparation.
There is still time to turn this around, but the margin for error just shrank significantly.
League analyst on national broadcast (paraphrase)
National commentators summarized the broader playoff consequence: Kansas City’s margin for error has been reduced, while Denver’s path to the division has opened. The assessment underscores how a single result can reshape forecast models and team strategies.
Unconfirmed
- Whether the Chiefs will ultimately reach the playoffs as a wild-card team remains a projection; the team has not been eliminated from division contention but faces a steeper route.
- Any specific seeding outcomes for the Rams as the NFC No. 1 seed are tentative and depend on multiple upcoming matchups and health statuses.
- The long-term impact of reported injuries, including questions about Aaron Rodgers availability, is still developing and has not been officially resolved.
Bottom line
Week 11 produced two of the season’s most consequential shifts: Denver’s victory over Kansas City placed the Broncos in clear control of the AFC West, and the Rams’ narrow win over Seattle advanced their claim as one of the NFC’s leading contenders. Both results force rival teams to re-evaluate strategies and raise the stakes for the coming weeks, when division races and wild-card battles will likely be decided.
With no teams officially eliminated after Week 11 and several clubs clustered near the middle of the standings, the next month of play should clarify which franchises are true favorites and which will be battling for survival. Fans and front offices should watch remaining schedules, head-to-head matchups and injury reports closely, because those factors will determine seeding scenarios and playoff paths as the regular season reaches its decisive stages.
Sources
- The New York Times / The Athletic — news report summarizing Week 11 results and projection notes
- The Athletic — sports analytics outlet; referenced projection model and Playoff Simulator (analytics)