U.S. stock futures opened near unchanged on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2026, after major benchmarks plunged in the prior regular session amid renewed concern about artificial‑intelligence disruption and a surprise tariff action. The 30‑stock Dow closed down roughly 822 points (about 1.7%), weighed in part by an approximate 13% slide in IBM, while the S&P 500 fell about 1% and moved into negative territory for the year. Nasdaq Composite declined about 1.1% as software and cybersecurity names led losses. Traders pointed to statements from the White House on global import levies and a high‑profile AI product event as key near‑term market drivers.
Key takeaways
- Dow futures were up about 33 points (nearly 0.1%) Tuesday morning; S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.1%.
- The Dow dropped about 822 points (≈1.7%) in the prior regular session; IBM shares fell roughly 13% and materially dragged the index lower.
- The S&P 500 slid about 1% and entered the red year‑to‑date; Nasdaq fell roughly 1.1%, with software and cybersecurity stocks among the worst performers.
- President Trump announced a global import levy initially described at 15% but implemented at a 10% Temporary Section 122 duty for 150 days, per U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance.
- Market attention is fixed on an Anthropic event (developer of Claude) and a slate of corporate reports this week, including Home Depot, Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake and Workday.
- After‑hours movers included Keysight (Q1 beat: $2.17 adj. EPS vs. $2.00 expected; revenue $1.60B vs. $1.54B est.) and Diamondback Energy (Q4 adjusted EPS about $1.74 on $3.38B revenue, below expectations).
- Investor positioning shows a rotation out of growth software names into defensive sectors; some strategists have pared risk exposure and await a decisive break of the current trading range.
Background
Markets entered the final week of February on edge after a volatile stretch dominated by debates over how artificial intelligence will reshape corporate revenue and margins. Tech and software firms — long-duration growth names sensitive to AI adoption narratives — have underperformed in recent months, while energy and staples have outperformed. That sector rotation has amplified concerns about breadth and whether the market can sustain a broad rally without leadership from technology.
Compounding those sectoral dynamics, policymakers moved unexpectedly on trade. President Trump had signaled a new global tariff plan over the weekend, initially describing a 15% blanket levy on imports; when duties were applied, U.S. Customs and Border Protection published guidance indicating a 10% ad valorem Temporary Section 122 duty for 150 days unless exemptions apply. The uncertainty around policy details and implementation timelines has added a fresh layer of selling pressure for internationally exposed companies and cyclical sectors.
Main event
On Monday, major U.S. averages fell sharply in regular trading: the Dow lost roughly 822 points (1.7%), the S&P 500 declined about 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped approximately 1.1%. IBM was a notable negative contributor, falling about 13% after investor concern about competitive and AI‑driven disruption to legacy tech firms. Software names such as Microsoft and CrowdStrike, and several cybersecurity and financial stocks, also recorded meaningful declines.
Futures trading on Tuesday showed a calmer start: Dow futures were up roughly 33 points (about 0.1%), S&P 500 futures were little changed and Nasdaq 100 futures edged higher by around 0.1%. Traders said caution prevailed as markets digested both the tariff notice and a high‑visibility AI event from Anthropic scheduled for the week — an announcement that could alter perceptions of technological displacement across industries.
Corporate news after the bell added to investor focus. Keysight Technologies exceeded Q1 expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS, sending its shares up more than 15% in extended trading. By contrast, Diamondback Energy’s Q4 results disappointed and shares fell in after‑hours trade. Smaller moves included an outsized rally in Vir Biotechnology after updated Phase 1 data for VIR‑5500 in metastatic prostate cancer.
Market participants also highlighted upcoming earnings that could be market‑moving: Home Depot results and consumer confidence data were due on Tuesday, while Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake and Workday were scheduled to report later in the week. These reports are seen as potential catalysts for clarifying growth prospects for AI beneficiaries and revealing near‑term demand trends.
Analysis & implications
The immediate market reaction reflects a mix of headline risk and positioning vulnerability. A tariff shock — even if implemented at a 10% Temporary Section 122 rate versus an initially stated 15% — raises input cost worries for import‑reliant firms and could pressure profit margins, particularly in retail and manufacturing supply chains. Investors typically reprice shares when policy uncertainty increases, which helps explain the broad decline across cyclicals and some tech stocks with high global revenue exposure.
AI‑related anxiety is amplifying sector moves. The anticipation around Anthropic’s product announcements has led some traders to front‑run possible disruption or competitive shifts in software tooling and cloud services. If the company demonstrates materially new capabilities, it could accelerate enterprise adoption cycles but also intensify concerns about displacement among incumbents. Conversely, muted announcements may calm fears and offer relief rallies for beaten‑up software names.
From a macro positioning perspective, the current episode underscores how market leadership matters. Several strategists argue that sustainable market upside will require renewed outperformance from technology, not just defensive outperformance from staples or energy. Until there is greater clarity on earnings trajectories and policy impacts, volatility is likely to remain elevated and investors may prefer to reduce leverage and concentration.
Finally, the earnings calendar this week is central to the near‑term outlook. Strong results and forward guidance from companies like Nvidia or Salesforce could re‑anchor expectations for enterprise AI spending and reverse some of the recent rotation. Weak guidance or signs of slowing demand would likely deepen the pullback and broaden the sell‑off beyond a narrow group of names.
Comparison & data
| Index | Intraday change (prior session) | Approx. move |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | −822 points | −1.7% |
| S&P 500 | −1.0% | entered YTD negative |
| Nasdaq Composite | −1.1% | tech‑led weakness |
The table above summarizes the prior session’s major index moves. The Dow’s larger point decline reflects both breadth weakness and outsized moves in specific components such as IBM. Percentage moves across indices were more uniform, demonstrating a generalized risk‑off impulse rather than a disorderly crash confined to one sector.
Reactions & quotes
“The market has lost momentum. It’s in this trading range … and there’s been a really unhealthy rotation.”
Warren Pies, co‑founder and strategist, 3Fourteen Research
Pies, who moved U.S. equities to neutral earlier this month, said investors should consider reducing risk and wait for a clear market breakout, ideally led by technology, before adding exposure.
“If none of that’s true, and they’re still growing, and they have the potential to grow and use AI, we think now you’ve gone from kind of a growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price to a value stock.”
Sarat Sethi, managing partner, Douglas C. Lane & Associates
Sethi said he owns Salesforce and Workday into earnings, viewing current valuations — roughly 13x forward for Salesforce per FactSet — as potentially attractive if customer retention and growth hold.
Unconfirmed
- Whether the tariff action will be extended beyond the 150‑day Temporary Section 122 window remains unclear and dependent on subsequent policy decisions and exemptions.
- The extent to which Anthropic’s announcements will materially disrupt incumbent enterprise software vendors is speculative until product details and customer adoption signals appear.
Bottom line
This week’s market moves reflect an intersection of policy shock and technology uncertainty. The tariff notice increased cost concerns for import‑dependent firms, while AI narrative shifts are prompting both defensive selling and selective buying in names tied to the technology’s adoption.
Investors should watch the incoming earnings and the Anthropic event closely: positive results or meaningful adoption signals could restore leadership to tech and ease the pullback, while disappointing guidance or broader policy escalation would likely extend volatility. For many portfolio managers, the current environment argues for measured risk reduction and emphasis on diversification until a clearer directional signal emerges.