Lead
In November the national median rent for apartments fell to $1,367, down 1.0% from October and marking the fourth straight monthly decline, according to Apartment List. At the same time the national multifamily vacancy rate held at a record 7.2% after peaking in October on an index that goes back to 2017. Analysts point to a lingering wave of newly completed supply and softer demand from younger adults — especially those aged 18–34 — as principal drivers. The combination is pressuring rents, widening concessions and weighing on public apartment REIT shares.
Key Takeaways
- Median national rent: $1,367 in November, down 1.0% month-over-month and down 1.1% from November 2024.
- Rents are 5.2% below their 2022 peak, reflecting sustained cooling across the market.
- Multifamily vacancy rate: 7.2% in November, remaining at the index’s record high set in October (index since 2017).
- Household formation among 18–34 year olds has weakened; CoStar reports about 32.5% of that cohort are living with family, a multi-year high.
- New supply remains elevated despite construction slowing; Yardi raised its 2025 and 2026 under-construction estimates by 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively.
- Regional weakness varies: Austin faces heavy new deliveries, Las Vegas is hit by weaker tourism and jobs, and Boston faces biotech federal funding cuts and fewer international students.
- Public apartment REITs including AvalonBay, Equity Residential and Camden Property Trust are down year to date, reflecting investor concerns about softness.
Background
The U.S. multifamily sector saw an unprecedented surge in construction in the years after 2020, producing a pipeline of new units that continued to come online through 2024 and into 2025. Those deliveries were timed against a post-pandemic reshuffling of demand that initially kept occupancy elevated, but the balance shifted as more units hit the market and job-market gains for younger workers slowed. Apartment List, CoStar and Yardi each track different slices of that dynamic; their combined reporting shows a market transitioning from scarcity-driven rent growth to a period of normalization and outright decline in many metros.
Historically, fall seasonality often produces rent cooling as leasing activity slows; this year the seasonal drop amplified due to structural and cyclical headwinds. High construction volumes in gateway and Sun Belt cities have outpaced household formation in some metros, while localized economic shocks — from softer tourism in Las Vegas to reduced federal biotech funding in Boston — have further pressured demand. Meanwhile, the core renter cohort of younger adults has not formed households at pre-pandemic rates, reducing the usual pipeline of new leases.
Main Event
Apartment List reported a 1.0% drop in the national median rent from October to November, taking the median to $1,367 and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. The report also noted a 1.1% decline from the same month a year earlier and a 5.2% retreat from the 2022 peak. Vacancy held at 7.2% in November after an October high, underscoring that elevated availability is not yet receding.
CoStar highlighted unusually steep month-over-month falls, calling November one of the largest monthly median rent pullbacks in its 15 years of tracking. The research house and Apartment List attribute much of the softness to a pullback in demand among younger renters: a sizable share of 18–34 year olds are living with family rather than forming independent households, reducing fresh leasing activity that typically supports rents.
Market-level variations are pronounced. Austin is experiencing outsized downward pressure because of continued multifamily deliveries; Las Vegas has been hit by weaker tourism and its spillover effect on local jobs; Boston’s rental market is strained by a decline in federal biotech funding and fewer international students. Landlords nationwide are increasingly offering concessions to attract tenants, and Yardi data show renters shifting search interest toward more affordable Midwest markets such as Cincinnati, Atlanta and Kansas City.
Analysis & Implications
The near-term picture is one of supply still filtering into the market while demand softens — an imbalance that favors renters in negotiations and pushes landlords to offer concessions. For owners and operators, this means margin compression and the need to reprice new leases or provide inducements. Public REITs have reflected this pressure in share performance, signaling investor concern over both cash-flow impact and the timeline for stabilization.
Developers face a slowdown in starts, and industry trackers expect construction activity to taper into 2026 and 2027. However, a sizable under-construction pipeline means oversupply risk persists in the near term. Yardi’s upward revision to its 2025 and 2026 under-construction estimates suggests that completions could be heavier than previously forecasted, delaying recovery in occupancy and rent growth in the most delivery-heavy metros.
Regional divergence will be a chief theme for investors and policy makers. Markets with concentrated industry or education exposure — Boston with biotech and international students, Las Vegas with tourism — are more vulnerable to local shocks. Conversely, Midwest markets drawing search activity may see relatively firmer leasing and slower rent declines, altering where institutional capital targets acquisition and development.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | November 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| National median rent | $1,367 | –1.0% MoM, –1.1% YoY |
| Change from 2022 peak | –5.2% | Since 2022 peak |
| Multifamily vacancy rate | 7.2% | Record index high (since 2017) |
| 18–34 living with family | 32.5% | CoStar estimate |
| Yardi under-construction revision | 2025 +6.8%, 2026 +2.5% | Revised higher from prior quarter |
These figures show that rent relief is measurable but uneven. The combination of moated vacancy and continued deliveries is the proximate cause of falling national medians; local economies and construction timing determine how pronounced the effect is in any given metro.
Reactions & Quotes
Industry analysts emphasized the role of younger household formation and the lingering supply wave in shaping the data.
‘That 18- to 34-year-old group … I think it’s up to 32.5% of those now are living with family, and that’s the highest it’s been in a while.’
Grant Montgomery, CoStar (national director, multifamily analytics)
CoStar’s national director framed the demographic trend as a key demand-side constraint that has diminished the core renter base for new leases.
‘Earlier this year, it appeared that annual growth was on track to flip positive … that rebound stalled out and reversed course during a particularly slow summer.’
Apartment List researchers (rental market analysis)
Apartment List researchers noted that a brief mid-year recovery gave way to renewed weakness, particularly through the summer leasing period.
‘The Midwest, in particular, drew more attention than ever, signaling that many of its “hidden gem” markets are no longer a secret.’
Yardi (renter search report)
Yardi highlighted shifting renter search patterns toward lower-cost Midwest metros, which may soften pressure on rental demand in higher-cost cities.
Unconfirmed
- Precise timing for market stabilization: while construction is slowing, the exact quarter when vacancy will decline materially is not confirmed and depends on employment and household-formation trends.
- Attribution of rent declines to single local causes: some metro declines cite tourism or biotech funding, but local outcomes are the result of multiple interacting factors and not yet fully audited.
- Future REIT performance: current share declines reflect market sentiment, but longer-term returns will depend on individual company balance sheets and operational responses, which remain uncertain.
Bottom Line
The U.S. rental market entered late 2025 with a clear shift from scarcity to moderation: rents are down from recent highs and vacancies remain elevated as new units continue to be delivered. Younger adults delaying independent household formation is a central demand-side factor magnifying the supply pressure. For renters this environment creates more options and better negotiating leverage; for owners and investors it implies tighter near-term cash flows and a need to manage concessions and wage growth impacts.
Watch metrics over the next two quarters: completions and moves-in data will show if the under-construction pipeline still has enough runway to sustain high vacancies, and employment trends for 18–34 year olds will indicate whether household formation resumes. Policymakers and planners should note the geographic divergence — stabilization nationally can mask significant local stress where job markets or student flows decline.
Sources
- CNBC — news article summarizing Apartment List, CoStar and Yardi data (media report).
- Apartment List — national rent and vacancy research (rental market research).
- CoStar — multifamily analytics cited for household formation and rent movement (industry analysis).
- Yardi — renter search trends and under-construction supply revisions (market research report).